👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

2016 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Duke Johnson vs. Matt Jones

We're well into fantasy football draft prep season, and RotoBaller is here to help. In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the preseason and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

This player comparison column comes from RotoBaller lead columnists Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) and Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21). Bill will defend the most exciting player on an unexciting team in Duke Johnson, while Ben extols the virtues of another young back with home run capability and a clear path to playing time in Matt Jones. Feel free to reach out to either or both with questions or opinions.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!

 

Duke Johnson, Jr. (RB, CLE) - Bill Dubiel

After a pedestrian rookie season, Duke Johnson is primed for a breakout 2016 season. Boy, if that's not the most generic fantasy football analysis statement ever written, I don't know what is. However, just because it's cliché doesn't mean it's not true in this case.

Johnson was hyped a ton last year, and rightfully so. He finished his college career as the all-time leading rusher at Miami after being rated the number one running back in the nation coming out of high school. His trademarks were explosiveness and agility, a distinctive patience and burst that allowed him to hit holes and gain extra yards that didn't even appear to be there. On the downside he was not as effective as an interior runner, and there were plenty of concerns over his pass-blocking ability, not unlike Matt Jones.

It's clear watching Johnson at any level that he'll never be a ground-and-pound back--it's just not who he is. At 5'9" and roughly 210 lbs, he doesn't have the body to get in there and bang between the tackles. That absolutely doesn't matter from a fantasy standpoint, because Johnson's abilities as a pass-catcher will keep him fantasy-relevant for as long as he's on the field. Believe it or not (and I had to double-check this to make sure it was even accurate), Johnson was second among all NFL rookies in receptions with a whopping 61, behind only Amari Cooper.

The Browns organization is looking for a fresh start in 2016, and the hiring of Hue Jackson proves that they're serious about competing soon. Jackson is one of the best offensive minds in football today, and he's already shown that he's got a plan for Duke Johnson. According to Jackson, "Duke has suddenness and quickness and he can go catch the ball with anybody...He does so many different things that gives your offense a boost." With Robert Griffin III, stud rookie Corey Coleman and a (hopefully) returning Josh Gordon, Jackson will be able to spread the offense all over the field. Johnson will benefit greatly from defenses having to account for the two dynamic wide receivers, a dangerous tight end in Gary Barnidge, and the fact that RGIII can take off and run at any given time. Someone will (usually) be open, and it will be Johnson a good amount of the time.

I'm not going to talk about Isaiah Crowell. The plodding running back will still have a role in the offense--ya know, whenever they need someone to fall forward for three or four yards. I see the Browns working out of the shotgun a ton, and it'll be Johnson on the field more often than Crowell. The Browns are still going to lose a bunch of games this year, and when they're down there's even more reason for Johnson to be on the field. If anything Johnson will steal some of Crowell's touches on the ground.

Ultimately Johnson's upside is too high not to love given his current ADP. FantasyPros has him as the #73 overall pick, or RB28 in standard formats. If he can catch 80 passes, which is well within the realm of possibility (Danny Woodhead did that last year), and add on 400-500 yards on the ground, Johnson should provide an outstanding return on his investment, especially in any kind of format that provides reception bonuses.

 

Matt Jones (RB, WAS) - Ben Ruppert

Matt Jones is set to be the starting running back for the Washington Redskins in 2016. Those in standard and PPR leagues should be targeting him as an RB2 for his ability to run and catch passes out of the backfield. The situation he is in now is perfect to set up Jones for a break-out season.

Jones accumulated nearly 800 yards from scrimmage last season as Alfred Morris’ backup. The rookie averaged 16 yards per reception last season, highlighted by his 78-yard scamper in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints. He also made a nifty one-handed grab for a first down in Week 9 against the New England Patriots. On passing downs when he is not going out for passes, he is an excellent pass blocker which should help keep him on the field for all three downs.

Jones did have issues with fumbles during his rookie season, but he would hardly be the first running back to have this problem early in their career--Tiki Barber and Adrian Peterson are two examples that come to mind. Not that I'm comparing Jones to either of those players, but both were able to overcome their issues and be top-flight NFL running backs. I believe with the work Jones is doing in the off-season, the same will apply for him. One way the coaching staff has helped is that they have given Jones a football that has sensors installed inside of it on key pressure points he should always be in contact with. When Jones is holding the ball properly, the ball is silent. However, when Jones is not holding the ball correctly on the sensors, it emits a warning signal that Jones and the coaching staff can hear. They can then call the play, and see where a correction needs to be made. ESPN's John Keim reports the Redskins have "seen what they wanted" from Matt Jones this spring. The Redskins will be much better off at running back than they were in 2015 if Jones performs this season the way he has practiced this spring.

Another big positive for Jones is his lack of competition on the team. The other running backs on the Redskins roster are Chris Thompson, Mack Brown, and seventh-round pick Keith Marshall. The only player who could eat into Jones’ touches are Chris Thompson, who will be the change-of-pace back every now and then. Jones has no real threat, and will handle the bulk of the carries for the Redskins in 2016. Offensive coordinator Sean McVay has said “You’re seeing a much more matured player. I’ve been extremely encouraged with him--his understanding of where he fits in his protections, consistency in his tracks.”

The Redskins have the pleasure of facing the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants twice each every season as well. These three teams all ranked in the bottom 10 teams in the league in rushing defense last season, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for big games for Jones. He has an excellent chance to break out and be a huge contributor this season for both the Redskins and for any fantasy owner smart enough to scoop him up.
WHO WON? WHO DO YOU WANT TO SEE NEXT? TWEET @ROTOBALLER AND LET US KNOW!

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aljamain Sterling

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Rashee Rice

Can Rashee Rice Put Together a Full Season of Production in 2026?
Norma Dumont

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Scores Upset Win
Alexander Hernandez

Gets Dominated
Alexander Hernandez

Rafa Garcia Dominates Alexander Hernandez
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Gets Back In The Win Column
Manny Machado

Clubs Two Homers, Starting to Turn Things Around?
Kyren Williams

Becoming a Better Dynasty Value by the Day
Ben Sinnott

Is it Time to Move on From Ben Sinnott?
Sam Darnold

Still a Reliable Dynasty Hold
Brandon Hagel

Pops Up With Two Goals in Sunday's Win
Justin Fields

Could Dynasty Managers See One More Sell Window for Justin Fields?
Nathan MacKinnon

Records Three Points in Series-Clincher
Dallas Goedert

a Dynasty Bargain After Flurry of Eagles' Moves
Bowen Byram

Extends Goal Streak to Three Games
John Carlson

Delivers Two Assists in Game 4 Victory
Connor McDavid

Bags Pair of Power-Play Assists in 100th Playoff Game
Jason Zucker

Makes Early Exit in Blowout Win
De'Aaron Fox

Notches Game-High 28 Points Sunday
Joel Embiid

Returns With Double-Double
Jayson Tatum

Logs 30-Point Double-Double in Sunday's Win
LeBron James

Quiet in Game 4 Loss to Rockets
Julius Randle

Handed $35K Fine for His Part in Game 4 Altercation
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Fined $50K for Game 4 Incident
Collin Murray-Boyles

Continues to Shine for Raptors
Deni Avdija

Returns to Form Sunday
Victor Wembanyama

Stuffs Stat Sheet in His Return
Austin Reaves

Won't Suit Up Sunday
Jonathan Isaac

Likely to Remain Out Monday
Isaiah Joe

Available for Game 4 Monday
Aaron Gordon

Uncertain for Monday
Jordan Goodwin

Considered Questionable for Monday's Elimination Game
Joel Embiid

Ready to Return Sunday
Mark Williams

to Remain Out Monday
Kevin Huerter

Listed as Questionable for Monday
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Cleared to Play Sunday
Anthony Edwards

Faces Multi-Week Absence
Kevin Durant

Remains Out Sunday
Emil Andrae

Expected to Rejoin Flyers Lineup Monday
Matvei Michkov

Set to Be Scratched for Game 5
Radko Gudas

Remains Sidelined Sunday
Jason Dickinson

a Game-Time Decision Sunday
Maxwell Crozier

to Replace Declan Carlile Sunday
Alexander Nikishin

Diagnosed With Concussion
Viktor Arvidsson

Exits Early Sunday
Theo Johnson

a Dynasty Faller After Busy Giants Offseason
Kyle Monangai

Remains a Dynasty Hold
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Remains a Locked-in Dynasty Stud
Jonah Coleman

Could Have Immediate Impact as Broncos' Short-Yardage Back
Jerry Jeudy

Browns Say Jerry Jeudy Will Not Be Impacted by Rookies
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List Due to Left-Wrist Fracture
Denny Hamlin

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering for Talladega?
Xavier Worthy

a Buy-Low Candidate for Dynasty Managers Following NFL Draft?
NASCAR

Is Bubba Wallace Playable in Talladega DFS Lineups?
Skyler Bell

Earning Comparisons to Elite NFL Wideout Following NFL Draft
Jayden Daniels

' Supporting Cast in Washington Remains Similar Following NFL Draft
Joe Burrow

Dynasty Value Remains Impacted by Injury Concerns
Josh Naylor

Absent on Sunday With Quad Tightness
Andrei Iosivas

Facing New Competition for Bengals' WR3 Role After NFL Draft
Tyjae Spears

Facing Competition in a Contract Year
Jaylen Wright

Remains an Appealing Handcuff Option Following NFL Draft
Ollie Gordon II

Fighting for a Roster Spot?
Ryan Helsley

Returns From Bereavement List on Sunday
Colby Parkinson

Facing More Competition Than Ever Before
Steven Kwan

Back in Sunday's Lineup
Brent Rooker

Activated and Starting on Sunday Against Rangers
Omarion Hampton

Faces Minimal Competition After the NFL Draft
Roman Anthony

Returns as DH on Sunday
Tyler Reddick

Stay Away From Tyler Reddick at Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Shake Off The Bad Luck at Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Could Contend For Another Talladega Win
Kyle Busch

an Easy DFS Pick at Talladega
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. a High-Risk, High-Reward Pick at Talladega
Todd Gilliland

a Sleeper to Watch at Talladega
Brad Keselowski

Is Brad Keselowski Worth Rostering for Talladega Lineups?
Chase Briscoe

Could Chase Briscoe be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Talladega Lineups?
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Managers Trust Christopher Bell at Talladega?
Ty Gibbs

Is A DFS Risk for Talladega Lineups
Arturs Silovs

Steps in and Saves Pittsburgh on Saturday
Sidney Crosby

Helps Lead Pittsburgh to Road Win Over Philadelphia
Brock Faber

a Huge Factor in Minnesota's Overtime Victory
Matt Boldy

Evens Series Between Minnesota and Dallas in Big Way
Frederik Andersen

a Game-Changer as Carolina Closes Out Ottawa
Logan Stankoven

Scores Yet Again as Carolina Sweeps Ottawa
Desmond Bane

Nails Seven Triples En Route to 25 Points
Boston Red Sox

Red Sox Fire Manager Alex Cora and Other Coaches
Josh Manson

Not Expected to Play Sunday
Mason Lohrei

Set to Miss Game 4 as Healthy Scratch
Steven Kwan

Scratched With Neck Stiffness
Trey Yesavage

Returning From Injured List on Tuesday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Heading to the Injured List With Oblique Strain
MLB

Saturday's Mets-Rockies Game Postponed Due to Weather
Giancarlo Stanton

Exits With Leg Tightness on Friday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Scratched on Friday With Mid-Back Pain
Jackson Holliday

Receives Positive Test Results, Will be Shut Down for a Week
Jeff Hoffman

Out as Blue Jays Closer
Youssef Zalal

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Main Event
Aljamain Sterling

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 116
Joselyne Edwards

Set For UFC Vegas 116 Co-Main Event
Norma Dumont

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Alexander Hernandez

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 116
Rafa Garcia

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Adrian Luna Martinetti

Set For His UFC Debut
Davey Grant

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Francisco Lindor

Expected to Miss "Significant Time"
Francisco Lindor

Mets Officially Place Francisco Lindor on Injured List With Calf Strain
Michael Harris II

Removed Early With Quad Tightness
Francisco Lindor

Likely Headed to the Injured List
Michael Harris II

Continues to Heat Up With Two-Homer Game on Wednesday
CFB

Beau Pribula Leading Virginia Quarterback Competition
Marco Penge

Trending Down Entering Zurich Classic
Sahith Theegala

Eyes Another Strong Week at Zurich Classic
Brooks Koepka

Shane Lowry Teams Up with Brooks Koepka at Zurich Classic
Si Woo Kim

Adds Another Strong Finish at RBC Heritage
Luke Clanton

Hoping to Find Form in New Orleans
Scottie Scheffler

is Starting to Hit His Stride
Brooks Koepka

Looking for Progress in PGA Return With Partner at Zurich Classic
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Share Recent Form at Zurich Classic
CFB

Ashton Daniels Named Florida State's Starting Quarterback
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF