2022 NFL Draft Prop Bets - Best Betting Picks and Top Expert Predictions

A strong case can be made that we have witnessed the most entertaining NFL offseason ever. Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Khalil Mack were all traded, Tom Brady managed to retire and unretire, eight new head coaches were hired, the quarterback movement has been immense, and the AFC has become an absolute powerhouse. Besides that, it's been your typical offseason!

However, since the Tyreek Hill trade on March 23rd, the movement has cooled down. We could see Deebo Samuel traded from the 49ers at any minute, but regardless, what we have truly been waiting for – the 2022 NFL Draft.

This is much a different draft than in previous years. Without a top-tier quarterback or any blue-chip players in general, it is very difficult to forecast who will be picked and at what spot. Heck, even the #1 overall pick is in doubt! This is the chaos that perfectly encapsulates what the NFL Draft should look like: it's much more exciting when it is as unpredictable as possible.

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Betting On The NFL Draft

This unpredictability has made this a very unique year in the betting landscape. Over the past few years, gambling on NFL Draft Props has become consistently more popular, and really has taken over a great deal of the interest surrounding the draft. It is easy to see why. If you play your cards right, you could end up profiting tremendously, and it certainly adds an extra amount of entertainment factor to the draft.

In a year like no other, can we flex our forecasting muscles? That's what we will be trying to do today. After analyzing various mock drafts, analyzing team prospect visits, and looking through other draft rumors, I have identified the draft props that would appear to be the most mispriced currently.

Now, not all of these will hit. However, we aren't simply picking the prop best that are bound to happen. Rather, we are looking for the ones that offer the most value at their current price. I could pick the Jaguars to pick a defensive lineman at (-1000) and claim that I went 1-0, but that would be doing a great disservice to all parties. Instead, a majority of these bets have plus odds, yet I believe have at least a decent chance of ultimately happening.

So, what are the best NFL Draft prop bets to make prior to Thursday? Let us dive right into it!

Odds via Draft Kings
Stats via Pro Football Focus

 

Quarterback Betting Picks - NFL Draft

Under 2.5 Quarterbacks Selected In First Round

• Odds (+190)

Every year, the draft is centered around the quarterback position, and for good reason. At the end of the day, your team will only go so far as the quarterback will take you, and there is nothing more advantageous than a productive quarterback on a rookie contract; the salary cap space provided to build around him opens up a Super Bowl window.

Last year, we saw five quarterbacks go off the board in the first-15 picks in the draft, and the expectation is that we will continue to see multiple teams draft a new signal-caller in the first round this year. Yet, I wouldn't be so sure about that.

Right now, in most mock drafts, the common notion is that there won't be a quarterback drafted in the top 10 this year. After all, every quarterback is plus-money to be drafted in the top 10, and there aren't many teams that seem to be interested in quarterbacks at all:

• The Lions at #2 overall have not been connected to a quarterback at all. It's possible they take one at #32, but they also appear to be content waiting for next year's quarterback class.
• The Panthers (#6) are the only team with enough cap space to take on either Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo, and most beat writers are convinced they are taking an offensive tackle.
• There have been no connections to the Falcons (#8) and a quarterback
• Several draft analysts are convinced the Seahawks (#9) will not be taking a quarterback.

That leaves the Saints (#16, #19), Steelers (#20), and the Titans (#26) as really the only teams connected to a quarterback. Even then, the Saints have also been rumored to be in win-now mode and in search of an offensive tackle and receiver, while the Titans are still considerable long shots (+600) to select a quarterback. That leaves Pittsburgh as the only obvious quarterback candidate, which is not getting the job done.

Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett are the only two quarterbacks being consistently mocked in the first round. With the fifth-year option being much more expensive now, the incentive to trade back into the first round for a quarterback is less so, and it's likely we see teams wait until the second round to take a flyer on a quarterback. Matthew Freedman of Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros put it very well here:

Recent-ish history shows that if no QB goes in top 5, the NFL is down on that class.

No top-5 QBs --> total Rd. 1 QBs:
- 2013: 1
- 2000: 1
- 1997: 1
- 1996: 0
- 1992: 2
- 1991: 2
- 1988: 0
- 1985: 0
- 1984: 0
- 1981: 1
- 1980: 2

We probably won't see 3-4 Rd. 1 QBs this year.

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 24, 2022

I'm stunned that the under for this bet is at (+190), and I strongly recommend taking advantage of that.

 

Wide Receiver Betting Picks - NFL Draft

Jameson Williams Under 11.5 Draft Position

• Odds: (-120)

If there is one thing we know about NFL teams, it's that they LOVE speed. There's a reason Henry Ruggs III was drafted ahead of the likes of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Jerry Jeudy in 2020, while Jaylen Waddle was drafted sixth overall in 2021. Heck, this goes back to John Ross being a top-10 pick. Especially as head coaches become younger, there is more of an inclination to have an open passing game that can stretch the field vertically.

That is where Jameson Williams comes into play. While he didn't get to run the 40-yard dash as he recovers from a torn ACL, it's almost a given he would have been the fastest runner of any of the possible first-round receivers. After flourishing with 20 yards/reception and 3.12 yards/route run in his junior year at Alabama, he also has the SEC production that teams cater to.

In not shocking fashion, Williams appears to be seen as a top-10 pick:

"I have from a very good source that Jameson Williams & Garrett Wilson are potentially top ten picks" ~@PSchrags#PMSLive pic.twitter.com/uriD44VoNe

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) April 13, 2022

This is not the only report indicating this is the case. With Williams supposedly ahead of his rehab (who isn't nowadays?), teams get to focus on that trait they always covet: speed, speed, and more speed. With the Falcons, Jets, and Commanders all likely to take a wide receiver (the betting markets and mock drafts have them pegged to do so), you're really looking for Williams to just be the second wide receiver off the board. Right now, I would be willing to say that is very likely to be the case. Williams at (+120) to be drafted in the top-10 is also an advantageous bet.

 

Defensive Line Betting Picks - NFL Draft

Kayvon Thibodeaux Over 4.5 Draft Position

• Odds: (+200)

Draft fatigue is a real thing, folks. What if I told you that you could draft a former five-star recruit with tremendous athleticism and a 91.5 PFF pass rush grade in his junior season? Would that sound appealing?

Generally, that blind resume would be of a player that NFL teams are coveting. Unfortunately, that doesn't appear the case. I present you with several new reports from draft week:

Not feeling him at 4. I believe he’s going to slide.

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) April 25, 2022

This is in response to Jermaine Johnson > Kayvon Thibodeaux at 4th overall. I like Johnson +650 at 4th now. https://t.co/t0QnISaj5h

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) April 25, 2022

Thibodeaux has long been connected to the Lions (#2) and the Jets (#4). As the draft process goes on, it appears that Jets' interest in him may have been overstated. Plus, with the Jaguars now likely to draft Trayvon Walker over Aidan Hutchison with the #1 overall pick, it's less likely Thibodeaux will be the pick. Right now, I see this as the more likely case, yet it's still (+200). That seems like a misprice.

 

Wide Receiver Betting Picks - NFL Draft

Chris Olave Under 16.5 Draft Position

• Odds: (-145)

All indications are that we are going to see a massive wide receiver run in this draft, which is in direct conjunction with the booming market for veteran wide receivers. After all, the draft prop for total wide receivers drafted isn't 6.5 by accident!

The consensus top-three receivers in this draft appear to be Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, and Drake London. However, I'd consider Chris Olave to be viewed by NFL teams similar. Not only did he run a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine (teams love that speed), but he's a very accomplished player coming from Ohio State that profiles as a vertical threat. As teams continue to open up their passing game, it is easy to see where he fits in, and there is a decent chance that some teams have him ranked higher on their board. Even if they don't, though, there are plenty of teams that need wide receivers before he's drafted:

• Falcons (#8)
• Jets (#10)
• Commanders (#11): Head coach Ron Rivera attended Ohio State's pro day to watch him and Olave, which is something the veteran head coach rarely does.
• Eagles (#15)
• Saints (#16)

That's not even counting the Vikings (#12), who could be in the market for a wide receiver as they shift to a 11-personnel heavy offense, and the Texans (#13), who haven't addressed the wide receiver position at all this offseason. If a wide receiver is the highest probability pick for each of the five teams listed, I find it hard to believe that there are at least four wide receivers drafted through pick #16. With that in mind, it's hard to see Olave not finding his way into that mix, and that's without considering that he could be ranked higher than that on a team's board; there is a proverbial tier drop after the top-four in the minds of most evaluators. The price is steep, but the likelihood is very high.

 

Offensive Line Betting Picks

Zion Johnson Under 24.5 Draft Position
Kenyon Green Under 27.5 Draft Position
Tyler Linderbaum Over 27.5 Draft Position

• Johnson Odds: (-125)
• Green Odds: (-115)
• Linderbaum Odds: (-105)

Heading into the college season, the expectation was that Tyler Linderbaum could be a top-ten pick; he was seen as a generational interior offensive line prospect. As the time has gone on, though, that prospect star has faded.

Perhaps it's due to teams avoiding centers in favor of standard prototypical guards, but Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green have now passed Linderbaum on most draft boards. According to Mock Draft Database, but Johnson and Green are projected to go higher than their current draft prop. Johnson has been linked to the Chargers (#17), Patriots (#21), Packers (#22), and Cowboys (#24), while a team like the Vikings could be an option if they trade back; all of those teams are options for Green, while the Titans (#26) also could be a fit.

Really, this is me taking a gamble on which interior offensive linemen come off the board first. There are plenty of teams with needs at that position, but it likely won't be addressed with Linderbaum:

Todd McShay wrote today that Nakobe Dean, George Karlaftis and Tyler Linderbaum may fall out of the first, with Dean the most likely to be picked in the first round.

— Jake Liscow (@JakeLiscow) April 25, 2022

Take that as you will. Linderbaum's over is my favorite bet of the three, but all of them are quite logical.

 

Carolina Panthers To Select an Offensive Lineman

• Odds: (+100)

As the draft process has gone on, I have become increasingly confident that the Panthers will not draft a quarterback with the #6 overall pick.

“𝙸 𝚠𝚒𝚕𝚕 𝚋𝚎 𝚜𝚑𝚘𝚌𝚔𝚎𝚍 𝚒𝚏 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝙿𝚊𝚗𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚛𝚜 𝚝𝚊𝚔𝚎 𝙺𝚎𝚗𝚗𝚢 𝙿𝚒𝚌𝚔𝚎𝚝𝚝 𝚊𝚝 𝟼.“

-@jonmalexander

Full epidose: https://t.co/YKGSiiYoiO pic.twitter.com/IQ58grSwGb

— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) April 14, 2022

Josh Norris of Underdog Fantasy is as plugged into the Panthers as anyone, and he has been steadfast in his belief that the team will not draft a quarterback, and will instead go the veteran route. After all, why have all the available cap space to take on the likes of Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo?

Really, this is just a fade of the notion that they would take a quarterback. After all, general manager Scott Fitterer made his team needs pretty clear while being interviewed at the NFL Combine, per Sports Illustrated:

"It's going to be best available. We went into this offseason with an emphasis on the offensive line We see a lot of different options through free agency and through the draft in how we can address offensive line, as well as quarterback. The biggest thing we want to do is have options at pick six. Do we move back? Or do we stay there and pick a franchise player at six? Is it the quarterback? Is it the offensive lineman? That will all come to focus. We feel like there will be a really good player there."

Whether it's Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, or Charles Cross, there will almost certainly be an offensive lineman available for the Panthers with the #6 overall pick. Perhaps this is in more jeopardy if they decided to trade back, but it is clear the offensive line is a major priority for them, and for good reason. Right now, those three players are the three favorites to be selected with the #6 overall pick, so you're getting the extremely most likely outcome without laying any money. That sounds good to me!

 

NFL Draft Bets I Don't LOVE, But Still Like

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+250) TO TAKE AN OL FIRST

After losing Terron Armstead, the Saints are in desperate need of an offensive tackle. They have been linked to that position, and have targeted it consistently in previous drafts. I wouldn't count out a trade-up for one of the top tackles either, but they won't be afraid to reach for a player they believe in either; Trevor Penning and Tyler Smith are options considering their past interest in smaller-school performers.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+380) TO TAKE AN OL FIRST

The offensive line run continues! After trading interior offensive lineman Shaq Mason away, the Patriots have a gaping hole on the interior of the offensive line. They have linked to Zion Johnson specifically, and have also met with Kenyon Green, Trevor Penning, and others. A defensive back could definitely be in play, but (+380) is a tremendous price.

ISIAH SPILLER (+500) SECOND RB DRAFTED

Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III are the clear top-two running backs on most draft boards, but the NFL seems to really like Isiah Spiller as someone who can play on all three downs, was a three-year contributor in the SEC, and is the youngest running back in this class. Considering a running back with a 4.60 40-yard dash has gone in the first round of the past three drafts, his poor combine performance likely won't be a major issue for teams. The Bills, specifically, have shown a considerable amount of interest in him. If you want to sprinkle (+1500) for him to be the first running back drafted, that is an alright long-shot bet.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+450) TO DRAFT DL FIRST, (+900) OL FIRST

TENNESSEE TITANS (+600) TO DRAFT QB FIRST

These are two longer-shot bets, but ones that could happen. The consensus belief is strong that the Packers will select a wide receiver, but with two first-round picks, what if they wait until their second one to draft one. If so, based on their team needs and draft visits, a player in the trenches is very likely.

One of the more interesting draft rumors this offseason has been that the Titans may draft a quarterback. They have been linked to Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, and Malik Willis, especially the latter. Since Ryan Tannehill's contract can be easily cut after this season, this is something to keep an eye on.

AHMAD GARDNER (+400) #3 OVERALL

I mentioned it on today's podcast: I've heard from several teams that believe Sauce could be the pick at No. 3 to Houston.

Texans have also done plenty of work on Stingley. https://t.co/cW6VmpKjLn

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) April 20, 2022

Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner has gained steam throughout the entire draft process, and the connection to the Texans has become a popular one recently. It certainly fits with general manager Nick Caserio's time in New England, where the secondary was prioritized significantly and aligns with head coach Lovie Smith calling out the cornerback position as a top need in a recent mock draft. I'd actually be surprised if this wasn't the pick.

IKEM EKWONU (-125) DRAFTED BEFORE KAYVON THIBODEAUX

If it's true that Thibodeaux is going to fall, it's hard to see this not hitting. The Texans, Jets, Giants, and Panthers have all been connected to Ekwonu from picks to #3-#6, whereas Thibodeaux isn't expected to be of consideration by any of those teams. Ekwonu is the consensus favorite to be the first drafted offensive lineman, and I'm shocked the price isn't significantly higher here.

CHRIS OLAVE (-125) DRAFTED BEFORE TRENT MCDUFFIE

As mentioned previously, there is expected to be a wide receiver run early, it'd be quite surprising if Olave was still available past pick #16. On the other hand, McDuffie could see himself falling down the board, as some NFL teams will hold McDuffie's sub-30 inch arm length against him. This seems to be an overwhelming consensus based on most mock drafts.

JAMESON WILLIAMS (+110) DRAFTED BEFORE GARRETT WILSON

The stock around Williams has reached enormous amounts right now, and he's likely to be a top-ten pick. Wilson is still the betting favorite to be the #1 receiver off the board, but there is more helium around Drake London to Atlanta and Williams to New York than there is about Wilson going to either of those two teams.

 

Parlays Betting Picks

TRAYVON WALKER #1 OVERALL, MALIK WILLIS FIRST QB (+160)

This aligns quite well with consensus opinion currently. At this point, I'd be shocked if the movement in the betting markets towards Walker being the #1 pick isn't legitimate, while there are far more teams connected to Willis than the other quarterbacks.

ALL IN FIRST ROUND: TREVOR PENNING, TRENT MCDUFFIE, ZION JOHNSON, DAX HILL (+180)

All of these players are ranked among the top-30 players, per NFL Draft Mock Database. Hill would be the only one to be worried about, but he's been linked heavily to the likes of the Chiefs, Packers, and Lions at the end of the first round; these are players you should expect to be drafted in the first round.

AHMAD GARDNER FIRST THREE PICKS, DEREK STINGLEY TOP TEN (+350)

Considering that Stingley is (-3000) to be drafted in the top 10, this is mainly betting on Gardner. I'd rather just take him at (+400) to the Texans straight up, though.

GIANTS SELECT EVAN NEAL AND DEREK STINGLEY (+600)

The prevailing notion is that the Giants will draft an offensive tackle and cornerback with their first-two picks; general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll mentioned the offensive line consistently as a team need while the team is likely to cut ties with cornerback James Bradberry. Assuming Gardner is off the board, these are the two favorites to be drafted with the #5 and #7 overall picks, respectively, and what I would currently project if I was competing in a mock draft accuracy challenge.

MALIK WILLIS FIRST QB, AHMAD GARDNER FIRST CB, AND JAMESON WILLIAMS FIRST WR (+800)

If a receiver hasn't been taken by the 10th overall pick, I'd be very confident the Jets will make Jameson Williams the first wide receiver off the board, based on how much they have been connected to him. Teams love speed, and if he's likely to go in the top ten, then he can easily be the first wide receiver off the board. The other two are heavy favorites, so this would appear to be mainly a gamble on Williams.

Remember to please gamble responsibly. I hope you enjoy the NFL Draft! It truly is one of the most exciting sporting events and never fails to disappoint!

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