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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC Fight Night, Derek Brunson v. Kevin Holland. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
Welcome back, RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.
Two of the top middleweights in the UFC are ready to square off at UFC on ESPN 21. Will Kevin Holland be able to continue his amazing streak against veteran Derek Brunson, or will the latter find himself one step closer to a title shot?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who will be able to walk out of the octagon with bragging rights.
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UFC on ESPN 21: Fighter Backgrounds
A three-time Division II All American wrestler, Brunson made his MMA debut in 2010. The Sanford MMA star started with the Carolina Summer Fight Series before moving to Strikeforce. He was 3-1 with the promotion before making his way to the UFC.
The 37-year-old beat Lorenz Larkin in his UFC debut at UFC 177, starting a five-fight win streak. He would end up losing to Robert Whittaker in 2016, ending that streak. Brunson would then lose to Anderson Silva in a controversial affair, as he had the advantage until the judges called the end result. He would rebound by winning two in a row but lost two after, this time to Ronaldo Souza and Israel Adesanya. Brunson has since won three in a row, his last fight a TKO win against Edmen Shahbazyan in August.
Ranked seventh in the UFC's middleweight rankings, Brunson is looking to reach the top of the division.
What a run it has been for "Big Mouth" Holland. Competing for Xtreme Knockout, Legacy Fighting Championship, LFA, and Bellator, Holland made an immediate impact during Dana White's Contender Series in 2018. He wasn’t picked for a contract but was brought in to face and lost to Thiago Santos.
Holland would win three in a row before losing to Brendan Allen via submission to end 2019. During the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic, Holland was the MVP of 2020. He won five fights in a row from May to December. His last win was against Souza via a wild KO at UFC 256. That tied him for the most wins in a calendar year in the UFC.
A talker in and out of the octagon, Holland, ranked tenth, is looking to continue to turn heads.
UFC on ESPN 21: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook at this time has Brunson as the +150 underdog and Holland as the -182 favorite. We know Holland can talk the talk, but will his actions truly speak louder against Brunson?
When it comes to Significant Strikes Landed per Minute, Holland has an edge with about 4.74 compared to Brunson's 3.77. Holland also leads with a 57% Significant Striking Accuracy ratio, compared to Brunson's 47%. Let’s not forget about Holland’s +1.65 striking differential, ranked fourth in the middleweight division.
During his five-fight win streak, Holland has landed 317 total strikes, 193 of them significant. Brunson has landed 274 strikes during his three-fight win streak, 225 of them significant. The latter has absorbed about 2.95 strikes compared to Holland's 2.77. They are both about even (54% for Brunson, 56% for Holland) when it comes to Significant Strike Defense.
On the ground, Brunson is the true master. He averages 3.02 takedowns (1.19 for Holland) and has a ridiculous Takedown Defense of 100% (Holland at 52%). Something Holland has an advantage, in, however, is Takedown Accuracy at 42% compared to 31%.
The fight can go many ways depending on where the action is. Brunson can bully Holland and wrestle him until the latter exposes himself. He is patient, at least recently, and can strike at any point. With twelve wins via knockout, Brunson can hit you from any angle.
The same could be said for Holland, who has made it a habit to hit moves out of nowhere. Unpredictable, Holland’s distance mindset could make Brunson run after him. That mindset can also result in a methodical approach to break his opponents, while his defense can be a real factor in slowing Brunson down. Holland’s long kicks and punches compliment his clinch offense. If he gets to the ground, he’ll look to end the fight as creative as possible.
Holland considers Brunson the middleweight gatekeeper. A win could propel him to the next level of his career. Always confident, Holland is still not taking his opponent lightly. We may be seeing a different version of Brunson, but can that last against Holland’s enthusiastic style?
Prediction: Brunson via TKO (round two)
