👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

2016 Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Duke Johnson vs. Matt Jones

We're well into fantasy football draft prep season, and RotoBaller is here to help. In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the preseason and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

This player comparison column comes from RotoBaller lead columnists Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) and Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21). Bill will defend the most exciting player on an unexciting team in Duke Johnson, while Ben extols the virtues of another young back with home run capability and a clear path to playing time in Matt Jones. Feel free to reach out to either or both with questions or opinions.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!

 

Duke Johnson, Jr. (RB, CLE) - Bill Dubiel

After a pedestrian rookie season, Duke Johnson is primed for a breakout 2016 season. Boy, if that's not the most generic fantasy football analysis statement ever written, I don't know what is. However, just because it's cliché doesn't mean it's not true in this case.

Johnson was hyped a ton last year, and rightfully so. He finished his college career as the all-time leading rusher at Miami after being rated the number one running back in the nation coming out of high school. His trademarks were explosiveness and agility, a distinctive patience and burst that allowed him to hit holes and gain extra yards that didn't even appear to be there. On the downside he was not as effective as an interior runner, and there were plenty of concerns over his pass-blocking ability, not unlike Matt Jones.

It's clear watching Johnson at any level that he'll never be a ground-and-pound back--it's just not who he is. At 5'9" and roughly 210 lbs, he doesn't have the body to get in there and bang between the tackles. That absolutely doesn't matter from a fantasy standpoint, because Johnson's abilities as a pass-catcher will keep him fantasy-relevant for as long as he's on the field. Believe it or not (and I had to double-check this to make sure it was even accurate), Johnson was second among all NFL rookies in receptions with a whopping 61, behind only Amari Cooper.

The Browns organization is looking for a fresh start in 2016, and the hiring of Hue Jackson proves that they're serious about competing soon. Jackson is one of the best offensive minds in football today, and he's already shown that he's got a plan for Duke Johnson. According to Jackson, "Duke has suddenness and quickness and he can go catch the ball with anybody...He does so many different things that gives your offense a boost." With Robert Griffin III, stud rookie Corey Coleman and a (hopefully) returning Josh Gordon, Jackson will be able to spread the offense all over the field. Johnson will benefit greatly from defenses having to account for the two dynamic wide receivers, a dangerous tight end in Gary Barnidge, and the fact that RGIII can take off and run at any given time. Someone will (usually) be open, and it will be Johnson a good amount of the time.

I'm not going to talk about Isaiah Crowell. The plodding running back will still have a role in the offense--ya know, whenever they need someone to fall forward for three or four yards. I see the Browns working out of the shotgun a ton, and it'll be Johnson on the field more often than Crowell. The Browns are still going to lose a bunch of games this year, and when they're down there's even more reason for Johnson to be on the field. If anything Johnson will steal some of Crowell's touches on the ground.

Ultimately Johnson's upside is too high not to love given his current ADP. FantasyPros has him as the #73 overall pick, or RB28 in standard formats. If he can catch 80 passes, which is well within the realm of possibility (Danny Woodhead did that last year), and add on 400-500 yards on the ground, Johnson should provide an outstanding return on his investment, especially in any kind of format that provides reception bonuses.

 

Matt Jones (RB, WAS) - Ben Ruppert

Matt Jones is set to be the starting running back for the Washington Redskins in 2016. Those in standard and PPR leagues should be targeting him as an RB2 for his ability to run and catch passes out of the backfield. The situation he is in now is perfect to set up Jones for a break-out season.

Jones accumulated nearly 800 yards from scrimmage last season as Alfred Morris’ backup. The rookie averaged 16 yards per reception last season, highlighted by his 78-yard scamper in Week 10 against the New Orleans Saints. He also made a nifty one-handed grab for a first down in Week 9 against the New England Patriots. On passing downs when he is not going out for passes, he is an excellent pass blocker which should help keep him on the field for all three downs.

Jones did have issues with fumbles during his rookie season, but he would hardly be the first running back to have this problem early in their career--Tiki Barber and Adrian Peterson are two examples that come to mind. Not that I'm comparing Jones to either of those players, but both were able to overcome their issues and be top-flight NFL running backs. I believe with the work Jones is doing in the off-season, the same will apply for him. One way the coaching staff has helped is that they have given Jones a football that has sensors installed inside of it on key pressure points he should always be in contact with. When Jones is holding the ball properly, the ball is silent. However, when Jones is not holding the ball correctly on the sensors, it emits a warning signal that Jones and the coaching staff can hear. They can then call the play, and see where a correction needs to be made. ESPN's John Keim reports the Redskins have "seen what they wanted" from Matt Jones this spring. The Redskins will be much better off at running back than they were in 2015 if Jones performs this season the way he has practiced this spring.

Another big positive for Jones is his lack of competition on the team. The other running backs on the Redskins roster are Chris Thompson, Mack Brown, and seventh-round pick Keith Marshall. The only player who could eat into Jones’ touches are Chris Thompson, who will be the change-of-pace back every now and then. Jones has no real threat, and will handle the bulk of the carries for the Redskins in 2016. Offensive coordinator Sean McVay has said “You’re seeing a much more matured player. I’ve been extremely encouraged with him--his understanding of where he fits in his protections, consistency in his tracks.”

The Redskins have the pleasure of facing the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants twice each every season as well. These three teams all ranked in the bottom 10 teams in the league in rushing defense last season, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for big games for Jones. He has an excellent chance to break out and be a huge contributor this season for both the Redskins and for any fantasy owner smart enough to scoop him up.
WHO WON? WHO DO YOU WANT TO SEE NEXT? TWEET @ROTOBALLER AND LET US KNOW!

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Chase Elliott

Could Chase Elliott Be Worth Rostering At EchoPark Speedway?
Ryan Blaney

Is Ryan Blaney Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Christopher Morel

is Getting Comfortable at First Base
Taylor Walls

is Making Spring Debut on Sunday
Lenyn Sosa

Likely Headed Towards Bench Role
Joe Ryan

is Dealing with Back Inflammation
William Byron

Is William Byron Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Jordan Westburg

has Uncertain Timetable to Return
Rondale Moore

Passes Away
Denny Hamlin

Is Worth Consideration for EchoPark Speedway DFS Lineups
Brad Keselowski

Is A Tournament Option for DFS At EchoPark Speedway
NASCAR

Is Bubba Wallace Rosterable In DFS At EchoPark Speedway?
Austin Cindric

Should DFS Players Roster Austin Cindric At EchoPark Speedway?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Sneaky DFS Option for EchoPark Speedway?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Alex Bowman

Will Start Towards the Rear At EchoPark Speedway
Anfernee Simons

Exits Early In Loss To Detroit
Kristaps Porzingis

On Track To Play Sunday
Shaedon Sharpe

Remains Unavailable Sunday
John Collins

to Miss Orlando Game
Aaron Nesmith

to Miss Second Straight Game
Ivica Zubac

Remains Sidelined Sunday
Rudy Gobert

Suspended One Game Sunday
Devin Booker

to Miss at Least One Week
Dillon Brooks

Suffers a Broken Hand
Tyler Samaniego

Dealing with Back Tightness
Cam Schlittler

Throws Bullpen Session on Saturday
Cody Freeman

to Miss Significant Time with Back Fracture
Javonte Williams

Cowboys Sign Javonte Williams to Three-Year, $24 Million Extension
Logan Gilbert

to Make Spring Debut on Monday
Jonathon Long

Exits With Left-Elbow Sprain
Walter Clayton Jr.

is Ready to Go for Saturday
Dru Smith

is Available for Saturday's Game
Davion Mitchell

Won't Play on Saturday
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic is Ruled Out for Saturday's Contest
Norman Powell

is Cleared for Saturday's Game
Tyler Herro

is Available to Play on Saturday
Dejounte Murray

Remains Sidelined on Saturday
Joel Armia

Wraps Up Olympics With Three-Point Performance
Daniil Tarasov

Available for Panthers
Evan Rodrigues

Set to Return Next Week
Aaron Ekblad

Expected to Play Thursday
Pavel Zacha

Cleared for Action
Cooper Flagg

Still Sidelined on Sunday
VAN

Jonathan Lekkerimaki Needs Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
Scottie Barnes

Ruled Out on Sunday
Mikko Rantanen

Misses Bronze-Medal Game With Lower-Body Injury
Grayson Allen

Back on Saturday Night, Will Come Off the Bench
Jalen Suggs

Won't Suit Up on Saturday
Jaden Ivey

Shut Down for at Least Two Weeks
Joe Ryan

Scratched From Grapefruit League Start With Back Tightness
Merrill Kelly

Scratched From Live BP With Back Tightness
Jack Suwinski

Dodgers Claim Jack Suwinski Off Waivers From Pirates
Andrew Vaughn

Can Andrew Vaughn Repeat 2025 Breakout Success?
Brenton Doyle

Carries Buy-Low Potential Heading into 2026
Jack Flaherty

Can Jack Flaherty Bounce Back After 2025 Struggles?
Colton Cowser

Looking to Rebound from Injury-Marred 2025 Campaign
Yandy Díaz

Can Yandy Diaz Repeat 2025 Power Surge?
Sal Stewart

Playing Second Base in First Spring Training Outing
Kevin McGonigle

Starting at Shortstop in Grapefruit League Opener
Bo Bichette

Batting Third in Mets Spring Training Debut
Blake Coleman

Activated From Injured Reserve
Matt Rempe

Heading to Injured Reserve After Second Thumb Procedure
Sidney Crosby

a Game-Time Call for Olympic Final
Josh Morrissey

Won't Play Sunday
Filip Chytil

Out Indefinitely With Facial Fracture
Connor McDavid

Makes History With Another Multi-Point Outing
Tage Thompson

Expected to Play in Olympic Final
Travis Etienne Jr.

has "Legitimate Interest" in Joining Chiefs
Zach Charbonnet

Undergoes Knee Surgery on Friday
CFB

Curt Cignetti Agrees to New Deal With Indiana, Will Earn $13.2 Million Per Year
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Returns to Practice
Josh Morrissey

Remains Out Against Finland
Sidney Crosby

Won't Play Friday
Anthony Hernandez

Set For UFC Houston Main Event
Sean Strickland

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Uros Medic

Set For UFC Houston Co-Main Event
Geoff Neal

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Melquizael Costa

A Favorite At UFC Houston
Dan Ige

An Underdog At UFC Houston
Logan Cooley

Sheds Non-Contact Jersey
Maxwell Crozier

to Miss 10 Weeks After Surgery
Kirill Marchenko

Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Petr Mrazek

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
Rashee Rice

Accused of Assault by Long-Time Girlfriend
Ben Griffin

Looking to Return to Top Form at Riviera
Keegan Bradley

Looking to Build Momentum at Riviera
J.J. Spaun

Putting a Major Concern at Riviera
Sepp Straka

May Have Tough Time at The Genesis Invitational
Shane Lowry

Trending Up Entering the Genesis Invitational
Justin Rose

Off Most Radars at The Genesis Invitational
Robert MacIntyre

a Long Hitter to Watch at Riviera Country Club
Jake Knapp

Red-Hot Heading to Riviera
Min Woo Lee

Attempts to Build Momentum After Pebble Beach
Harry Hall

an Unknown for The Genesis Invitational
Matt Fitzpatrick

Has Favorable Path to Success at Riviera This Week
Wyndham Clark

Not Likely to Contend at Genesis Invitational
Ludvig Aberg

Might Find the Genesis Invitational More Challenging
Harris English

Carries Strong Form to Riviera
Patrick Cantlay

Eyes Another Strong Week at The Genesis Invitational
Daniel Berger

Needs Short Game to Show Up at Riviera
Sam Burns

Hopes Return to Form Continues at Riviera
Collin Morikawa

Riding Wave of Victory Into Riviera
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Have Repeat Success at The Genesis Invitational
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Find Paydirt at Riviera
Xander Schauffele

Rounding into Form Before Genesis Invitational
Mike Evans

Will Return in 2026
Kenneth Walker III

Seahawks Not Expected to Use Franchise Tag on Kenneth Walker III
Bucky Irving

Undergoes Offseason Shoulder Surgery
Tyreek Hill

Says he Will Play in 2026
Joey Logano

Finishes Third in the 2026 Daytona 500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Finishes as the Runner-Up in the Daytona 500
Chase Elliott

Falls Short of His First Daytona 500 Victory Again
Brad Keselowski

Ends Daytona 500 With a Top-Five Finish
Tyler Reddick

Wins the Daytona 500 for the First Time with 23XI Racing
Tyreek Hill

Released by Dolphins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF