RADIO
Aidin Ebrahimi looks at one fantasy basketball breakout, bust, and lock from the Los Angeles Lakers for the 2023-24 NBA season.
Today we will be looking at the Los Angeles Lakers; one of the best teams in the NBA who are looking to finally win their 18th ring. That's right, it's another edition of RotoBaller's Fantasy Basketball Breakouts, Busts, and Locks for the 2023-24 season.
LeBron James and company started the 2022-23 season as possibly the worst team in basketball after a 2-10 start, but they did a complete 180 and looked like the best team in basketball after the All-Star break. Their swarming defense and hot offense carried the team all the way to the Conference Finals, where they lost in perhaps the closest sweep in NBA history to the Nuggets.
In this article, we will highlight the breakout, bust, and lock picks for the 2023-2024 Lakers.
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Los Angeles Lakers Fantasy Breakout: Austin Reaves
Many years from now, NBA fans will sit down and wonder, how did everyone let Austin Reaves fall into the hands of the Lakers? The Pistons in particular should be kicking themselves over this. They were planning to draft Reaves in the 2021 draft, but he declined and instead decided to play for the team he supported as a child, the Lakers.
He ended his rookie season by averaging 18 points a night in his final four games, which was a sign of things to come. Like everyone else on the 2022-23 Lakers, he flipped the switch after the All-Star break, averaging 18 points, 5.7 assists, and 3.1 rebounds a night with great efficiency.
Austin Reaves came in at No. 66 in ESPN's annual #NBARank list.https://t.co/bESNJVHrtG pic.twitter.com/KzgkU81V63
— Lakers Nation (@LakersNation) October 13, 2023
However, in order to prove yourself as the real deal in this league, you have to come through when it really matters most. Transitioning from the regular season to playoff basketball is a very daunting task for rising NBA stars, but for Reaves, it was pretty easy. He averaged 20.6 points, 5.1 assists, and 4 rebounds per game in his final seven playoff games, shooting 52.2% from the field, 57.1% from three, and 26-26 from the line.
Let's look at what happened to some young players in recent years who greatly outperformed their regular season numbers in the playoffs. Caris LeVert averaged 21 PPG in the 2019 playoffs after averaging 13.7 in the regular season. He averaged 18.7 PPG (+5) in the next season. Ja Morant averaged 30.2 PPG in the 2021 playoffs after averaging 19.1 in the regular season.
He averaged 27.4 PPG (+8.3) in the next season. Jalen Brunson averaged 21.6 PPG in the 2022 playoffs after averaging 16.3 in the regular season. He averaged 24 PPG (+7.7) in the next season. Out of these three, a 2019-20 LeVert-level leap seems pretty realistic, albeit with more efficiency.
Los Angeles Lakers Fantasy Bust: Christian Wood
Remember when Montrezl Harrell signed with the Lakers and fell off a cliff? That reminds me of Christian Wood. Though they are different players, their impact is pretty much the same. In 2020, Harrell had just won the Sixth Man of the Year award, but his value actually decreased due to a disgraceful playoff performance in the Bubble.
After the Clippers didn't actively try to resign him, he signed with the Lakers on a relatively cheap deal. He started the season well, but after playing terribly in his final 21 games, he barely got any playing time in the playoffs and was deemed expendable. He was then shipped off to Washington and now his career is ruined.
Darvin Ham on Christian Wood: I don’t judge my relationship based off other people’s opinion of certain individuals. I deal with you directly and I have my own relationship with him and I know what he’s capable of and what he’ll do for me.”
H/T @MarcJSpears pic.twitter.com/wdoMxLisYr
— Washed LakersvsHaters 🅿️ (@notlakersgm) October 13, 2023
Wood is going through the same thing here. Stop me when you've heard this before: He signed with the Lakers on a relatively cheap deal despite playing well and having good stats because the Mavericks deemed him to be expendable and didn't make an active effort to resign him.
Players like Wood and Harrell just don't contribute to winning (Wood has averaged a -1.9 Plus/Minus Net Per 100 Possessions in the last two seasons) and GMs around the league know this. That's why they don't get these lucrative deals that they think they're worth, which causes them to have to settle for cheap deals with a contender.
In all three preseason games so far the Lakers have started the likes of Rui Hachimura, Taurean Prince, Jaxson Hayes, and Jarred Vanderbilt over Wood, and for his ADP you can get players who will actually start and have a clear role with their squads. You can even get Hachimura himself, which is a safer investment than Wood, as Wood is likely to have a non-existent role come fantasy playoff time like Harrell.
Los Angeles Clippers Fantasy Lock: Anthony Davis
LeBron or AD? Both are top-10 players but both have many concerns heading into the season. LeBron is entering his age-39 season and suffered an injury that kept him out for a while at the end, while Davis is infamous due to his injury history since the 2020-21 season. In the end, I'm picking Davis because you truly never know when "Father Time" strikes.
LeBron has managed to evade it for such a long time but eventually, all the greats will fall off. LeBron will never be "bad", and I will still expect him to be an All-Star-level player for the foreseeable future. But at some point, he will fall to an under-25 PPG scorer. Even Tom Brady saw a sizable dip in his production last season.
Hot Take:
When both are healthy, Anthony Davis is a BETTER PLAYER than Joel Embiid. pic.twitter.com/fkuRILfqd3
— Wemby Central (@WembyCentral) October 4, 2023
That's why I'm more comfortable with AD, he's just 30 and actually played in more games (56) than LeBron (55) last season. He was averaging 32.4 points and 14 rebounds a night for a month before he got hurt. He also averaged 26 and 13 in the fantasy playoffs weeks. Also, another clear advantage that AD has over LeBron is stocks (steals + blocks).
LeBron used to be pretty good at racking them up (2.9 stocks per game career-high) but he has fallen off dramatically in this category, averaging a career-low 1.5 stocks per game this season. AD averaged 3.1 last season and has never averaged below 2.9, meaning that AD's fewest stocks are the same as LeBron's stocks at his peak. If you are lacking in this category, AD is a good choice, even considering his injury history.
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