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Fantasy Analysis: Early Post-Post-Hype Sleeper Breakouts

Remember when Chris Davis was a huge prospect? Remember how we got excited about him in 2008 and how quickly we forgot about him after that? He hasn't forgotten. And now, at age 27, this dude is producing like a top-shelf stud. In his last 160 games (139 last year/21 this year as of 4/24/13) his line looks like this:  .284 BA, 86 R, 165 Hits, 40 HR, 107 RBI. Davis is a prime example to never forget about players hyped years before they have a chance to hit their prime….and he’s putting those who gave up on him from ’09-’11 on bended knees praying for patience.

Other young arrivers to the show have reached maturity and they're clamoring to join your team.

Clay Buchholz on May 21, 2012Clay Buchholz impressed the fickle fantasy baseball community in his second major-league start on September 1, 2007, with a 9K no-hitter against the Orioles. He immediately climbed the 2008 fantasy draft boards and promptly fell on his face. He’s pitched two shutouts since ’07, both against the Orioles (’10 & ’12).  But this guy is only 28 years old and, judging by his progress from last season into this one (especially against the long ball this season), appears to be honing his craft. He entered 2013 with an ominous 666 innings pitched (666.1 to be exact), but he's erased any thoughts of a curse with 29 K in 30 IP, a 0.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 4-0 record, while giving up only one homer so far. Buchholz was somewhere around #90 on most SP draft boards in early March. As of today, he’s easily in the top five. It’s time to start believing, folks-- not just in Buchholz, but in the Sox in general.

Homer Bailey was #5 on Baseball America’s list of top prospects in 2007, touted as “The next great Texas fireballer in the tradition of Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens.” So far, those comparisons haven't hit their mark. But the soon-to-be 27-year-old began his emergence last year in his sixth MLB season (13-10, 3.68 ERA, 168 K). When all is said and done, he may be the best #3 starter in the league this season. Find the unbelieving manager who owns him in your league and make your pitch.

Opening Day 074 Justin Upton croppedJustin Upton makes this list, but nobody needs to hear what he’s done so far this season. After his breakout 30/20 season in 2011, he moved into the top 5 on most draft lists. Last season’s regression from our expected production made him a steal in many leagues this season. If you have him, keep him. If not, figure out a way to get him, especially in keeper leagues. He’s only 25 years old, and already has 117 HR and 83 SB to go with a career .278 BA on his six-year résumé. This guy is going to be a beast for many years to come.

Tradin’ Stuff

Here's some quick hits on possible trade targets, and some guys to sell off if you can: Mitchell Boggs's window as the Cardinals closer has closed. If you need a closer and Edward Mujica is available, pounce! David Freese is struggling mightily with the wood, but don't count the 2011 World Series MVP out just yet. Tim Lincecum is going to rebound into his former self at some point this season. Count on it and trade while the picking is easy. Carlos Gomez did some work last week and has his average up to .300. Trade J.P. Arencibia and his 7 HR today for his perceived value. If you can get Desmond Jennings cheap, complete the transaction.

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Be sure to check out RotoBaller's Ultimate Waiver Wire Watch List for gems who might be hiding in your free agent pool!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jimmy Butler III

Sidelined Thursday
Jayden Daniels

Practices in Full on Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Ruled Out Thursday Against the Wizards
Lamar Jackson

Expected to Play Against Steelers
Quentin Grimes

Is Ready to Return on Thursday
Deshaun Watson

Not Expected to Play This Year
Paul George

Will Not Play Against the Warriors
Joel Embiid

Upgraded to Questionable for Thursday
CFB

Joe Sloan Expected to be Kentucky's New Offensive Coordinator
Justin Herbert

Chargers "Really Optimistic" That Justin Herbert Will Play on Monday
Michael Porter Jr.

Will Not Play Thursday
CFB

Lane Kiffin Working to Keep Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker at LSU
Noa Essengue

Out for the Season
Mike Evans

has "Real Chance" to Return in Week 14
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected To Miss 2-4 Weeks
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Realistic Expectation is for Amon-Ra St. Brown to Return Next Week
Jalen Carter

Won't Play in Week 14 After Having Shoulder Surgeries
Justin Herbert

Expected to Practice Either Thursday or Friday
Mike Evans

Practicing Again Thursday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Questionable With Rib Contusion
Marcus Smart

Sidelined Thursday Against Raptors
Los Angeles Clippers

Chris Paul Set To Part Ways With Clippers
CFB

Brian Daboll a Candidate for Penn State Head-Coaching Job?
Yves Missi

Sidelined vs. Wolves
Quentin Grimes

Uncertain To Play Against Golden State
Bilal Coulibaly

Likely Out Multiple Weeks With Oblique Strain
Karel Vejmelka

Records Impressive Shutout
JJ Peterka

Rocks Ducks With Four-Point Effort
Cole Caufield

Extends Point Streak With Power-Play Assist
Matvei Michkov

Delivers Two Assists Wednesday
Jake Oettinger

Grabs Fourth Consecutive Victory With Shutout
Ryan Leonard

Tallies Four Points in Wednesday's Win
Cam York

Exits Win Early
Jakob Poeltl

to Sit Out Thursday's Game
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Third Straight Game Thursday
Jonathan Kuminga

Iffy for Thursday
Jimmy Butler III

Listed as Questionable for Thursday
Paul George

Questionable Thursday
Joel Embiid

Unlikely to Play Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Doubtful to Play Thursday
Kyren Williams

Expected to Play in Week 14
Davante Adams

Expected to Play Despite Missing Wednesday's Practice
Kyle Tucker

Visits With Blue Jays
Woody Marks

Texans Say Woody Marks Will be Fine
Rasmus Ristolainen

to Miss at Least One More Week
Drew Doughty

Logs Full Practice Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Reds Bring Back Closer Emilio Pagan on Two-Year Deal
Jeff Skinner

Remains Sidelined Wednesday
Petr Mrazek

Out 2-3 Weeks
Tyler Seguin

Likely Done for the Season
Neal Pionk

Returns to Jets Lineup
J.J. McCarthy

Practices in Full, on Track to Return in Week 14
Cedric Mullins

Rays Agree on One-Year Deal
Mark Andrews

Agrees to Three-Year Extension With Ravens
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Considering Trading Freddy Peralta
Kyle Schwarber

Reds Serious About Adding Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency?
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Officially Questionable for Thursday Night
Omarion Hampton

"on Track and Looking Good" for Week 14
CFB

Brent Key Signing Five-Year Deal to Remain at Georgia Tech
Joey Bosa

Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
Bryce Young

Panthers Expected to Pick Up Bryce Young's Fifth-Year Option
Deshaun Watson

Browns Opening Practice Window for Deshaun Watson
CFB

Brian Hartline Expected to Land USF Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Collin Klein Expected to be Top Target for Kansas State if Head-Coach Job Opens
CFB

Chris Klieman Considering Stepping Down at Kansas State
Aaron Rodgers

Appears to be Healthier Heading into Week 14
Jalen McMillan

Expected to Have his 21-day Practice Window Opened
Alexander Wennberg

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Michael Callahan

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Michael Rasmussen

Makes Early Exit Tuesday
Scott Wedgewood

Exits Early With Back Problem
Evander Kane

Expected to Be Fine After Skate Cut
Tyler Seguin

Injured Versus Rangers
Sean Monahan

Expected to Play Thursday
Nathan Walker

Out for Eight Weeks
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
CFB

Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles

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