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Fantasy Analysis: Early Post-Post-Hype Sleeper Breakouts

Remember when Chris Davis was a huge prospect? Remember how we got excited about him in 2008 and how quickly we forgot about him after that? He hasn't forgotten. And now, at age 27, this dude is producing like a top-shelf stud. In his last 160 games (139 last year/21 this year as of 4/24/13) his line looks like this:  .284 BA, 86 R, 165 Hits, 40 HR, 107 RBI. Davis is a prime example to never forget about players hyped years before they have a chance to hit their prime….and he’s putting those who gave up on him from ’09-’11 on bended knees praying for patience.

Other young arrivers to the show have reached maturity and they're clamoring to join your team.

Clay Buchholz on May 21, 2012Clay Buchholz impressed the fickle fantasy baseball community in his second major-league start on September 1, 2007, with a 9K no-hitter against the Orioles. He immediately climbed the 2008 fantasy draft boards and promptly fell on his face. He’s pitched two shutouts since ’07, both against the Orioles (’10 & ’12).  But this guy is only 28 years old and, judging by his progress from last season into this one (especially against the long ball this season), appears to be honing his craft. He entered 2013 with an ominous 666 innings pitched (666.1 to be exact), but he's erased any thoughts of a curse with 29 K in 30 IP, a 0.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 4-0 record, while giving up only one homer so far. Buchholz was somewhere around #90 on most SP draft boards in early March. As of today, he’s easily in the top five. It’s time to start believing, folks-- not just in Buchholz, but in the Sox in general.

Homer Bailey was #5 on Baseball America’s list of top prospects in 2007, touted as “The next great Texas fireballer in the tradition of Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens.” So far, those comparisons haven't hit their mark. But the soon-to-be 27-year-old began his emergence last year in his sixth MLB season (13-10, 3.68 ERA, 168 K). When all is said and done, he may be the best #3 starter in the league this season. Find the unbelieving manager who owns him in your league and make your pitch.

Opening Day 074 Justin Upton croppedJustin Upton makes this list, but nobody needs to hear what he’s done so far this season. After his breakout 30/20 season in 2011, he moved into the top 5 on most draft lists. Last season’s regression from our expected production made him a steal in many leagues this season. If you have him, keep him. If not, figure out a way to get him, especially in keeper leagues. He’s only 25 years old, and already has 117 HR and 83 SB to go with a career .278 BA on his six-year résumé. This guy is going to be a beast for many years to come.

Tradin’ Stuff

Here's some quick hits on possible trade targets, and some guys to sell off if you can: Mitchell Boggs's window as the Cardinals closer has closed. If you need a closer and Edward Mujica is available, pounce! David Freese is struggling mightily with the wood, but don't count the 2011 World Series MVP out just yet. Tim Lincecum is going to rebound into his former self at some point this season. Count on it and trade while the picking is easy. Carlos Gomez did some work last week and has his average up to .300. Trade J.P. Arencibia and his 7 HR today for his perceived value. If you can get Desmond Jennings cheap, complete the transaction.

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Be sure to check out RotoBaller's Ultimate Waiver Wire Watch List for gems who might be hiding in your free agent pool!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Davante Adams

Not Expected to Play in Week 18
Stephon Castle

Active on Wednesday
Tyler Kolek

Elevated to Available on Wednesday
Tari Eason

Questionable Versus Brooklyn
Tobias Harris

Not Expected to Suit Up on Thursday
Ariel Hukporti

Available For Wednesday
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Questionable Versus Brooklyn
Mason Plumlee

Undergoes Groin Surgery
Zach Collins

Out at Least 10 More Days
Jerami Grant

Unavailable Again on Wednesday
Geno Smith

Won't Play in Week 18
Aaron Rodgers

Considering Playing Beyond 2025?
Sean Monahan

Sits Out Wednesday's Game
Zach Werenski

Misses Fourth Straight Game Wednesday
Dougie Hamilton

Questionable Wednesday
Radko Gudas

Expected to Remain Out Wednesday
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Play in Week 18
Ilya Lyubushkin

Back From One-Game Absence Wednesday
Alex Lyon

to Miss "Bit of Time"
Erik Cernak

Rejoins Lightning Lineup Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey

Trending to Play in Week 18
Kon Knueppel

To Make Return For Charlotte On Wednesday, In Starting Lineup
Jalen Hurts

Eagles Expected to Rest Jalen Hurts, Most Starters in Week 18
George Kittle

49ers Will be "Very Surprised" if George Kittle Doesn't Play on Saturday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Ruled Out for Regular-Season Finale
CFB

Lane Kiffin Interested in Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby at LSU
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Questionable Wednesday
Adam Gaudette

Unavailable Wednesday
Darcy Kuemper

Activated From Injured Reserve
Alex Lyon

Nursing Lower-Body Injury
William Karlsson

to Miss Olympics
Jack Eichel

a Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Jason Dickinson

Hurt Versus Islanders
Mitchell Robinson

Sits Out Wednesday's Game
Grayson Allen

Listed as Doubtful Wednesday
Mason Plumlee

Ryan Kalkbrenner, Mason Plumlee Remain Out Wednesday
Kon Knueppel

Likely to Return Wednesday
Miles Bridges

Listed as Questionable Wednesday
Isaiah Hartenstein

Misses Second Straight Game
Devin Vassell

Ruled Out for Wednesday
Stephon Castle

Iffy for Wednesday
Josh Giddey

Sidelined "at Least a Few Weeks"
Desmond Bane

Might Miss Wednesday's Game in Indiana
Jalen Suggs

on the Injury Report Again for Wednesday Night
Connor Dewar

Available Tuesday
TOR

Chris Tanev to Miss Time With Lower-Body Injury
Dakota Joshua

Out With Kidney Problem
MON

Samuel Montembeault Returns to Canadiens Crease
Erik Karlsson

Good to Go Tuesday
William Nylander

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Auston Matthews

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
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Deuce Knight Officially Entering Transfer Portal
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Kewan Lacy Expected to Be Full-Go Against Georgia
Stefon Diggs

Facing Strangulation, Assault Charges
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Chip Kelly Named Northwestern Offensive Coordinator
Riley Leonard

Will Start Against the Texans
Bijan Robinson

Explodes for 229 Total Yards, Two Touchdowns on Monday Night
Davante Adams

Officially Out on Monday Night
Drake London

Active Against Rams
Justin Herbert

Won't Face Broncos in Week 18
Marcus Mariota

Considered "a Stretch" to Play in Week 18
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Dealing With Significant Ankle Injury
Dak Prescott

Will Play in Week 18
Lamar Jackson

Week 18 Status "to be Determined"
Joe Mixon

Won't Return This Season
T.J. Watt

a Long Shot to Play in Week 18?
CFB

Penn State Working to Hire D'Anton Lynn as Next Defensive Coordinator
Joe Burrow

Will Play in Week 18 Against the Browns
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Omar Cooper Expected to be Full-Go for Rose Bowl
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Marcus Freeman Staying with Notre Dame for 2026 Season
CFB

Star Wideout Cam Coleman Entering Transfer Portal
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Jay Hill Expected to be Next Michigan Defensive Coordinator
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Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
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Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer

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