X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Three First Basemen Who Will Outperform Their 2015 ADP

Bang For Your Draft Day Buck

First base is a treasure trove for bargain hunters this year with three players in particular standing out. All three struggled in 2014 and have seen their draft day stock plummet as a result. Ready for some 2015 fantasy baseball bounceback candidates? Let's begin with Mr. Second Breakfast himself...
 

Prince Fielder (Average ADP: 64.5)

Power is becoming increasingly hard to come by in the modern age. Only 27 players hit more than 25 home runs last year. Of them, only 11 hit more than 30. As you can see, this is hardly anything new:

Year 25+ Home Run Hitters 30+ Home Run Hitters
2012 44 27
2013 30 14
2014 27 11

 

Where does Prince Fielder fit in? Simply put, he's one of the very few players going outside of the first five rounds who I could project for more than 30 home runs without being an utter liability in the batting average department (think Chris Davis). Having shown the ability to reliably hit above the .275 threshold, the 30 home run version of Prince Fielder is head and shoulders above his fellow seventh rounders and a true value gem.

Of course, Fielder comes with risk. If he didn't, he wouldn't be a seventh round pick after all. Fielder's last two seasons have seen a marked drop off from his traditional production and durability. Why then all this optimism surrounding the lumbering first baseman? It begins with his new home park. Take a moment to compare how Arlington stacks up against Fielder's former home in Detroit:

2014 Left Handed Park Factors Texas Rangers Detroit Tigers
Home Runs 6th 15th
Singles 4th 3rd
Doubles 10th 30th

 

Arlington was built for a hitter like Fielder. Furthermore, as power declines throughout the league, it becomes easier and easier to take a risk on a player like him.

Is it even a risk? Fielder has only hit the disabled list once in his major league career, notably missing just one game between all of 2009 and 2013. Moreover, we've never really seen a 'bad' season from a healthy Prince Fielder. His last year in Detroit, the worst full season of his career, still resulted in a .274 batting average, 25 home runs, 106 RBI, 82 Runs scored, and even a novelty stolen base.

Altogether, Fielder pairs an arguably high floor with a much higher ceiling. Getting that in the seventh round? Sign me up any day.
 

Pedro Alvarez (Average ADP: 249.5)

Let's continue the “power is scarce” theme with my next value pick: Pedro Alvarez. In many ways 2014 was an odd year for the young Pirate. He posted some of the worst raw numbers of his short career, yet improved many of his key peripheral stats. Compared to the previous year, Alvarez cut his strikeout rate by almost 5%, upped his walk rate by over 2%, and cut his GB/FB rate for the second time in two years.

Could Alvarez hit 30 home runs again? Maybe. He certainly has the skill set to do it, having led the NL in home runs just two years ago. Considering how little the Pirates have behind him at first base (i.e. Corey Hart), he shouldn't want for at-bats.

Granted, his utter inability to hit for anything approaching a quality batting average will mean that not every team can afford to roster a player like Alvarez. For those who do have room for him, I would strongly advise a long hard look. The earliest I've seen Alvarez go in drafts is at CBS where he's averaging a late 19th round pick. On some sites, he's actually going undrafted. Given how hard it is to find power nowadays, Alvarez won't have to do much to justify a late round lottery ticket. A 30-32 home run season? That would certainly do it.
 

Joey Votto (Average ADP: 71.2)

There are few bounceback candidates I'm higher on for 2015 than Joey Votto. I don't need to tell you about what went wrong last season. The perennial All-Star watched his entire game sink to career lows as he battled through a left quadriceps strain which would end up costing him 100 games by season's end. All reports out of Reds camp so far this spring suggest that the injury is behind the former MVP.

"I'm really pleased with how he's moving around, how he looked in the cage, how he looked at first base,” shared manager Bryan Price to MLB.com. “He was throwing the ball well, looked spry. I was happy to see that for sure."

"I've been swinging, throwing," echoed Votto. "I'm taking ground balls and running. It feels like a big contrast to where I was during the season and at the end of the season."

Maybe that's just “best shape of his life” talk, but I do find it encouraging. Votto is among the most polished hitters in major league baseball and can be an utter force of nature when healthy. He'll be 31 years old next season and has played at least 150 games in three of the last five seasons. Prior to last year he was a career .314 hitter averaging roughly 22 home runs each year. If you miss out on Fielder in the seventh, I don't think you can do much better than Votto in the eighth.
 

Parting Thoughts

Feel like there's someone I missed? Considering how many players are out there on draft day, it's impossible to get to everybody, but if there's a first baseman you'd like to hear more about feel free hit me up on twitter @KBraver. I'm always happy to chat.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mitchell Marner8 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick In Victory
Alex Lyon8 hours ago

Earns Third Consecutive Victory
Jeremy Swayman8 hours ago

Posts Shutout Against Sharks
Zach Charbonnet8 hours ago

Pete Carroll Believes Zach Charbonnet Has A Bruised Knee
CeeDee Lamb9 hours ago

Has Another Huge Game In Week 13
Kareem Hunt11 hours ago

Limited On Thursday
Matt McLain11 hours ago

Fully Healed
Shohei Ohtani12 hours ago

Wins Most Outstanding Designated Hitter Award
Chris Paul12 hours ago

To Be Re-Evaluated On Monday
Aaron Gordon12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Jamal Murray12 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday
Moses Moody12 hours ago

Shifts Into Starting Five
Grayson Allen12 hours ago

Removed From Injury Report
Devin Booker12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
LaMelo Ball12 hours ago

To Be Re-Evaluated In One Week
Treylon Burks13 hours ago

Puts In Full Practice Thursday
Noah Brown13 hours ago

Limited Again Thursday
Kenneth Walker III14 hours ago

Officially Inactive In Week 13
LeBron James14 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Kelly Olynyk14 hours ago

Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk Remain Questionable
Dorian Thompson-Robinson14 hours ago

Still In Concussion Protocol
Anthony Davis14 hours ago

Likely To Play Against Thunder
Amari Cooper14 hours ago

Back At Practice Thursday
Markelle Fultz14 hours ago

Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz Both Out Friday
Kelly Oubre14 hours ago

Jr. Aiming To Return Next Week
Jerry Jeudy14 hours ago

Marvin Mims Jr. Limited Thursday
Joel Embiid14 hours ago

Questionable Friday With Illness
Andrew Wiggins14 hours ago

Not Playing Against Clippers
Dallas Goedert15 hours ago

Trending In The Wrong Direction
Zach Hyman15 hours ago

Ready To Return On Thursday
Juuso Valimaki15 hours ago

Back For Coyotes On Thursday
Ilya Mikheyev15 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Dougie Hamilton15 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Aaron Rodgers15 hours ago

Takes The Day Off
Radko Gudas15 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Andrei Svechnikov15 hours ago

Expected Back On Thursday
Mark Kastelic16 hours ago

Ridly Greig Placed On Long-Term IR By Senators
Trey McBride16 hours ago

Limited On Thursday
Thomas Chabot16 hours ago

Activated Off Injured Reserve, Could Play Friday
Gabriel Vilardi16 hours ago

Activated Off Injured Reserve, Could Play Thursday
De'Von Achane16 hours ago

Limited Again Thursday
Kent Johnson16 hours ago

Recalled From AHL
DET16 hours ago

Patrick Kane Hoping For Season Debut In 7-10 Days
Tee Higgins16 hours ago

Plans To Play Monday Night
Tim Hardaway16 hours ago

Jr. Questionable With Back Spasms
Mark Giordano16 hours ago

Week-To-Week With Broken Finger
Trey Murphy16 hours ago

III Could Make Season Debut Friday
Bojan Bogdanovic17 hours ago

Downgraded To Out Thursday
Devin Booker17 hours ago

Up In The Air For Friday
Rashid Shaheed17 hours ago

Out For Second Straight Day
Chris Olave17 hours ago

Participating In Practice Again Thursday
Diontae Johnson17 hours ago

Out Sick Thursday
Paolo Banchero17 hours ago

Probable With Sprained Ankle
Keenan Allen17 hours ago

Working Off To The Side Thursday
Chris Godwin17 hours ago

Pops Up On Injury Report
Anthony Edwards17 hours ago

No Shootaround For Anthony Edwards Thursday
Dylan Cease18 hours ago

Cardinals Interested In Dylan Cease
Demario Douglas18 hours ago

Absent From Thursday's Practice
Joaquim Silva18 hours ago

Looking To Return To The Win Column
Clay Guida18 hours ago

Set For 36th UFC Fight
Kelvin Gastelum18 hours ago

Returns To Welterweight
Tyler Glasnow18 hours ago

Cubs Have Held Trade Talks On Tyler Glasnow
Marquise Brown18 hours ago

Still Not Practicing Thursday
Sean Brady18 hours ago

Looking To Rebound After First Career Loss
Deiveson Figueiredo18 hours ago

Moving Up To Bantamweight
Rob Font18 hours ago

Set For Third Fight Of 2023
Jaden Schwartz21 hours ago

Lands On Injured Reserve
Robby Fabbri21 hours ago

Tallies Two Points Against Rangers
Nick Martinez21 hours ago

Agrees To Two-Year Deal With Reds
Alexis Lafrenière21 hours ago

Alexis Lafreniere Delivers Two Assists
Jackson Chourio22 hours ago

Brewers Expected To Complete Record-Breaking Deal
Mike Matheson22 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Charlie Lindgren22 hours ago

Impresses With Win Over Kings
Shayne Gostisbehere22 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jalen Smith22 hours ago

Out On Thursday, Will Be Re-Evaluated Next Week
Joey Wendle1 day ago

Agrees With Mets
Devin Williams2 days ago

Wins NL Reliever Of The Year Award
Félix Bautista2 days ago

Felix Bautista Named AL Reliever Of The Year
Luis Severino2 days ago

Mets, Luis Severino Finalizing One-Year Deal
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Expected To Sign Before End Of Winter Meetings
Dylan Cease2 days ago

Trade Talks For Dylan Cease Have Intensified
Randy Arozarena2 days ago

Being Shopped By Rays
Bo Bichette2 days ago

Likely Staying Put
Emilio Pagán2 days ago

Emilio Pagan Agrees To Two-Year Pact With Reds
Dylan Cease2 days ago

Dodgers "Among Most Aggressive" Teams For Dylan Cease
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Yoshinobu Yamamoto "Above All Other Options" For Giants
Juan Soto2 days ago

"Almost Certain To Be Traded"
Cody Bellinger2 days ago

Earns NL Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Liam Hendriks2 days ago

Earns AL Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Jackson Chourio3 days ago

Brewers Discussing Deal With Top Prospect Jackson Chourio

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP