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Fantasy Analysis: Early Post-Post-Hype Sleeper Breakouts

Remember when Chris Davis was a huge prospect? Remember how we got excited about him in 2008 and how quickly we forgot about him after that? He hasn't forgotten. And now, at age 27, this dude is producing like a top-shelf stud. In his last 160 games (139 last year/21 this year as of 4/24/13) his line looks like this:  .284 BA, 86 R, 165 Hits, 40 HR, 107 RBI. Davis is a prime example to never forget about players hyped years before they have a chance to hit their prime….and he’s putting those who gave up on him from ’09-’11 on bended knees praying for patience.

Other young arrivers to the show have reached maturity and they're clamoring to join your team.

Clay Buchholz on May 21, 2012Clay Buchholz impressed the fickle fantasy baseball community in his second major-league start on September 1, 2007, with a 9K no-hitter against the Orioles. He immediately climbed the 2008 fantasy draft boards and promptly fell on his face. He’s pitched two shutouts since ’07, both against the Orioles (’10 & ’12).  But this guy is only 28 years old and, judging by his progress from last season into this one (especially against the long ball this season), appears to be honing his craft. He entered 2013 with an ominous 666 innings pitched (666.1 to be exact), but he's erased any thoughts of a curse with 29 K in 30 IP, a 0.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 4-0 record, while giving up only one homer so far. Buchholz was somewhere around #90 on most SP draft boards in early March. As of today, he’s easily in the top five. It’s time to start believing, folks-- not just in Buchholz, but in the Sox in general.

Homer Bailey was #5 on Baseball America’s list of top prospects in 2007, touted as “The next great Texas fireballer in the tradition of Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens.” So far, those comparisons haven't hit their mark. But the soon-to-be 27-year-old began his emergence last year in his sixth MLB season (13-10, 3.68 ERA, 168 K). When all is said and done, he may be the best #3 starter in the league this season. Find the unbelieving manager who owns him in your league and make your pitch.

Opening Day 074 Justin Upton croppedJustin Upton makes this list, but nobody needs to hear what he’s done so far this season. After his breakout 30/20 season in 2011, he moved into the top 5 on most draft lists. Last season’s regression from our expected production made him a steal in many leagues this season. If you have him, keep him. If not, figure out a way to get him, especially in keeper leagues. He’s only 25 years old, and already has 117 HR and 83 SB to go with a career .278 BA on his six-year résumé. This guy is going to be a beast for many years to come.

Tradin’ Stuff

Here's some quick hits on possible trade targets, and some guys to sell off if you can: Mitchell Boggs's window as the Cardinals closer has closed. If you need a closer and Edward Mujica is available, pounce! David Freese is struggling mightily with the wood, but don't count the 2011 World Series MVP out just yet. Tim Lincecum is going to rebound into his former self at some point this season. Count on it and trade while the picking is easy. Carlos Gomez did some work last week and has his average up to .300. Trade J.P. Arencibia and his 7 HR today for his perceived value. If you can get Desmond Jennings cheap, complete the transaction.

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Be sure to check out RotoBaller's Ultimate Waiver Wire Watch List for gems who might be hiding in your free agent pool!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brandon Ingram

a Late Scratch on Sunday
RJ Barrett

Good to Go Sunday
Robert Williams III

Ready to Play Sunday
Malik Monk

Won't Play Against Nets
DeMar DeRozan

Sits Out Sunday's Game
Brandon Ingram

Available Against Magic
Neemias Queta

Cleared to Play Sunday
Derrick White

Won't Play Sunday
Jeremy Swayman

Remains in Bruins Crease Sunday
NHL

Nicholas Paul Available Against Predators
Nikita Kucherov

Remains Out Sunday
Mason Lohrei

Unavailable Sunday
Dmitri Voronkov

Considered Week-to-Week
Artyom Levshunov

Out With Fractured Hand
Sidney Crosby

Practices Fully on Sunday
Geno Smith

"No Doubt" That Geno Smith is Jets' Starting Quarterback
George Kittle

49ers Hopeful George Kittle Will be Ready for Week 1
NFL

Eric McAlister Diagnosed With Fractured Foot
Zach Charbonnet

Could Return to a Wide-Open Backfield
Brian Thomas Jr.

Uncertain Future Could Make Him a Buy-Low Candidate
Isaiah Jackson

is Ruled Out for Sunday
Kyle Larson

Is Likely to Pay Off for DFS at Martinsville
Bobby Portis

to Miss Third Straight Game
Luke McCaffrey

Is Luke McCaffrey Still Worth Stashing on Dynasty Benches?
Ryan Rollins

is Absent on Sunday
Christopher Bell

Could Have Another Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
Kyle Kuzma

Remains Out on Sunday
Myles Turner

Gets Downgraded to Out
William Byron

Is A Threat to Win Again at Martinsville
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Elijah Sarratt's Contested-Catch Ability is a Double-Edged Sword
Jayson Tatum

is Upgraded to Available
Chase Elliott

is A Solid DFS Option for Martinsville Lineups
Jaylen Brown

to Miss Second Straight Game
Roman Wilson

a Cut Candidate for Dynasty Managers Facing Roster Decisions
Chase Briscoe

has Plenty of Upside for DFS Lineups at Martinsville
Patrick Mahomes

Andy Reid Doesn't Offer Timeline on Patrick Mahomes
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Unlikely to See High-Leverage Opportunities in Near Future
Tre' Harris

The Buy-Low Window for Tre' Harris Could Be Closing
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Is Dont'e Thornton Jr. Still Worth Rostering in Dynasty Formats?
Braelon Allen

Has Clear Buy-Low Upside Coming Off a Lost Year
Michael Mayer

Is Michael Mayer a Sneaky Buy-Low Candidate for Dynasty Managers?
KaVontae Turpin

Blocked Off from a Significant Offensive Role in Dallas
Jacob deGrom

Feels "Much Better," Hopeful he Can Start This Week
Josh Allen

"Good to Go" After Foot Surgery
Cole Hutson

Delivers Two Assists Saturday
Mikhail Sergachev

Ties Mammoth Record With Four Assists
Connor McDavid

Reclaims Scoring Lead With Three-Point Effort
Dmitri Voronkov

Unavailable Sunday
Aliaksei Protas

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Saturday Night
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Martinsville?
Josh Anderson

Limited Due to Illness Saturday
Ryan Preece

Is A Solid DFS Option for Martinsville Lineups
Josh Berry

Could Josh Berry Pay Off for Tournament DFS Lineups At Martinsville?
DAL

Nathan Bastian Makes Early Exit Saturday
Carson Hocevar

May be Too Inconsistent to Start in Martinsville DFS Lineups
Dejounte Murray

Uncertain for Sunday
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering for DFS At Martinsville?
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Won't Play Against Wizards
Pascal Siakam

Iffy for Sunday
Chet Holmgren

Available Against Knicks Sunday
Norman Powell

May Miss Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable Sunday
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Win at Martinsville
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Martinsville
Tyler Reddick

Should Come Back Down to Earth at Martinsville
Joey Logano

Will Be Strong at Martinsville
Deshaun Watson

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Bubba Wallace Looking to Rebound at Martinsville
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Showing Progress, Qualifies Fifth at Martinsville
Gabriel Vilardi

has a Two-Point Performance
Ivan Demidov

Collects Two More Points on Saturday
Dylan Cease

Fans 12 in Blue Jays Debut on Saturday
Kyler Murray

Dynasty Value Gets New Life With Move to Minnesota
Rachaad White

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Shane Wright

Exits Early Saturday
Connor Zary

Remains Out Saturday Night
Noah Laba

a Game-Time Call Sunday
Jonathan Quick

to Remain Unavailable Sunday
Stefon Diggs

Still a Free Agent With April Approaching
Joel Hanley

to Miss Rest of Season
Alvin Kamara

Workload Expected to Look Drastically Different in 2026
Andrew Vaughn

Needs Hand Surgery, Expected to be Out 4-6 Weeks
Jacob deGrom

"Confident" he Will Make his Next Start
Trey Benson

Facing Uphill Battle for Playing Time in Arizona
Jacob deGrom

Scratched From Saturday's Start Due to Neck Stiffness
Jeferson Quero

Brewers Calling Up Catching Prospect Jeferson Quero
Deyvison De Los Santos

Marlins Promote Deyvison De Los Santos to Major Leagues
Shea Langeliers

Hits Two Home Runs on Opening Day
Kevin Gausman

Picks Up No-Decision But Strikes Out 11 on Opening Day
Tanner Bibee

Day-to-Day, Could Make his Next Start
Shane Baz

Orioles Agree to Five-Year Extension
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Making Season Debut on Friday Against Angels
Tiger Woods

Involved In Rollover Car Crash
Tanner Bibee

Shoulder Issue Not Considered Serious
Joe Pyfer

Set For UFC Seattle Main Event
Israel Adesanya

Returns At UFC Seattle
Maycee Barber

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak To Eight
Alexa Grasso

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Dominic Canzone

a Top Pickup After Two-Homer Game
Niko Price

In Dire Need Of Victory
Michael Chiesa

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Chase DeLauter

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Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Makes a Statement on Opening Day With 10 Strikeouts
Kevin McGonigle

has Four Hits in Impressive MLB Debut
Nico Hoerner

Cubs Agree to Six-Year Deal With Nico Hoerner
Jacob Misiorowski

Shows Off his High-Strikeout Upside in Opening Day Win
Ryan Fox

a High-Upside Value in Houston
Marco Penge

a Boom-or-Bust Option in Houston
Aaron Rai

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Jason Day

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Harris English

Eyes a Bounce-Back at the Texas Children's Houston Open
Ben Griffin

Looks for Turnaround at the Texas Children's Houston Open
Rickie Fowler

Brings Strong Form Into Texas Children's Houston Open
Ryan Gerard

Can Continue Rolling at Texas Children's Houston Open
Pierceson Coody

Bounces Back at Valspar Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

Trying to Get Back on Track at Texas Children's Houston Open
Michael Thorbjornsen

Playing Well Heading to Texas Children's Houston Open
Harry Hall

Looking for Consistency at Texas Children's Houston Open
Brooks Koepka

Continues Building Momentum
Scottie Scheffler

Withdraws From Texas Children's Houston Open
Luke Clanton

Might Have a Problem in Houston
Sam Stevens

Happy to See Houston This Week
Keith Mitchell

Tries to Rebound After The Players Championship
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Returning This Week at Houston
Wyndham Clark

Trending in the Wrong Direction Heading to Houston
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Seeking Better Luck in Houston This Weekend
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