X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Boom and Bust: Week 18 Fantasy Football Studs and Duds, Including: J.K. Dobbins, Tyreek Hill, Aaron Jones, George Kittle, Evan Engram

J.K. Dobbins - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Ellis' fantasy football start 'em and sit'em for Week 18 lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.

I first and foremost want to wish Damar Hamlin the best, and I hope he has a full recovery. The young man (who is the same age as most of us), was devastatingly hurt doing what he loved and performing at the sport’s highest level. This is a game that we all love, and without players like Hamlin, who risk their own health, it would be impossible to play.

In Week 18 we have an absolute mess of games with huge implications and games where the teams do not have much to play for. I’m here this week to help navigate these matchups for anyone playing DFS or still having a championship to win.

I hope all of you who had your finals last week found success. I know with Monday night a lot of leagues had to determine their own course of action. As a commissioner of my own league, I know there was a lot of stress and pressure, so please be extra kind to your commissioners this week.  For what might be the last time this season, my name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Week 18 Boom and Bust article. If articles aren't your jam, check out my shorter version of this article on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FFL.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

Laying the Boom

Mike White (QB, NYJ) *Ruled Out for Week 18*

Jarrett Stidham (QB, LVR)

Since Mike White was ruled out for this week, I had to call an audible. What's better than moving from one backup QB to another? Drafted by the Patriots in 2019, Stidham is on his second NFL team and paired once again with Head Coach Josh Mcdaniel. 

Last week, Stidham managed to dissect a very stout 49ers defense. This week he can play spoiler for the Chiefs and limit their ability to secure the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs are allowing the third most fantasy points to the position and the most passing touchdowns per game. Stidham is playing for his NFL future, and if he can string two solid performances together, he'll set himself up nicely for the offseason.

Aaron Jones (RB, GBP)

I know, I keep picking Jones and he constantly lets me down for this Boom section. In fact, all of my Packers picks have been a little off… but that’s going to change! Jones is primed for a massive game, despite A.J. Dillon gaining momentum. 

The Lions are really solid against the RB for fantasy. They are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points, second-fewest receptions, and fewest receiving yards over the last five weeks to the position. Although the matchup is not great, Jones is the most reliable pass catcher on this team, and Aaron Rodgers loves to target those he trusts in big situations. Assuming this year’s Walter Payton Man of the Year Nominee is fully healthy, I expect him to have a nice week and find the endzone.

Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)

This is a tough team to talk about, and I really hope all the players are managing alright given the circumstances. With Hamlin at the forefront of their thoughts, they get to face their nemesis the Patriots who are battling for the final playoff spot. In fact, the Patriots control their own destiny and if they win, they’re in.

As for Buffalo, their situation is murky with the outcome of last week’s game still up for grabs. However, I think this team is going to come out with heavy hearts and lots of motivation. Plus, this Patriots team has been great at stopping the run, but miserable at defending the pass. In fact, over the last five weeks, they have allowed the third most fantasy points to the position. I expect Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to put a quick and painless end to the Patriots' playoff dreams.

Evan Engram (TE, JAX)

Let’s go Evan Engram. From being the butt of many fantasy jokes to absolutely balling out on his new team, he’s taken fantasy managers through it all. Lately, he’s taken fantasy managers to a great playoff run, except for last week. However, the four weeks before he had seven-plus targets in each game, 367 yards, and three touchdowns.

This week he faces a Titans team who is allowed the most fantasy points to the TE over the last five weeks. Plus, this is a must-win game for each team. Trevor Lawrence is going to rely heavily on his safety blanket, and I expect Engram will take full advantage of this porous defense. He’s a must-play in DFS for me this week.

 

Busted

Brock Purdy (QB, SF)

I really hope he proves me wrong here, but the writing is on the wall. I’m not talking about the 49ers playoff writing, I’m specifically talking about this one game. I still think the 49ers are the best team in the NFC right now, and if you have an issue with that, here’s my Twitter @YoitsEllis_FF. 

This week, if the 49ers win and the Eagles lose, they are the top seed in the NFC. Although the Eagles losing to a Giants team that doesn’t have a lot to play for might sound like a long shot, no team wants to enter the postseason on a losing streak. I do think the 49ers win this game but the Cardinals have not been good to the QB position, averaging the fourth-fewest fantasy points and sixth-fewest touchdowns to the position.

Then again, this is a Houston Texans situation, where the Cardinals can’t stop the run for the life of them. As a result, fire up Christian McCaffrey as usual, but if Purdy doesn’t get a dump-off TD to him, you might be in trouble.

J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)

What a resurgence Dobbins has had. From suffering a brutal injury in 2021 to coming back clearly prematurely, to ripping it up, it’s been a total rollercoaster. I’ll be honest, when he struggled to start this season, I was writing him off. Instead, I’m glad to say this young man has come back as electric as ever.

Over his last four weeks, he is averaging 14 rushing attempts and nearly 100 rushing yards a game. His biggest downfall is that he doesn’t pass catch, but his rushing is exceptional. Unfortunately, he faces a Bengals with run-stuffing extraordinaire D.J. Reader. Seriously, Reader is an animal. I love this guy. Not just because I traded David Johnson for him in an IDP league two years ago and proceeded to get kicked out as a result, but because he is a beast. In the nine games with Reader, the Bengals averaged 69 rushing yards to RBs, in the six weeks without him this season, they average 97 rushing yards.

Of course, defense is a collective effort and that’s where the Bengals shine. The Bengals allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points and third-fewest rushing yards over the last five weeks. This screams to be a down week for Dobbins, and I have him outside my top 24 in any PPR format.

Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)

I’m going to keep calling Iso’s on this Jets' defense until their opposing WRs fantasy rankings reflect their performance. Last week, I had my most successful Bust call of the season (if I do say so myself), calling D.K. Metcalf a bust when he had one catch on five targets for three yards.

That’s just one week. What if I told you this defense has held Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and D.K. Metcalf to 85 receiving yards, one touchdown, and 11 receptions collectively? That’s wild. Now they face another star wideout and I’m staying in the flames. Hill is outside of my top 30 this week at the position (once again my Twitter is @YoitsEllis_FF if you want to come at me).

George Kittle (TE, SF)

All year I’ve preached to play your TEs against the Cardinals. In fact, against the Cardinals, Kittle was my Boom TE and he went for 84 yards and two scores. So why is he a Bust when he is facing the Cardinals this week?

Well, over the last five weeks, the Cardinals have found their groove on defense. Despite Budda Baker missing some games, they have been solid against the pass (but brutal against opposing run games). In fact, they have finally found how to guard the TE, allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points to the position over the last five weeks. Now, Kittle could easily explode and make me look like a fool, but I’m trusting my gut and saying he’ll have fewer than 10 half-PPR points this week.

Thank you all for tuning in again this week. I hope to have this article and the Thursday Night Preview again next year. I'll see you all then and enjoy the NFL playoffs!

 

Last Week's Booms and Busts Summary

Boom

Bust

  • Geno Smith (QB, SEA): 201 yds, two TDs, 16 fpts
  • D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA): one reception, three yards, 0.8 fpts
  • Leonard Fournette (RB, TB): 46 yds, four receptions, 6.6 fpts



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF