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Marvin Jones may not be the primary receiver in Detroit, but what does that mean for his value? Richard King takes a look at his value in dynasty leagues for the 2019 fantasy football season. Should you buy him or sell him as a long-term prospect?
The next edition of Dynasty Price Check moves to Detroit. Kenny Golladay's stock keeps shooting up in dynasty leagues but what about lesser-hyped wideout Marvin Jones? A lost second half due to injury could provide a buy-low opportunity but a sluggish Lions offense may not inspire greater numbers than he has already produced in the past. What is his outlook for 2019 and beyond?
When it comes to dynasty football leagues, you know there is no offseason. Without the in-season worries of setting lineups and waiver wire claims, dynasty league enthusiasts can focus their efforts on making trades to improve their teams and preparing for rookie drafts. Offseason narratives can be difficult to navigate, but we are here to help!
For all discussions regarding their dynasty value, let's assume you are playing in a 12-team, one-quarterback dynasty league with 0.5 PPR scoring. As always, player values can shift quickly in dynasty leagues so be sure to stay on top of the NFL news cycle when proposing trades.
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Overview
Marvin Jones
Team: Detroit Lions
College: California
Age: 29
Height/Weight: 6'2", 198 pounds
2012 NFL Draft: Round 5, Pick 166 overall
Jones started his career with the Cincinnati Bengals but was always the second option opposite A.J. Green who was drafted a season before. Jones was an effective second option and was certainly given the opportunity to be an effective receiver.
In the 2016 season, Detroit Lions moved to sign Jones on a five-year $40 million contract, where he was given the primary role of getting downfield. Golden Tate was the target monster on shorter routes, and Anquan Boldin was the big-bodied receiver.
In this first season for Detroit, quarterback Matthew Stafford threw in his direction 103 times, with Jones catching 55 of those passes for 930 yards and four touchdowns. 2017 was Jones's best season statistically, finishing the season with 61 receptions for 1,101 yards and nine touchdowns.
With the appointment of new coach Matt Patricia, the team scaled back the offense to be a more run orientated team that they were previously, while the emergence of fellow receiver Kenny Golladay as the primary receiver has also limited Jones' output. Jones finished the season with 35 receptions for just 508 yards and five touchdowns.
Since Jones has moved to the Lions, he has consistently attracted a good share of the targets on the offense, with at least 18% share in his time on the field, and has been entrusted with getting downfield with an average depth of target of 14.6 yards, which is ahead of the likes of Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins.
Dynasty Value
Jones still has time remaining on the deal he signed when he moved to Detroit. While the offense is becoming a more run-oriented team, it is simply becoming more balanced from its previous pass-heavy offense.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Jones is currently being drafted in the middle of the 8th round around receivers such as Doug Baldwin, Sterling Shepard, and Dante Pettis.
Possible Trades
Jones' value is going to be team-dependent, as his role in the offense means that he is likely to be hit or miss, but there is certainly trade value there to realize. If I was looking to trade him (either buying or selling) I'd be looking to sell for a late first round pick to get a younger WR with similar upside.
Target running backs would be players like Derrick Henry and Chris Carson. Players who are more established running backs, but who have injury concerns or can be taken out of the game depending on the flow of their team's performance.
If I was wanting to try and move up the board and could add something to trade, it would be players such as Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp or Allen Robinson.
Conclusion
Jones still has value on the Detroit Lions, and while there are targets for trade, I think it would really depend on the makeup of your roster.
If you have the ability to have a player who could win you a week, then I would keep hold of him but if I needed to get some more guaranteed production, moving him on is possible.
