Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - Washington Commanders 2022 Outlook

Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Washington Commanders.

With Carson Wentz under center, what will we see from this Commanders team this season? Can they be a surprise contender in the NFC East?

Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Commanders based on current ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2022.

Featured Promo: Our friends at RIVAL Fantasy have created fun and unique DFS games including over/under contests and Fantasy Bingo. Use promo code BALLER to get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($199 value), and a $50 risk-free deposit. Play Now!


Fantasy Football Breakout: Jahan Dotson

Someone has to be the No. 2 receiving option for the Commanders, right? We know Terry McLaurin is The Dude, but someone has to take on the No. 2 role on this team. They can't just funnel a 100% target share to McLaurin. The good news for rookie receiver Jahan Dotson is that there isn't really anyone who naturally seems to fit into that role.

I mean, there's Curtis Samuel, but in five games last season, Samuel was targeted nine times. I get that he's fast and that he's got experience playing in this system, but at some point, we've got to admit that Samuel's best used as a third or fourth option and stop thinking he'll see 100 targets. The one time he did see that many targets, he posted his worst catch rate, at just 51.4%.

And then there's...Cam Sims, Dyami Brown, and Dax Milne. Shallow receiving corps here. Add in that tight end Logan Thomas is currently on the PUP list and has exactly one good season and is 31-years-old and you can see that the runway for Dotson is wide open.

Dotson showed in college that he can make positive plays in a variety of ways. Earlier in his Penn State career, he was a big-play guy, ranking top five in the Big Ten in yards per reception in 2019 and 2020. Last year, he showed more versatility, catching 91 passes for 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns, but seeing his YPR fall from 17.0 to 13.0. The Nittany Lions worked to get Dotson involved in all phases of the passing game.

With plenty of speed to make things happen after the catch, I expect Dotson to be a valuable piece in this offense, especially considering that a lot of defensive attention will go towards McLaurin, potentially opening up space for Dotson. He should also be the team's deep threat.


Fantasy Football Bust: Brian Robinson Jr.

Some people are hyping up Brian Robinson. I'm not really sure why these people are doing this. It's nothing really against Robinson. It's just that the Commanders have Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic and I don't really see a role developing for Robinson because of that.

Last season, Gibson had 258 carries for Washington. The rest of the team's running backs combined for 138, with 18 of those coming in the game that Gibson missed. So if we look just at the 16 games that Gibson played, he saw 68.2% of the positional carries on the team.

Then there's McKissic, who had 48 of those carries and who is still on the team. McKissic's big impact was in the passing game, as he was targeted 53 times. Gibson saw 52 targets. The rest of the team's running backs combined for 22 targets.

Robinson had a good season last year for Alabama, but his college production mainly came in that senior season. He also played five years at Bama and he's already 23 as a rookie. Gibson is only 24. This isn't one of those situations where a third-round rookie comes in and displaces a veteran player—Gibson's still in his prime.

I'm sure Robinson will get some looks, but not nearly enough for him to have standalone fantasy relevance without an injury. Robinson is currently being drafted pretty late, with an average ADP across various sites of RB66 per FantasyPros. That's probably a good place to draft him.

There are still analysts who are high on him. If you look at FantasyPros' breakdown of where individual analysts have him ranked, you can see people like RotoBaller's own Scott Engel and Pierre Camus are both very high on him. Engel has him RB41. Camus has him RB42.

That's just way too high. It's a recipe for disappointment. I'm not drafting Robinson unless I'm in a very deep league and he's there around RB65.


Fantasy Football Lock: Terry McLaurin

No wide receiver is completely quarterback-proof. If I were forced to play QB for the Commanders, Terry McLaurin wouldn't get very many opportunities because the ball would never get to him. McLaurin has shown he can produce with pretty much anyone throwing him the ball. In 2019, he was catching passes from Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins. In 2020, from Haskins and Alex Smith. And last year, from Taylor Heinicke.

Now, he'll be catching passes from Carson Wentz. Four different primary QBs in four years. That hasn't really negatively impacted McLaurin. After catching 58 passes for 919 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie, McLaurin followed that up in 2020 with 87 catches on 134 targets for 1,118 yards and four scores, then last year he was targeted 130 times with 77 catches for 1,053 yards and five touchdowns.

If—and yeah, it's a big if—Wentz can play a full season, McLaurin should have the best season of his career. Last year per PlayerProfiler, McLaurin ranked 70th among receivers in catchable target rate and 43rd in target quality rate. He had a 1,000-yard season despite the targets he received not being particularly good.

Meanwhile, Carson Wentz was pretty bad last year with his accuracy, ranking 29th in accuracy rating. Back when Wentz was playing in Philly, accuracy was a hallmark of his game. If he can rekindle some of that, the sky's the limit for McLaurin. And if he can't?

Then we've seen McLaurin succeed with poor quarterback play. He's the most reliable player on this offense and should be considered a strong fantasy WR2 play with upside.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts


Tyrese Haliburton6 mins ago

Hopes To Play As Early As Thursday
Kevin Porter11 mins ago

Jr. Still Without Return Date
Marcus Smart18 mins ago

Unsure If He'll Be Back Before All-Star Break
LeBron James23 mins ago

Expected To Play On Tuesday
Chad Green30 mins ago

Blue Jays Reportedly Sign Chad Green
Ben Griffin42 mins ago

Set To Make AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Debut
Beau Hossler53 mins ago

Looks To Repeat Success At Pebble Beach
Kurt Kitayama1 hour ago

Searching For Form
Dexter Fowler2 hours ago

Announces Retirement
Russell Knox5 hours ago

Looks To Stay Consistent At Pebble Beach
PGA5 hours ago

Matt Fitzpatrick An Elite Fantasy Option At Pebble Beach
Adam Fugitt5 hours ago

Set For A Very Tough Test
Yusaku Kinoshita6 hours ago

Japanese Finisher Yusaku Kinoshita Set For UFC Debut
Taylor Pendrith7 hours ago

Seeking Better Fortune At Pebble Beach
Damian Lillard7 hours ago

Continues Scoring Tear With 42 Points
Justin Lower7 hours ago

Sets Up Well For Pebble Beach
Davis Riley7 hours ago

Not On Many Radars For Pebble Beach
Dejounte Murray7 hours ago

Sets New Record With 40 Points
Matthew NeSmith7 hours ago

Trying To Turn Back Clock At Pebble Beach
Mikal Bridges7 hours ago

Leads All Scorers With 29 Points
Justin Rose7 hours ago

Needs To Avoid Mistakes At Pebble Beach
Luka Doncic7 hours ago

Wows The Crowd Again
Deni Avdija7 hours ago

Notches Career-High 25 Points
Stephen Curry7 hours ago

Has 38 Points With Eight Treys
Anthony Edwards8 hours ago

Logs Another 30-Point Outing
De'Aaron Fox8 hours ago

Leads Kings With 32 Points
Nick Blankenburg8 hours ago

Still Troubled By An Upper-Body Injury
Adam Boqvist8 hours ago

Remains Day-To-Day
Jake Allen8 hours ago

Set For His 29th Start
Torey Krug8 hours ago

Keeps Good Run Going
Kyle Connor8 hours ago

Ends Dry Spell With Two Assists
Mark Scheifele8 hours ago

Caps Off January With A Two-Goal Game
José Leclerc15 hours ago

Jose Leclerc The Front-Runner For Rangers Closer Role?
Chad Pinder15 hours ago

Reds Agree To Minor-League Deal With Chad Pinder
STL15 hours ago

Jake Neighbours Logs His First Career Multi-Point Game
Shohei Ohtani15 hours ago

Mets Expected To Make Bid On Shohei Ohtani In 2023
Zack Britton16 hours ago

Angels Have "Strong Interest" In Zack Britton
Josh Morrissey16 hours ago

Scores Twice In Jets Win
Josh Hart18 hours ago

Will Play Versus Atlanta
Jusuf Nurkic18 hours ago

Available Against Hawks Monday
Trae Young19 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus Portland
Miguel Vargas19 hours ago

Has A Chance To Start At Second Base
Bo Horvat19 hours ago

Islanders Acquire Bo Horvat
Grayson Rodriguez19 hours ago

Expected To Be In Opening Day Rotation
Alex Kirilloff20 hours ago

Hoping For Normal Spring Training
Andrew Wiggins21 hours ago

Returns To Starting Five
Rui Hachimura21 hours ago

To Start On Monday
Daniel Gafford21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday
Luka Doncic21 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
T.J. Warren21 hours ago

To Miss Monday's Game
Ben Simmons21 hours ago

To Miss Monday's Contest
Brock Purdy21 hours ago

Will Have Surgery On Elbow
Brock Purdy22 hours ago

Out Six Months With UCL Tear
Cam Talbot22 hours ago

Might Not Be Ready After The All-Star Game
Tage Thompson22 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Logan Stanley22 hours ago

Scratched On Monday
Connor Hellebuyck22 hours ago

Looks To Continue Success Over St. Louis
Robert Thomas23 hours ago

Remains Out On Monday
Jordan Binnington23 hours ago

Tries To Get Back On Track Monday
Matt Barnes1 day ago

Marlins Acquire Matt Barnes From Red Sox
Zack Greinke1 day ago

Royals Re-Sign Zack Greinke
Darren O'Day1 day ago

Announces Retirement
Kyle Pitts1 day ago

' Rehab "On Schedule"
Taylor Hall1 day ago

Pots Lone Bruins Goal Sunday
Frederik Andersen1 day ago

Beats Boston With 24 Saves
Brent Burns1 day ago

Extends Point Streak In 1,300th Game
Nicklas Backstrom1 day ago

Grabs First Goal Of The Season
Morgan Rielly1 day ago

Finally Gets His First Goal
John Tavares1 day ago

Celebrates 1,000th Game With Two Assists
Tyler Boyd2 days ago

Has Two Catches On Sunday, Exits Due To Injury
Travis Jankowski2 days ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Rangers
Josh Harrison2 days ago

Signs With the Phillies
Gleyber Torres2 days ago

Avoids Arbitration
New York Yankees2 days ago

New York Yankees Will Have Shortstop Battle
DJ LeMahieu2 days ago

Ready For 2023
Kadarius Toney2 days ago

Questionable To Return To AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Being Evaluated For A Head Injury
Mecole Hardman2 days ago

Cleared For AFC Championship
Josh Johnson2 days ago

Won't Return To The NFC Championship
Travis Kelce2 days ago

Will Suit Up For AFC Championship
Josh Johnson2 days ago

Exits Sunday's Game Versus Philly
Brock Purdy2 days ago

Returns To NFC Championship Game
Josh Johnson2 days ago

Enters With Brock Purdy Questionable To Return
Justin Herbert2 days ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Travis Kelce2 days ago

Experiencing Tightness, Will Be Game-Time Decision
Kenta Maeda2 days ago

Not Expected To Have Restrictions This Spring
Elijah Mitchell2 days ago

Ruled Out For NFC Championship
Aaron Rodgers2 days ago

Packers Prefer To Trade Aaron Rodgers?
Tom Brady2 days ago

Dolphins Not Expected To Pursue Tom Brady
Kyler Murray2 days ago

Not Expected To Be Ready For 2023 Season
Jonathan Taylor2 days ago

Has Successful Ankle Surgery
Travis Kelce2 days ago

Expected To Play In AFC Championship
Brock Burke3 days ago

Could Be In The Closing Mix
Hirokazu Sawamura3 days ago

Returns To Japan
Nick Senzel3 days ago

Expected To Be Starting Center Fielder
Tua Tagovailoa4 days ago

Still In Concussion Protocol