Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 1 Lineups

September 10, 2023

Brandon's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 1 season long lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

Welcome to the highly anticipated kickoff of the fantasy football season, where every draft pick and strategic move culminates in the excitement of Week 1. It's the moment we've all been waiting for, and now it's time to make those critical decisions about who to start and who to sit on your fantasy roster. In this weekly guide, we'll help you navigate the treacherous waters of the first week, analyzing matchups, injuries, and player performances to provide you with informed advice on which players you should consider starting and those you might want to keep on your bench.

Week 1 is always a rollercoaster of emotions for fantasy owners. On one hand, you're eager to unleash your carefully crafted roster and see how your draft choices will perform in real games. On the other hand, the uncertainty surrounding player roles and performance can leave you questioning every decision. Fear not, as we'll dive into the key matchups and storylines to give you a clear picture of who is primed for a big Week 1 and who might need a bit more time to warm up.

So, whether you're a seasoned fantasy veteran or a rookie manager, join us as we break down the pivotal boom and bust choices for Week 1 of the fantasy football season. Let's get your squad off to a flying start and set the tone for a successful and thrilling campaign ahead.

Week 1 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Derek Carr - QB, New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

After a very messy divorce as the long-time starting quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders, Carr finds himself in a new home in New Orleans with a bit of a chip on his shoulder.

The fresh start for Carr could breathe new life into a player that has flashed fantasy potential in the past given the adequate weapons and structure around him. He is an immediate upgrade for the Saints' offense over last year's starter, Andy Dalton, who, although didn't set the scoreboard on fire, wasn't terrible from a real-life NFL standpoint.

A new face in a new place can lend itself to frosty starts from a fantasy production standpoint, but Carr will see the benefit of a soft matchup to begin his tenure.

The Saints open the 2023 season at home against a Titans defense that was one of the worst in the league in 2022 giving up an average of 20.5 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.

Carr must utilize his full complement of healthy pass-catching options, as the running game could falter with Alvin Kamara beginning his three-game suspension. Taking advantage of this matchup could land Carr in fringe QB1 territory when Week 1 has completed.

Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

A player who was often overlooked during draft season, mostly due to his below-average efficiency numbers in 2022, Robinson will be looking to get off to a much better start in 2023.

Hampered by subpar quarterback play, he saw just shy of seven defenders in the box on each carry a season ago, landing him in the Top 10 in a bad category. Although the Commanders ranked fourth in run plays per game (31.6), Robinson struggled to an RB36 finish at 9.4 FPPG.

You couldn't ask for a better matchup to begin the 2023 season for Robinson, however, as he will be facing a Cardinals defense that ranked near dead last in the NFL in points allowed to the position a season ago (24.2 FPPG).

With the Commanders' offense expected to be improved and the Cardinals looking to be a dumpster fire in tank mode, this will be the best game script of the year for him to pile up points late in the game. Robinson is a player you likely drafted as an RB3/RB4, which will potentially bring you RB2-type upside in this matchup and should be in your lineups.

Zay Flowers - WR, Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans

Flowers entered the NFL with plenty of hype after his offseason testing produced eye-popping results. This brought him into the conversation as one of the best rookie receivers in the class and led to a first-round selection in the NFL Draft.

He is one of the shiftiest receivers off the snap, which allows him to create early separation in his routes. He is the type of player that new offensive coordinator Todd Monken will want to create packages for and get the ball into his hands.

Typically, you don't want to count on a rookie receiver to perform right out of the gate. On top of that, the matchup is not one that you would look at as great as the Texans' secondary was one of the best in the NFL in points allowed to opposing receivers in 2022 (22.3 FPPG).

But call this one a hunch as I believe that the Ravens will look to make a statement in their home opener after a very lackluster offensive showing a year ago. With the Ravens having one of the higher implied team totals in Week 1 (26.75), plenty of scoring opportunities are expected for the offense and that could put Flowers into Flex consideration.

Tyler Higbee - TE, Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Higbee was an anomaly in 2022 due to the poor Rams' offense after the loss of Matthew Stafford to injury. He was a top-five player at the position in routes run (434), targets (108), and receptions (72).

Now, of course, a lot of this could be viewed as an uptick in usage once the team was without Cooper Kupp. But volume is volume when it comes to fantasy production, and Higbee was a player who provided a safe floor last season.

Now as the 2023 season begins, we are right back in the same boat as the Rams will be without Kupp due to his hamstring injury. Playing on the road in Seattle is always a tough task and I expect to see the Rams play from behind in this game.

So from a game script point of view, Higbee could see plenty of targets against a defense that was the worst in the NFL against the position in 2022, allowing an average of 14.8 FPPG. Due to the lack of weapons, Higbee should be started with confidence by managers who waited on drafting their tight ends.

Week 1 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Dak Prescott - QB, Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

I have not been the biggest fan of Dak Prescott and his potential when it comes to fantasy production as we head into the 2023 season. Sure, the team brought in Brandin Cooks to help improve a receiver group that was lacking a true second option in 2022.

However, the loss of Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator and the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer could prove to be detrimental. Even with Mike McCarthy calling plays, the expectation is that the team will look for Dak to be more careful with the ball, which could result in a less-than-creative offense.

Add in the fact that Prescott took no reps in preseason action and you could see him come out very rusty in the opening game against a Giants defense that was solid against opposing quarterbacks in 2022 (16.4 FPPG allowed).

Adding insult, Prescott has historically struggled against this Giants team in terms of fantasy production as he has been under 16 FP in two out of his last three games. Prescott was largely drafted as one of the last QB1s in fantasy, but in Week 1 he is a player that should find the bench on your rosters.

James Conner - RB, Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders

The appeal to Conner in terms of fantasy potential is that he is one of the few expected high-volume running backs in fantasy. A three-down back who will rarely come off the field, as evidenced by his 70.5% snap share in 2022.

But with the Cardinals offense expected to be one of the worst in the NFL in 2023, there is not a lot of upside to be had here.

The rocky road will be off to a tough start in Week 1 as the team will be starting Joshua Dobbs at QB against a Commanders defense that was one of the best in the league a season ago in points allowed to the position (17.0 FPPG).

Conner is likely to see loaded boxes all day, limiting chances to hit the second level of defense and hitting bigger gains. Fantasy managers may be in a position where they must start a player of Conner's caliber, but expecting anything more than Flex-level production in this matchup could be wishful thinking.

Tee Higgins - WR, Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Higgins is a player that you see consistently drafted among the high-end WR2 in fantasy drafts based largely on the high-powered Bengals offense. But once you dig down deep into Higgins' profile you find a highly inefficient player.

He ranks outside the Top 25 across the board in nearly all the major analytical categories. Something you would not expect to see for such a highly-regarded player.

Heading into Week 1, Higgins is set up to fail fantasy managers right out of the gate in a very tough matchup. The Bengals will be on the road facing a Browns defense that is one of the league's best in points allowed to the position in 2022 (24.6 FPPG).

On top of that, Higgins could be specifically facing off with Greg Newsome, one of the top young cornerbacks in the NFL. Add all of this up and you have a player who is many fantasy managers' WR2 in lineups, but may only provide a ceiling of Flex-level production this week.

Greg Dulcich - TE, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Dulcich is a player that many fantasy managers tagged as a sleeper early on as we got into the 2023 offseason. The only trouble with that narrative is that new head coach Sean Payton may not agree with it.

The Broncos brought in Adam Trautman for depth at the position, as he is familiar with Payton's offense from their time together in New Orleans. Now Dulcich finds himself labeled as the TE2 on the depth chart heading into the season, to make matters worse.

With all the questions surrounding Dulcich and the potential rotation at the position, it will be hard for fantasy managers to count on him to begin the year. This should be viewed strictly as a wait-and-see scenario.

With plenty of options available to stream in Week 1, fantasy managers should park Dulcich firmly on the bench until further notice.

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