👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


2016 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Duke Johnson vs. Matt Jones

We're well into fantasy football draft prep season, and RotoBaller is here to help. In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the preseason and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

This player comparison column comes from RotoBaller lead columnists Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) and Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21). Bill will defend the most exciting player on an unexciting team in Duke Johnson, while Ben extols the virtues of another young back with home run capability and a clear path to playing time in Matt Jones. Feel free to reach out to either or both with questions or opinions.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

Editor's Note: The FFPC Baby Gorilla Tournament is now open, featuring a $100,000 grand prize and a $675,450 total prize pool! This 12-team, Tight End Premium contest uses a 20-round draft format, with the overall winners determined by total points scored during Weeks 15–17. Get $25 to use toward your first entry by signing up through our link. Grab your team now! Sign Up Now!

 

Duke Johnson, Jr. (RB, CLE) - Bill Dubiel

After a pedestrian rookie season, Duke Johnson is primed for a breakout 2016 season. Boy, if that's not the most generic fantasy football analysis statement ever written, I don't know what is. However, just because it's cliché doesn't mean it's not true in this case.

Johnson was hyped a ton last year, and rightfully so. He finished his college career as the all-time leading rusher at Miami after being rated the number one running back in the nation coming out of high school. His trademarks were explosiveness and agility, a distinctive patience and burst that allowed him to hit holes and gain extra yards that didn't even appear to be there. On the downside he was not as effective as an interior runner, and there were plenty of concerns over his pass-blocking ability, not unlike Matt Jones.

It's clear watching Johnson at any level that he'll never be a ground-and-pound back--it's just not who he is. At 5'9" and roughly 210 lbs, he doesn't have the body to get in there and bang between the tackles. That absolutely doesn't matter from a fantasy standpoint, because Johnson's abilities as a pass-catcher will keep him fantasy-relevant for as long as he's on the field. Believe it or not (and I had to double-check this to make sure it was even accurate), Johnson was second among all NFL rookies in receptions with a whopping 61, behind only Amari Cooper.

The Browns organization is looking for a fresh start in 2016, and the hiring of Hue Jackson proves that they're serious about competing soon. Jackson is one of the best offensive minds in football today, and he's already shown that he's got a plan for Duke Johnson. According to Jackson, "Duke has suddenness and quickness and he can go catch the ball with anybody...He does so many different things that gives your offense a boost." With Robert Griffin III, stud rookie Corey Coleman and a (hopefully) returning Josh Gordon, Jackson will be able to spread the offense all over the field. Johnson will benefit greatly from defenses having to account for the two dynamic wide receivers, a dangerous tight end in Gary Barnidge, and the fact that RGIII can take off and run at any given time. Someone will (usually) be open, and it will be Johnson a good amount of the time.

I'm not going to talk about Isaiah Crowell. The plodding running back will still have a role in the offense--ya know, whenever they need someone to fall forward for three or four yards. I see the Browns working out of the shotgun a ton, and it'll be Johnson on the field more often than Crowell. The Browns are still going to lose a bunch of games this year, and when they're down there's even more reason for Johnson to be on the field. If anything Johnson will steal some of Crowell's touches on the ground.

Ultimately Johnson's upside is too high not to love given his current ADP. FantasyPros has him as the #73 overall pick, or RB28 in standard formats. If he can catch 80 passes, which is well within the realm of possibility (Danny Woodhead did that last year), and add on 400-500 yards on the ground, Johnson should provide an outstanding return on his investment, especially in any kind of format that provides reception bonuses.

 

Matt Jones (RB, WAS) - Ben Ruppert

Matt Jones is set to be the starting running back for the Washington Redskins in 2016. Those in standard and PPR leagues should be targeting him as an RB2 for his ability to run and catch passes out of the backfield. The situation he is in now is perfect to set up Jones for a break-out season.

Jones accumulated nearly 800 yards from scrimmage last season as Alfred Morris’ backup. The rookie averaged 16 yards per reception last season, highlighted by his 78-yard scamper in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints. He also made a nifty one-handed grab for a first down in Week 9 against the New England Patriots. On passing downs when he is not going out for passes, he is an excellent pass blocker which should help keep him on the field for all three downs.

Jones did have issues with fumbles during his rookie season, but he would hardly be the first running back to have this problem early in their career--Tiki Barber and Adrian Peterson are two examples that come to mind. Not that I'm comparing Jones to either of those players, but both were able to overcome their issues and be top-flight NFL running backs. I believe with the work Jones is doing in the off-season, the same will apply for him. One way the coaching staff has helped is that they have given Jones a football that has sensors installed inside of it on key pressure points he should always be in contact with. When Jones is holding the ball properly, the ball is silent. However, when Jones is not holding the ball correctly on the sensors, it emits a warning signal that Jones and the coaching staff can hear. They can then call the play, and see where a correction needs to be made. ESPN's John Keim reports the Redskins have "seen what they wanted" from Matt Jones this spring. The Redskins will be much better off at running back than they were in 2015 if Jones performs this season the way he has practiced this spring.

Another big positive for Jones is his lack of competition on the team. The other running backs on the Redskins roster are Chris Thompson, Mack Brown, and seventh-round pick Keith Marshall. The only player who could eat into Jones’ touches are Chris Thompson, who will be the change-of-pace back every now and then. Jones has no real threat, and will handle the bulk of the carries for the Redskins in 2016. Offensive coordinator Sean McVay has said “You’re seeing a much more matured player. I’ve been extremely encouraged with him--his understanding of where he fits in his protections, consistency in his tracks.”

The Redskins have the pleasure of facing the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants twice each every season as well. These three teams all ranked in the bottom 10 teams in the league in rushing defense last season, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for big games for Jones. He has an excellent chance to break out and be a huge contributor this season for both the Redskins and for any fantasy owner smart enough to scoop him up.
WHO WON? WHO DO YOU WANT TO SEE NEXT? TWEET @ROTOBALLER AND LET US KNOW!

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

CFB

Jadan Baugh Primed to Lead Florida Offense in 2026
CFB

LSU Hires Ed Orgeron As Special Assistant
NFL

Evan Stewart Pushing Oregon Receiving Corps
CFB

North Carolina and South Carolina Cancel Home-And-Home Series
CFB

Confidence High in Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor
MLB

Reds-Cardinals Game Postponed on Friday
New York Giants

Giants, GM Joe Schoen Agree on a Multi-Year Extension
Andrew Thomas

Giants Managing Multiple Injuries for Andrew Thomas
Cam Ward

Loses 10 Pounds in the Offseason
Trevor Story

has Hernia Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-10 Weeks
Roman Anthony

Dealing With Sprained Ligament in his Finger
Tucker Kraft

a Top Trade Target in Dynasty Leagues?
Cedric Tillman

Falling Out of Favor in Cleveland
Emmett Johnson

the Handcuff to Roster in Kansas City?
Devaughn Vele

Could Dynasty Managers Sell High on Devaughn Vele Early in the Season?
Brenen Thompson

a Perfect Fit for Chargers, Rising in Dynasty Leagues?
Jonathan Taylor

Is Jonathan Taylor Still a High-End Dynasty Option?
Malik Nabers

' Recovery Timeline Still Unclear
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Comfortably Into His Dynasty Prime
Saquon Barkley

Still a Capable League-Winner at a Sunken Dynasty Cost
Jack Campbell

Signs Four-Year Extension with Lions
Matthew Stafford

Signs One-Year Extension with Rams
Evan Mobley

Fills the Box Score in Game 2 Loss
James Harden

Held to Two Assists Thursday
Donovan Mitchell

Leads Cavaliers in Scoring in Game 2 Defeat
Karl-Anthony Towns

Records Double-Double in Game 2 Win
Sebastian Aho

Picks Up an Assist in Series-Opening Loss
Mikal Bridges

Adds 19 Points as Knicks Grab 2-0 Lead
Jalen Brunson

Hands Out 14 Assists in Game 2 Win
Seth Jarvis

Needs 33 Seconds to Score in Game 1 Loss
Josh Hart

Erupts for Playoff Career-High 26 Points in Game 2
Jaccob Slavin

Struggles in Game 1 Against Canadiens
Jakub Dobes

Sharp in Game 1 Victory
Cole Caufield

Bags Two Points in Impressive Road Win
Juraj Slafkovsky

Opens Conference Finals With Three-Point Performance
Nick Suzuki

Notches Three Assists in Game 1 Win Over Hurricanes
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Exits Early, X-Rays Come Back Negative
Jrue Holiday

Wants to Stay in Portland
Ayo Dosunmu

Timberwolves Hope to Bring Back Ayo Dosunmu
Dylan Harper

Considered Questionable for Friday Night
De'Aaron Fox

Listed as Questionable for Game 3
Jalen Williams

Questionable for Game 3 Against Spurs
Alex Tuch

Hopes to Remain in Buffalo
Sidney Crosby

Wants to Play for "as Many Years as Possible"
Troy Terry

Could Miss Start of Next Season Due to Hip Surgery
Arber Xhekaj

Scratched for Game 1 of Eastern Conference Finals
Jakub Dobes

Seeks More Success Against Hurricanes
Frederik Andersen

Looks to Stay Undefeated Thursday
Calvin Ridley

Not Taking Part in OTAs as Value Continues to Plummet
Carnell Tate

Receiving Early Buzz at OTAs
Ashton Jeanty

Bigger Role Could be Coming for Ashton Jeanty in Year 2
Robby Snelling

Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Malik Nabers

' Goal is to be Ready for Start of the Season
De'Von Achane

Dealing With Injury at OTAs?
Dalton Kincaid

Says he Feels "Really Good"
Devin Vassell

Contributes 22 Points in Wednesday's Loss
Stephon Castle

Tallies Team-High 25 Points in Game 2 Loss
Victor Wembanyama

Records Eighth Postseason Double-Double
Isaiah Hartenstein

Bounces Back With Double-Double
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads Thunder to Game 2 Victory WIth 30 Points
Dylan Harper

Exits Game 2 Early Due to Right-Leg Injury
Jalen Williams

Suffers Another Hamstring Injury
Valeri Nichushkin

Ends Scoring Slump in Game 1 Loss
Nathan MacKinnon

Extends Point Streak With an Assist
Brett Howden

Pots Another Goal in Game 1 Win Against Avalanche
Tomas Hertl

Extends Point Streak to Four Games
Pavel Dorofeyev

Scores in Fourth Straight Outing
Carter Hart

Records Third Consecutive Win
Timothy Liljegren

Capitals Re-Sign Timothy Liljegren to Two-Year Extension
Jackson Merrill

Tweaks his Back on Wednesday, Pulled Early
Chicago Bulls

Jerry Stackhouse Emerges as Bulls Head-Coach Candidate
Cooper Flagg

Kon Knueppel Headline All-Rookie Team
Jiri Kulich

Aims to Return Next Season
CFB

Lincoln Riley Believes USC is Ready for Playoff Run
CFB

Notre Dame-Stanford Rivalry Renewed Through 2028
CFB

Ahmad Hardy Says He's "Back to the Road to Success"
CFB

Texas Tech Graduate Judge Recuses Himself from Brendan Sorsby Case
CFB

UCLA Tackle Jordan Davis Officially Eligible for 2026 Season
CFB

Bret Bielema Supports Significant College Football Playoff Expansion
Michael Thorbjornsen

Brings High Upside to CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Luke List

Carrying Poor Form Into CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Tom Kim

Hoping to Build on Strong Myrtle Beach Finish
PGA

Sungjae Im Brings Upside to TPC Craig Ranch
Billy Horschel

Looking for Turnaround at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Adam Hadwin

Difficult to Trust at TPC Craig Ranch
Tony Finau

Looking for Consistency at TPC Craig Ranch
Luke Clanton

Searching for Form at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Aaron Rai

Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Wyndham Clark

Can Wyndham Clark Find Form at CJ Cup?
Si Woo Kim

Looks To Stay Hot at CJ Cup
Scottie Scheffler

to Defend CJ Cup Byron Nelson Title This Week
Jordan Spieth

Looking For Victory at TPC Craig Ranch
PGA

Matti Schmid Looks to Keep Recent Momentum Going at TPC Craig Ranch
Brooks Koepka

a High-Upside Play at CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Exits Early on Tuesday After Being Hit By Pitch
Chris Kirk

Continues Search For Putting Form at TPC Craig Ranch
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking to Shake Off Poor Major Showing at TPC Craig Ranch
Joel Dahmen

is of No DFS Consideration This Week in Dallas
Pierceson Coody

is Not The Fun DFS Play He Used to Be
Gerrit Cole

to Make Season Debut on Friday Against Rays
Drake Baldwin

Braves Place Drake Baldwin on Injured List With Oblique Strain
CFB

Ezavier Crowell has Immediate Opportunity at Alabama
CFB

Mark Bowman a Day 1 Impact Player for USC?
CFB

Bill Belichick Says Relationship with First North Carolina Team "Wasn't Great"
CFB

Kemario Taylor a Breakout Candidate at Quarterback
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss the Undisputed Top SEC Quarterback Entering 2026?
CFB

Rocco Becht The "Unifier" of Penn State's Roster
Jackson Holliday

Orioles Reinstate Jackson Holliday From Injured List on Monday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Braves Reinstate Ronald Acuna Jr. From Injured List on Monday
Jose Altuve

Astros Put Jose Altuve on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Corey Seager

Going on Injured List With Back Injury
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Reinstated and Starting on Monday Against Twins
Melquizael Costa

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 117
Arnold Allen

Bounces Back
Daniel Santos

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
MMA

Dohoo Choi Wins His Third Consecutive Fight
Malcolm Wellmaker

Suffers His Second Loss In A Row
Juan Diaz

Scores Second-Round Submission
Christian Edwards

Defeated At UFC Vegas 117
CFB

Transfer Running Back Arnold Barnes Visiting Iowa State on Monday
Modestas Bukauskas

Gets Split-Decision Win
Jhostynxon Garcia

Expected to Join the Pirates on Tuesday
Colt Emerson

Mariners Promoting Top Prospect Colt Emerson to Major Leagues
Munetaka Murakami

Fantastic First Season Continues With Two More Homers
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Dazzles With 13-Strikeout Complete Game on Saturday
Blake Snell

to Undergo Elbow Surgery on Tuesday
Clay Holmes

Could Miss Around Three Months
Jose Altuve

Exits After Swing
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF