Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Philip Rivers, Devin Singletary, O.J. Howard

November 17, 2019

Craig Rondinone looks at some fantasy football booms and busts for Week 11 lineups. These NFL players could be high-upside flex plays, or options to avoid.

Fantasy football players are going to have to go under the radar to find booms and busts this week because many of the NFL’s superstars will be on bye.

Fantasy footballers will not be getting any Aaron Jones touchdown runs or Daniel Jones touchdown tosses this week, nor will they be getting any 300-yard passing games from Russell Wilson or 100-yard rushing games out of Derrick Henry. But even without these fantasy studs on the field, there will be plenty of cost-effective booms and costly busts for fantasy owners to be on the lookout for.

Here are my under-the-radar booms and busts for Week 11!  Good luck, RotoBallers!

Week 11 Lineup Booms

Philip Rivers (LAC, QB) vs. KC (MON)

Rivers is coming off a game where he appeared to be trying to throw the ball into the hands of Oakland defensive backs instead of the hands of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, so his price tag in DFS contests is likely at its lowest point. Kansas City lost its sack leader Emmanuel Ogbah to a season-ending pectoral injury, so Rivers will not be facing the nonstop pressure he did when he dealt with Oakland’s front seven last Thursday. Rivers has also had success against the Chiefs the last two times he played them (737 passing yards and five touchdown passes). Fantasy players should see the Rivers they saw in September who averaged 300 passing yards per game and not the incarnation from the past three weeks that has not been able to hit the broad side of solar system. Look for 310 passing yards and three touchdown tosses from Rivers this Monday night.

Tyler Boyd (CIN, WR) at OAK

Boyd has been underwhelming for fantasy owners this season, especially inside the red zone. Boyd has had a harder time finding the end zone (one TD on 57 receptions) than I had getting out of the friend zone with my now wife. Boyd’s best game of the season came against a banged-up Arizona secondary (10-123-1), and this week the situation is almost a carbon copy of that one. Oakland’s 30^th-ranked pass defense is reeling from the losses of safety Karl Joseph and cornerback Lamarcus Joyner. Even with understudy Ryan Finley throwing the spirals, Boyd should have one of his biggest games of the season this Sunday.

Devin Singletary (BUF, RB) at MIA

Break up Miami! Working off back-to-back wins, Ryan “Fitzmagic” Fitzpatrick and the improved Dolphins are no longer flailing fish. Here’s the thing: Miami is still trotting out the 30^th-ranked run defense in the NFL, and rookie runner Singletary is averaging 6.4 yards per carry and touching the ball more than he was earlier in the campaign. Buffalo should jump out to a lead in this game and never look back, meaning Singletary will be running downhill a lot in the second half against a Dolphins Defense that might wave the white flag when the game is out of reach. I think 125-150 combined yards and a couple scores is within the realm of possibility for this fantastic first-year player.

The Carolina Panthers Defense vs. ATL

Carolina’s defensive line and linebackers were overpowered by Green Bay’s O-line and running back Aaron Jones in Week 10. It was a downright display of ineptitude. Coming off their bad showing against the Packers, the Panthers are reasonably priced in DFS leagues, despite leading the league in sacks and being tied for fourth in turnovers. Atlanta will not be able to expose Carolina’s run-defense weaknesses because the Falcons will be trotting out third-stringer Brian Hill as their top tailback, and terrific tight end Austin Hooper will also miss the game due to his sprained knee. Matt Ryan is going to have trouble keeping the offense afloat without Hooper and RB Devonta Freeman around him. I think Carolina is a best buy the fantasy football geek squad can get behind.

Week 11 Lineup Busts

Nelson Agholor (PHI, WR) vs. NE

The rematch of Super Bowl LII should be interesting and exciting, but do not bank on Agholor making this the game where he breaks the 100-yard barrier for the second time in 2019. Cover corner extraordinaire Stephon Gilmore will be lined up against him and has been one of the integral members of New England’s top-ranked defense due to the way he locks down No. 1 receivers. Agholor should be the freshest he has been during his sorry season coming off a bye, but he will have a difficult time getting Gilmore off of him. I would not expect more than 50 yards from Agholor, and he might produce much less.

O.J. Howard (TB, TE) vs. NO

Howard had his best fantasy performance of the season last Sunday as head coach Bruce Arians finally found a way to include his talented tight end into the offensive game plan. I think this has the makings of a one-and-done, though. Only two tight ends have had more than 55 receiving yards against the Saints secondary this season, and Howard himself has only amassed 70 yards in three career contests versus his division rival. I need to see a bigger sample size from Arians before I am convinced that he will continue to focus on Howard in the passing attack, and this is a week I can see Howard subjected to blocking more than receiving.

Sony Michel (NE, RB) at PHI

Michel has been harder to trust this season than Thor’s brother Loki. One week he will run for a trio of touchdowns, then another week he will have 11 yards on nine carries. Predicting his fantasy production on a weekly basis is tougher than predicting which suit Michael Irvin will wear next on television. Michel has to find cracks inside a Philadelphia defense that is fourth against the run and feeling energized after a bye. He also has to split time and touches with James White and Rex Burkhead on top of it. The math does not add up to a decent fantasy day for him on my calculator.

Adrian Peterson (RB, WAS) vs NYJ

Old man Peterson had 108 rushing yards in his last game before Washington’s bye and averaged over five yards per carry over his past four games. Couple problems, though. One is that the oft-injured and unproven Derrius Guice is returning, and that is not good news for Peterson’s touch total. The other issue the Jets run defense has actually improved since trading run stopper Leonard Williams. New York has moved up to second in the NFL in stopping the run on the strength of allowing less than three yards per carry over their last three games. Between a lessened workload and an opponent that held Saquon Barkley to ONE YARD in 13 rushing attempts, Peterson is not primed to do much this weekend.

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