RADIO
If you're a big fan of offense, I ask that you temper your expectations tonight. Big fan of grind-it-out wins? Well, have I got something special for you on this Friday evening - an eight game slate of Association basketball with plenty of low Vegas numbers and pace projections. This is not to say it's going to be a dull night. Oh, I assure you it will be just the opposite of that - the uncertainty can lead to madness and there are a bunch of low spreads. Just take it as a head's up that your final lineup construction that may land you on something that appears a little ugly, but could out just fine.
Speaking of those low Vegas numbers, let's see if we find a few diamonds in the rough, so to speak, and some numbers that could steer us away from bad plays. Right now, I'm still without spreads and totals for the Warriors-Pistons and Kings-Pelicans, but the Cavaliers (110) and Pacers (107) looks pretty appealing, especially relative to this slate. Another game of interest to me is the Bulls (97) and the Hornets (106.5). Now, that doesn't look good at first glance, but consider the aforementioned slate ugliness and the fact that these numbers are higher than they're regular season average for points per game and, most importantly, these teams are both bottom seven in the league in defensive efficiency. A plus night from a pair of shooters on each side could lead to big time value and alter a tournament. And finally, I'd stay away from the Celtics - Spurs game for the most part. Their projections are each under 97.5.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel on 12/8/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays on FanDuel.
DFS Guards to Consider
At point guard tonight, you're essentially tasked with deciding between the top tier of point guards, which run from about $7,300 to $8,700, someone in the broadly categorized middle (running $4,800 to $6,700), or reach down for a punt. When you break it down that way, you see the top tier guys pitted in some tough matchups, whereas a lot of the plays from the middle have plus matches and big upside. Many of those games from the middle tier have true 40+ upside tonight thanks to the game context, and that is where I'm going to focus most of my attention - especially in tournaments. With that said, I'll give my favorite play from each category so you have options no matter how you decide to construct your lineup. With so many many studs on the slate, you'll want that flexibility if you're a multi-entry GPP players.
Kyle Lowry - PG, at MEM ($8,700)
Out of the top tier, it's a close call, but Lowry has a good situation, a strong floor thanks to his play over the past month (and his past 10 - of which he's hit value in eight and crushed it in four) and a lot of offensive responsibility. The spread being just five points make this attractive as well, especially since Lowry is no stranger to seeing north of 36 minutes in tight games. He was already a pretty strong point per minute player at 1.07 for the season, but he's kicked that up to 1.19 over the past month. With a 24 Usage rate projection for Lowry tonight, I'm a pretty big fan in cash and if you're of the belief this game stays tight, throw him in tournament lineups as well.
Tournament Pivot: Kemba Walker - PG, vs CHI ($8,700)
Jamal Murray - PG, at ORL
Picking point guards against Orlando this season has been fairly popular and for good reason, as it's been lucrative as well. They've been giving more than seven points (7.42 to be exact) above salary based expectations to opposing point guards. Murray, who has shown a high minutes ceiling of late (and rarely, if ever, playing less than 24) has also flashed very high usage rates. He's delivered above value in three straight and I really like this game context for him. If the shots are falling at his projected 26 Usage rate, he'll put some cash in your pocket. I think he's a good play in cash and he's likely to be a bit chalky, but that is chalk I am willing to eat. If you don't want to eat said chalk, take a look below.
Tournament Pivot: De'Aaron Fox - PG, at NOP ($4,800)
And lastly, if you're in favor of punting the position or "super value" - whichever you'd like to call it - I think we have two pretty damn appealing options in Frank Mason and Emmanuel Mudiay. Sure, they don't have the same minutes as their teammates mentioned above, but the same great game context still applies and they've each shown 27+ point upside in the past month. I'd give the edge to Mudiay in tournaments.
Also Consider: Kris Dunn - PG, at CHA ($6,700)
Victor Oladipo - SG, vs CLE ($9,300)
Seeing Oladipo at this price seems a bit crazy, but you don't even have to dig through the box scores - his recent performances jump off the page. Oladipo has hit value (and then some) in seven of his last 10 and he's shown us 50+ upside three times in the last two weeks and that includes a 73 point monster performance. He is shouldering so much of the offensive responsibility (Usage rate numbers per game show percentages above 30 happens on a regular basis for Oladipo) and the Cavaliers have been so poor defending this season, that I'm okay with using him in cash but could see if you don't want to spend there. For tournaments, however, he should absolutely be on your roster. A game stack of this Pacers-Cavs showdown would be wise, too.
Justin Holiday - SG, at CHA ($5,500)
Holiday and his teammates find themselves in plus situations tonight. The Hornets aren't good defensively, and their frontcourt is thin right now thanks to injuries to topple on to their woes. Holiday has been pretty consistently hitting value and I think this type of game against a poor defensive unit should allow him to hit value and it also gives him more upside than usual. Holiday's minutes projection is strong at 35 and the Usage projection of 20% is attractive as well, particularly for this price range.
Also Consider: Buddy Hield - SG, at NOP ($4,800) - Tournament only
DFS Forwards to Consider
LeBron James - SF, at IND ($12,000)
The price is a bit steep, but in a game myself and Vegas see as a tight, fairly high scoring battle, I think he'll pay off his price and then some thanks to seeing a full allotment of minutes. It's no surprise really, but he's a point per minute monster at 1.48 and it doesn't take a mathematician to realize that an increase of just a few minutes with a Usage rate of 32 could really tip the fantasy point scale in LeBron-backers' favor. Despite this steep price, James has been able to beat his price implied value in three of his last five. I think it makes sense to have a few pieces from this game, and luckily there are value options in addition to the expensive pieces in James and Oladipo. Bojan Bogdanovic, Jeff Green and Lance Stephenson (who could see extended run to cover James) are great values under $5k.
Also consider: Lance Stephenson - SF, vs CLE ($4,400) - Punt/CLE-IND game-stack piece
Dirk Nowitzki - PF, at MIL ($5,000)
It's a Dirk night so long as he is "full go" come lock time, and everything looks as though he'll be healthy and ready to see 25 minutes on the floor. With a Usage rate hovering around 20 and nearly a point per minute fantasy production, he should easily hit value here. I like him even more so due to the fact that attacking the Milwaukee Bucks from the four spot is the best way to go, as they've allowed more than five points above salary based expectations to opposing power forwards this season. The fact that the Bucks are strong overall defensively could scare some people off and keep the ownership low, which makes me want to chase that upside in tournaments.
Also Consider: Jayson Tatum - PF, at SAS ($5,800)
DFS Centers to Consider
Nikola Vucevic - C, vs DEN ($8,400)
I like a lot of things about this game so it would be hard to pick a true favorite, but Vucevic is certainly in contention. In addition to the great game context, Vucevic gets a date with a Denver front court that is missing it's best piece in Nikola Jokic. Surprisingly, statistically speaking, Jokic had been the Nuggets' best defender, so it's a big loss on both sides for Denver but opens up the middle and big time opportunity for Vucevic. His scoring is a little volatile, but he has flashed 57+ point upside in two of his last four games. His minutes and Usage projections tonight are 32 and 24, respectively.
Also consider: Kevin Love - C, at IND ($8,000)
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