11 Breakout Fantasy Baseball Pitching Prospects: Draft Sleepers to Target (2026)

January 29, 2026

Andy's top pitching prospects fantasy baseball breakout candidates for 2026 drafts. His favorite MLB prospect pitcher sleepers, values and SP breakout picks.

Fantasy baseball drafts are beginning to heat up, which means it's time to look at this season's top prospects. Earlier in the offseason, we took a look at the 12 hitter fantasy baseball prospect breakouts who could make an impact in 2026, and now it's time to turn our attention to the bump.

The MLB has seen a massive influx of young arms such as Paul Skenes, Bryan Woo, and Garrett Crochet, who have already established themselves as fantasy aces heading into next season.

All pitchers discussed are considered prospects on MLB.com. While some young arms like Chase Burns may have logged only 43 1/3 innings, he is no longer viewed as a prospect by MLB Pipeline, which will keep him off this list for the sake of formality. Who are the 11 pitching prospects you should be familiar with ahead of your draft? Let's dive in!

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Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 160.2

The first three prospects on this list all made their respective MLB debuts and made a major impact. Yesavage had a modest MLB debut, logging 14 innings and posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. However, in the postseason, the former 20th overall pick from the 2024 MLB Draft made a name for himself on the national stage.

In the postseason, Yesavage racked up 39 punchouts across 27 2/3 innings. He posted two double-digit punchout performances in the World Series over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

HISTORY: Trey Yesavage's 12th strikeout of the night breaks the rookie record for Ks in a #WorldSeries game! pic.twitter.com/OxpgPT0Ug9

— MLB (@MLB) October 30, 2025

In his limited stint, he saw his slider rack up whiffs at a high 30.6% rate (28.5% usage), and his splitter (26.4% usage) generated an eye-catching 57.1% whiff rate. Early in the season, the left-hander tallied 160 punchouts across 98 innings in the Toronto system.

Yesavage has immense strikeout upside that is worth reaching for in your drafts.

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 162.8

Bubba Chandler was expected to debut almost out of camp in 2025, but saw his MLB debut pushed back to August 22. While he stumbled through Triple-A during most of the season, once he reeled in Pittsburgh, Chandler rounded into form. Through 31 1/3 innings in the big leagues, the right-hander posted a 4.02 ERA and a neat 0.93 WHIP.

However, removing his lone nine-inning explosion that significantly inflated the ratios, Chandler would have posted a 1.57 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, with a 28:1 K:BB through his first 28 2/3 innings.

While his four-seamers were hit hard in his first look against MLB hitters (.405 xwOBA), his secondary pitches, his changeup, slider, and curveball were nearly unhittable. His slider generated a remarkable .150 xwOBA and a 39.6% whiff rate, while being deployed at a 22.6% rate.

More importantly, the one problem that kept him in the mines for so long was his command. However, he was able to quickly fix this issue, allowing just one walk in his first month in Pittsburgh. While managers should not expect this elite command over a 162-game pace, seeing Chandler already take a step forward in this department suggests he could make a massive impact over a full season.

Given his current ADP, he could provide a massive return as a high-end SP3.

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 103.0

The other prospect pitcher going inside the "early" rounds is Nolan McLean of the Mets. When looking at raw production, McLean had the biggest impact in fantasy last season. Through his first 48 innings, the right-hander logged an elite 2.08 ERA with a strong 1.04 WHIP. Ascending through the minor leagues, McLean tossed 113 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A and posted a 2.45 ERa, 1.13 WHIP with a 127:50 K:BB (27.2% K%).

However, in the majors, McLean saw his K% soar to 30.3% as he tallied 57 across this brief stint.

Managers should expect his strikeout to drop a bit over his first season, as his high 21.2% CStr% over his first stint with the Mets set a career-high. Additionally, during this stint, he saw his SwStr% fall from 12.0% (in the minors) to 10.9%, suggesting his bolstering strikeout numbers are expected to decline over a full season.

His general swing-and-miss rate for each of his pitches (outside of his curveball and sinker) also declined over the final month of the 2025 season.

While McLean could still provide high-end SP3 upside, he carries a little more risk given his current inflated ADP. His ratios should remain strong (as evidenced by his above-average 3.53 xERA and elite 60.2% ground-ball rate), but expect a dip in strikeout production.

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 412.3

The 23-year-old received a brief taste in the majors like the first names on our list, but stumbled, posting an overall 6.06 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP. Over his seven appearances, he started three of them and pitched out of the bullpen in the other four. He struggled as a starter, allowing nine runs in 10 1/3 innings. However, as a reliever, the southpaw flashed upside, logging six innings of two-run ball with 7:2 K:BB.

Earlier in the summer, Tolle made his professional debut with High-A and, like Yesavage, rapidly ascended through the system, ending the season with Boston. Across 91 2/3 innings in the Boston system, Tolle posted a strong 3.03 ERA with a dominant 0.99 WHIP and an eye-catching 133:23 K:BB. He generated a 2.75 FIP with a 30.2% K-BB%.

The raw profile is unmatched; the only concern with Tolle is his projected role, which is why his ADP is so low. With Ranger Suarez now in Boston, Tolle may open the seasonin the bullpen, or even Triple-A before he earns a spot in the rotation. Nonetheless, he will be a must-stash candidate in the early weeks if he were to miss out on the opening rotation.

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 302.9

While Jacob Misiorowski stole the Milwaukee pitching headlines in 2025, don't sleep on Logan Henderson. Henderson had a far more stable year in the majors, logging 25 1/3 innings to the tune of a 1.78 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.

Henderson primarily relied on two pitches (four-seamer and changeup) for a combined 88.8% usage. These two pitches carried a whiff rate above 28.0% and generated a representative .304 xwOBA and a .284 xwOBA. His No. 3 pitch, his cutter, which he threw only 7.8% of the time, posted an elite .228 xwOBA with a 7.8% whiff rate.

First Big League inning for Logan?

Two strikeouts 🔥 pic.twitter.com/0KEuDS1U5R

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) April 20, 2025

Over his five MLB starts, Henderson posted a remarkable 33.3% K% thanks to his elite 1-2 four-seamer and changeup. While his season was cut short by an elbow injury, he appears to be at full strength and should be in line to begin the season in the rotation. If he shows similar strikeout potential in spring training, expect his ADP to skyrocket.

With Freddy Peralta now in New York, Henderson is primed to not only open camp with a strong chance to earn a role in the rotation but also hold it for most of the season.

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 364.4

Jonah Tong was looking even more dominant than his teammate, McLean, in the minor leagues. in the first half of 2025. Through 113 1/23 innings (primarily spent at Double-A), Tong posted an elite 1.43 ERA with 0.92 WHIP. He struck out 179 hitters and allowed 47 walks before earning the call. However, McLean would be far more productive in Queens as Tong struggled, allowing 16 runs over his first five MLB starts.

He would strike out only 22 hitters (in 18 2/3 innings)and allowed nine walks. Even though his debut did not go as planned, his 40.5% K% through the upper levels of the Mets system should put him on your redraft radar.

In 2025, Tong generated a 52.9% ground-ball rate in the minor leagues with a strong 2.16 xFIP. Even in his limited sample in the big leagues, his four-seamer (57.4% usage) generated a .348 xwOBA, below his surface-level .411 wOBA. Like Tolle, the only concern with Tong is his early-season usage.

Given New York's current rotation (and adding the previously mentioned Peralta), Tong will likely begin the season either as the No. 6/bulk pitcher or back at Triple-A. Even if his early-season value were to take a hit, he would hold high-end stash upside like Tolle for 12+ team formats.

Hunter Barco, Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 676.8

Following a trend, we will also discuss a teammate of a previous Pittsburgh pitcher we discussed. Unlike Chandler, Hunter Barco logged a mere three innings in a very brief MLB debut in 2025 and did not allow a run.

In the minor leagues (99 1/3 innings pitched with Double-A and Triple-A), Barco was the most dominant arm in the Pittsburgh system, holding a 2.81 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP. He struck out hitters at a 27.8% rate with a modest 11.8% walk rate. Despite facing tougher opposition, he generated a 45.8% ground-ball rate, which was right in line with his 46.4% ground-ball rate he generated the season prior.

In fact, Barco logged 25 2/3 straight shutout innings at Double-A to open the season.

The left-hander also lowered his HR/FB% from 11.0% in 2024 to a strong 6.0% in 2025. While his strikeout potential is not overpowering like many names on this list, Barco should have a good chance to break camp in the Opening Day rotation with Jared Jones (elbow) still recovering.

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 229.2

The final pitcher we will discuss that debuted last season is Connelly Early of the Red Sox. While Tolle stumbled in his debut, Early succeeded, tossing 19 1/3 innings with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He posted a 36.7% K rate while allowing free passes at a 5.1% rate. In his first look in Boston, Early deployed a hefty six-pitch mix.

He primarily relies on his four-seamer, curveball, and changeup, all of which generated a .232, .178, and .272 xwOBA. His curveball did most of the strikeout work, generating an eye-catching 39.4% whiff rate.

Earlier in 2025, Early had the same upside in the minors (Double-A and Triple-A), posting a 2.60 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. During this stretch, the 23-year-old showed similar strikeout potential, generating a 31.9% K rate but a slightly higher 9.7% BB rate.

Despite his promising debut, his 2026 outlook is tough to predict at the moment. While he would figure to get the nod in the rotation before Tolle, the crowded nature of the rotation keeps him in the late-round territory for most standard leagues.

If he were to miss out, he would carry high-end stash appeal in the first month of the season.

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 353.6

Once considered the potential top pitching prospect in the entire sport, Andrew Painter has seen his fantasy stock take a bit of a dip due to his length injury history and struggles in 2025. After missing all of 2023 and 2024, Painter returned to the bump in 2025 and was in line to debut in the majors, but was unable to earn the call from Lehigh Valley.

Through 106 2/3 innings with the top club in the Phillies system, the right-hander posted a modest 5.40 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP. He tallied 112 punchouts and walked 46 hitters. In 2022, Painter posted a 1.56 ERA with a 155:25 K:BB across 103 2/3 innings in the lower levels.

Despite high ratios, Painter generated a 41.2% ground-ball rate with a 33.3% fly-ball rate, both of which were improvements over his 2022 production (35.3% GB%, 47.1% FB%). Instead, it was his command that hindered his production. His 9.0% BB% in 2025 was nearly a three-point jump from the 6.2% BB% he posted back in 2022.

While the Boston pitchers will have to compete for their spot in the rotation, Painter appears all but locked for a spot, following the departure of Suarez. If Painter can show improved command in the spring, he would be worth a flyer in the final rounds of your draft. The elite strikeout upside is still there.

Thomas White, Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 471.6

Among the pitchers on this list, one may not have better raw talent than Thomas White. White, the No. 22-ranked prospect in the sport (according to MLB.com), spent most of 2025 with High-A and Double-A before earning a brief 9 1/3 inning stint at Triple-A. Despite his minimal experience, he has a path to compete for a spot in the rotation out of spring training, following the trades of Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers.

Through 89 2/3 innings last summer, the left-hander struck out a ridiculous 145 hitters with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. His production seems legit, as evidenced by his 2.80 xFIP.

He generated flyballs at a low 39.6% rate and surrendered only two total home runs in 2025.

White is a must-watch pitcher in spring training. If he can earn a spot on the Opening Day roster, he would become a must-draft pitcher in all leagues.

Every strikeout from Thomas White's Triple-A debut!🔥 pic.twitter.com/U72fNiK906

— Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (@JaxShrimp) September 7, 2025

Robby Snelling, Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP (since January 1) - 356.6

Rounding out this list will be the more likely candidate open the season in the Miami rotation, Robby Snelling. Snelling had a slow start to this season at Double-A but flipped the script once he made his debut with Triple-A Jacksonville. With the top team in the Miami system, the southpaw posted a dominant 1.27 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP.

He struck out 81 hitters while allowing 17 free passes across a 63 2/3 inning stint. He generated a remarkable 0.57 HR/9 with a 2.82 xFIP, which was the best mark of his minor league career (in a respective stint).

Additionally, his 32.9% K% marked a career high, as did his 26.0% K-BB%.

Given his near dominance at Triple-A, expect Snelling's ADP to continue to rise as draft season begins to pick up. Given Miami's current roster, Snelling appears to be a near-lock for a full-time role to begin 2026.

Other Pitcher Prospects to Know

• Kade Anderson, SEA
• Blade Tidwell, SF
• Jarlin Susana, WAS
• Noah Schultz, CWS
• Carlos Lagrange, NYY
• Gage Jump, ATH
• Tyler Bremner, LAA

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