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Fantasy Football Advice: Week 10 Matchups, Picks & Projections


BEST OF THE REST WEEK 10: Players outside the top 5 who will lead you to victory

 

Quarterback:

Top 5: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck

 

Russell Wilson vs Vikings, November 4, 2012Whom to Play: Russell Wilson (Projection: 289 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 47 rushing yards)

Why:  The Atlanta Falcons pass defense is terrible.  They have given up 300+ yards and two TDs in three of eight games thus far, and have given up two passing TDs in seven of those eight.  Their run defense has been average, but expect them to load the box against the “depleted” Seahawks WR core. As I’ve stated before, the Seahawks offense is based off play-action.  Expect Russell Wilson to continue to flourish, and have himself a top-3 fantasy day.  The combination he provides in real life and fantasy is something to marvel at-- thus far in 2013, he is the sixth-rated passer in the NFL, seventh in TD passes and second in rushing yards for QBs.  The man does it all, and expect that to continue against a soft Atlanta defense.  The only way I see this not working out is if Matt Ryan and the Falcons let this game get out of hand, and Seattle chooses to run this game out. 

 

Running back:

Top 5: Adrian Petersen, Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, Knowshon Moreno

 

Whom to Play: Chris Johnson (Projection: 174 yards, 1 TD, 27 receiving yards, 1 TD)

Why: CJ1K (Formerly CJ2K) gets to bring himself back into fantasy glory this week. Facing the 30th-ranked rush defense in fantasy football, he is about to explode. Jacksonville’s defense has given up 100+ yards rushing in six of eight games, and at least one rushing TD (in their last three, they’ve given up three, two and two) in six of eight games. Remember my Frank Gore pick against Jacksonville? Expect Chris Johnson to surpass that. Tennessee fed him the rock last week versus St. Louis and he rewarded them with 150 yards and two TDs.  Ladies and gentlemen, welcome Chris Johnson back to fantasy relevance for the remainder of the season. It gets better, though, for unlike Gore, CJ has been a part of the Titan passing game, getting four or more targets in each of the last four games, and eclipsing 20 receiving yards in all of those games (with two receiving touchdowns).  Expectations are big this week, and I think those expectations are warranted.  Note: Shonn Green may be a touchdown vulture moving forward, as it’s expected he will receive short-yardage carries.

 

Wide Receivers:

Top 5: Calvin Johnson, Desean Jackson, A.J Green, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson

 

Whom to Play: Brandon Marshall (Projection: 8 catches for 117 yards and 1 TD)

Why: Jay Cutler is back, and that means Brandon Marshall is about to get his typical 7-10 targets. Detroit did a good job (7/49) in their first meeting against Marshall, but that was in Detroit.  In the four home games on the sloppy sod of Soldier Field, B-Marsh has been nothing short of spectacular , averaging seven catches for 83.5 yards and scoring five touchdowns in four games (note: The Saints game killed his yardage average). Detroit's defense is based on pressure by their front four, and the Bears now have the ability to block (shocking, I know).  The backend of the Lions defense has been poor (26th in WR fantasy points allowed), and I expect the Bears to try and exploit that.  With Cutler's groin a bit tender, you can expect a lot of the offense to be run out of the shotgun, providing the added time needed to let Marshall dominate.  *** Please note I'm from Chicago and a BIG Bears fan, but this projection is based on our numbers, not my hopes...***

 

Tight Ends:

Top 5: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten Tony Gonzalez

 

Whom to Play: Antonio Gates (Projection: 6 catches for 78 yards and 1 TD)

Why:  Denver’s defense has been playing pretty well of late.  But expect a lot of yards to be racked up by both teams.  Philip Rivers loves Antonio Gates, as he's the third-most-targeted TE in the NFL, and 13th in the NFL (including WRs) in receptions.  With Champ Bailey covering Keenan Allen, Gates may have a field day running down the seams. If  the Chargers O-line can keep Rivers fairly clean, he and Gates will remind all of us of the pre-injury Rivers/Gates connection.

 

Worst of the Best Week 10: Players sure to fail your expectations.

 

Quarterback to sit: Matt Stafford

Why: Stafford on the road has been fairly average as a QB, and the Bears defense historically has played Calvin Johnson well, leaving Stafford some very average weapons to play with.  Reggie Bush out of the backfield could be in for a big day (rushing and receiving), but expect Stafford to continue his average outing on the road, on the sloppy track and against a Bears defense that can slow down Megatron.

 

Running backs to sit: Knowshon Moreno

Why: The Chargers rushing defense is actually very good (ninth in fantasy points allowed to RB).  Last week they got ripped by the Skins and their read option attack.  But let's be honest, Peyton Manning isn’t running the read option.  Denver's success in the running game has come from their ability to spread the field with their excellent WRs.  The Chargers have faced similar attacks (Dallas, Philly, Indy) and held their ground in the run game ( Dallas: 77, Philly: 66, Indy: 55).  They do, however, allow the backs to catch the ball out of the backfield.

 

Wide receiver to sit: Dez Bryant

Why: Dez Bryant is a stud, no doubt about it.  But Sunday he faces a 12th-ranked Saints defense vs. WRs.  But let's be honest, that shouldn't scare people away from playing him.  So why didn’t I pick Jordy Neslon who has to catch wounded ducks from Seneca Wallace?  Because of the recent report from Fox Sports Southwest saying that Dez may have a bulging or herniated disc. He won't be 100%, and that is enough to scare me away.  He’s a baller, but expect him to be outside the top 10 performers this week.

 

Tight end to sit: Tony Gonzalez

Why: We're showing this game to be a rough one for the Falcons.  Consider that the Seattle defense is 12th in points allowed to TEs, second in points allowed to QBs, third in sacks and first in interceptions... All this adds up to a rough day for the Falcons, and that rough day should be felt all around.  The entire offense will struggle, and that’s not good for Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez this week.

 

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In case you missed them, here are some other RotoBaller Week 10 articles.  Let’s win some leagues!

 

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As always, you can find all of our weekly waiver wire recommendations on our famous waiver wire pickups list. And if you haven’t joined the best and largest fantasy football chat room community on the web, check out the RotoBaller.com Fantasy Football chat room for live fantasy advice, sit/start questions, and more.

 




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