Carson Wentz - Dynasty Dud or Buy-Low?

Dom Petrillo looks at the dynasty football league value of Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz to determine if he is someone to sell or possibly buy-low after recent injuries and success of Nick Foles in his place.

Coming into last season, Carson Wentz was high on the list of dynasty quarterbacks. His amazing 2017 season solidified his position, even with his ACL injury which cut short what could have been an MVP campaign.

Turn to 2018 and we were still high on him and hoping he came back strong from his ACL. Our own staff dynasty rankings had him as the QB2 this season (although that's bound to change soon). His 5-6 record in his 11 starts was not what we wanted to see, though. Neither was a second consecutive season coming to an end due to an injury. This time it was a fractured vertebra, which means he now has back issues to deal with moving forward.

With the injuries piling up and the quality of his play in 2018 slipping, what is the true value of Wentz for your dynasty roster? Let’s crunch the numbers and find out if he is still a worthwhile risk, or a hard pass.

Dynasty Outlook

Coming into the 2018 season, Carson Wentz was a top-five dynasty quarterback in most, if not all rankings. This was well-deserved based on his play last season as well as his age. Has this ranking taken a hit this season? It very well could have, as he did not look the same as in past years.

His completion percentage has gone way up from his career average of 63 to over 69 this season, but this has a lot to do with his reliance on the tight end and slot position and less to do with his true accuracy which was not the same. Zach Ertz set the single-season record for receptions by a tight end, which shows Wentz knew the best receiver on the team and peppered him as the offensive line collapsed all around.

If you look at the rest of Wentz's numbers though, they really are not bad. Yes, he had some terrible games in which he failed to throw for even 200 yards and had more interceptions than touchdowns but throwing for 3,072 yards and a 3:1 TD:INT ratio with 21 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions is not bad.

Importantly, we do need to look at the ACL injury when looking at his performance. Yes, he was back as the starter by Week 3 but it takes a full 18 months to be fully returned from this type of injury and the second season back is the real test as to whether the player is fully "back." This means we need to wait for 2019 to see if we should be worried about the future for Wentz in Philadelphia.

Injuries happen. They happen in every game in the physical sport of football. Some like Adrian Peterson come back and have a miracle season after only eight months. For others, however, it takes longer to recover yet they still manage to do it and remain high-quality athletes. Andrew Luck comes to mind. If he takes the rest of this offseason to heal, so be it. If this is as healthy as he is going to get? He is still a lot better than a lot of other quarterbacks in the league who are starting for a team this week.

For every Baker Mayfield who may be ready to jump over him in the dynasty landscape, there is a Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota who after starting with a lot of promise have fallen by the wayside. The future looks bright for Wentz, both in Philadelphia where he will be the starter next season, as Foles and his $20 million guaranteed will be gone, and in dynasty where he is still a top-five quarterback going into the 2019 season.

While the names around him in the rankings have changed after the past season, his place in them has not. You can be very confident starting him or even acquiring him from a disgruntled owner on the cheap. Wentz should still be considered a top-10 dynasty QB, not someone to suddenly doubt after a couple of tough-luck injuries.

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