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Ellis' fantasy football start 'em and sit'em for Week 18 lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.
I first and foremost want to wish Damar Hamlin the best, and I hope he has a full recovery. The young man (who is the same age as most of us), was devastatingly hurt doing what he loved and performing at the sport’s highest level. This is a game that we all love, and without players like Hamlin, who risk their own health, it would be impossible to play.
In Week 18 we have an absolute mess of games with huge implications and games where the teams do not have much to play for. I’m here this week to help navigate these matchups for anyone playing DFS or still having a championship to win.
I hope all of you who had your finals last week found success. I know with Monday night a lot of leagues had to determine their own course of action. As a commissioner of my own league, I know there was a lot of stress and pressure, so please be extra kind to your commissioners this week. For what might be the last time this season, my name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Week 18 Boom and Bust article. If articles aren't your jam, check out my shorter version of this article on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FFL.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Laying the Boom
Mike White (QB, NYJ) *Ruled Out for Week 18*
Jarrett Stidham (QB, LVR)
Since Mike White was ruled out for this week, I had to call an audible. What's better than moving from one backup QB to another? Drafted by the Patriots in 2019, Stidham is on his second NFL team and paired once again with Head Coach Josh Mcdaniel.
Last week, Stidham managed to dissect a very stout 49ers defense. This week he can play spoiler for the Chiefs and limit their ability to secure the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs are allowing the third most fantasy points to the position and the most passing touchdowns per game. Stidham is playing for his NFL future, and if he can string two solid performances together, he'll set himself up nicely for the offseason.
Aaron Jones (RB, GBP)
I know, I keep picking Jones and he constantly lets me down for this Boom section. In fact, all of my Packers picks have been a little off… but that’s going to change! Jones is primed for a massive game, despite A.J. Dillon gaining momentum.
The Lions are really solid against the RB for fantasy. They are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points, second-fewest receptions, and fewest receiving yards over the last five weeks to the position. Although the matchup is not great, Jones is the most reliable pass catcher on this team, and Aaron Rodgers loves to target those he trusts in big situations. Assuming this year’s Walter Payton Man of the Year Nominee is fully healthy, I expect him to have a nice week and find the endzone.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
This is a tough team to talk about, and I really hope all the players are managing alright given the circumstances. With Hamlin at the forefront of their thoughts, they get to face their nemesis the Patriots who are battling for the final playoff spot. In fact, the Patriots control their own destiny and if they win, they’re in.
As for Buffalo, their situation is murky with the outcome of last week’s game still up for grabs. However, I think this team is going to come out with heavy hearts and lots of motivation. Plus, this Patriots team has been great at stopping the run, but miserable at defending the pass. In fact, over the last five weeks, they have allowed the third most fantasy points to the position. I expect Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs to put a quick and painless end to the Patriots' playoff dreams.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Let’s go Evan Engram. From being the butt of many fantasy jokes to absolutely balling out on his new team, he’s taken fantasy managers through it all. Lately, he’s taken fantasy managers to a great playoff run, except for last week. However, the four weeks before he had seven-plus targets in each game, 367 yards, and three touchdowns.
This week he faces a Titans team who is allowed the most fantasy points to the TE over the last five weeks. Plus, this is a must-win game for each team. Trevor Lawrence is going to rely heavily on his safety blanket, and I expect Engram will take full advantage of this porous defense. He’s a must-play in DFS for me this week.
Busted
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
I really hope he proves me wrong here, but the writing is on the wall. I’m not talking about the 49ers playoff writing, I’m specifically talking about this one game. I still think the 49ers are the best team in the NFC right now, and if you have an issue with that, here’s my Twitter @YoitsEllis_FF.
This week, if the 49ers win and the Eagles lose, they are the top seed in the NFC. Although the Eagles losing to a Giants team that doesn’t have a lot to play for might sound like a long shot, no team wants to enter the postseason on a losing streak. I do think the 49ers win this game but the Cardinals have not been good to the QB position, averaging the fourth-fewest fantasy points and sixth-fewest touchdowns to the position.
Then again, this is a Houston Texans situation, where the Cardinals can’t stop the run for the life of them. As a result, fire up Christian McCaffrey as usual, but if Purdy doesn’t get a dump-off TD to him, you might be in trouble.
J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)
What a resurgence Dobbins has had. From suffering a brutal injury in 2021 to coming back clearly prematurely, to ripping it up, it’s been a total rollercoaster. I’ll be honest, when he struggled to start this season, I was writing him off. Instead, I’m glad to say this young man has come back as electric as ever.
Over his last four weeks, he is averaging 14 rushing attempts and nearly 100 rushing yards a game. His biggest downfall is that he doesn’t pass catch, but his rushing is exceptional. Unfortunately, he faces a Bengals with run-stuffing extraordinaire D.J. Reader. Seriously, Reader is an animal. I love this guy. Not just because I traded David Johnson for him in an IDP league two years ago and proceeded to get kicked out as a result, but because he is a beast. In the nine games with Reader, the Bengals averaged 69 rushing yards to RBs, in the six weeks without him this season, they average 97 rushing yards.
Of course, defense is a collective effort and that’s where the Bengals shine. The Bengals allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points and third-fewest rushing yards over the last five weeks. This screams to be a down week for Dobbins, and I have him outside my top 24 in any PPR format.
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
I’m going to keep calling Iso’s on this Jets' defense until their opposing WRs fantasy rankings reflect their performance. Last week, I had my most successful Bust call of the season (if I do say so myself), calling D.K. Metcalf a bust when he had one catch on five targets for three yards.
That’s just one week. What if I told you this defense has held Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, and D.K. Metcalf to 85 receiving yards, one touchdown, and 11 receptions collectively? That’s wild. Now they face another star wideout and I’m staying in the flames. Hill is outside of my top 30 this week at the position (once again my Twitter is @YoitsEllis_FF if you want to come at me).
George Kittle (TE, SF)
All year I’ve preached to play your TEs against the Cardinals. In fact, against the Cardinals, Kittle was my Boom TE and he went for 84 yards and two scores. So why is he a Bust when he is facing the Cardinals this week?
Well, over the last five weeks, the Cardinals have found their groove on defense. Despite Budda Baker missing some games, they have been solid against the pass (but brutal against opposing run games). In fact, they have finally found how to guard the TE, allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points to the position over the last five weeks. Now, Kittle could easily explode and make me look like a fool, but I’m trusting my gut and saying he’ll have fewer than 10 half-PPR points this week.
Thank you all for tuning in again this week. I hope to have this article and the Thursday Night Preview again next year. I'll see you all then and enjoy the NFL playoffs!
Last Week's Booms and Busts Summary
Boom
- Jared Goff (QB, DET): 255yds, three TDs, 22 fpts
- Christian Watson (WR, GBP): one reception, 11 yds, 1.6 fpts
- James Conner (RB, ARI): 110 yds, three receptions, 12.5 fpts
Bust
- Geno Smith (QB, SEA): 201 yds, two TDs, 16 fpts
- D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA): one reception, three yards, 0.8 fpts
- Leonard Fournette (RB, TB): 46 yds, four receptions, 6.6 fpts
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