X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three First Basemen Who Will Outperform Their 2015 ADP

Bang For Your Draft Day Buck

First base is a treasure trove for bargain hunters this year with three players in particular standing out. All three struggled in 2014 and have seen their draft day stock plummet as a result. Ready for some 2015 fantasy baseball bounceback candidates? Let's begin with Mr. Second Breakfast himself...
 

Prince Fielder (Average ADP: 64.5)

Power is becoming increasingly hard to come by in the modern age. Only 27 players hit more than 25 home runs last year. Of them, only 11 hit more than 30. As you can see, this is hardly anything new:

Year 25+ Home Run Hitters 30+ Home Run Hitters
2012 44 27
2013 30 14
2014 27 11

 

Where does Prince Fielder fit in? Simply put, he's one of the very few players going outside of the first five rounds who I could project for more than 30 home runs without being an utter liability in the batting average department (think Chris Davis). Having shown the ability to reliably hit above the .275 threshold, the 30 home run version of Prince Fielder is head and shoulders above his fellow seventh rounders and a true value gem.

Of course, Fielder comes with risk. If he didn't, he wouldn't be a seventh round pick after all. Fielder's last two seasons have seen a marked drop off from his traditional production and durability. Why then all this optimism surrounding the lumbering first baseman? It begins with his new home park. Take a moment to compare how Arlington stacks up against Fielder's former home in Detroit:

2014 Left Handed Park Factors Texas Rangers Detroit Tigers
Home Runs 6th 15th
Singles 4th 3rd
Doubles 10th 30th

 

Arlington was built for a hitter like Fielder. Furthermore, as power declines throughout the league, it becomes easier and easier to take a risk on a player like him.

Is it even a risk? Fielder has only hit the disabled list once in his major league career, notably missing just one game between all of 2009 and 2013. Moreover, we've never really seen a 'bad' season from a healthy Prince Fielder. His last year in Detroit, the worst full season of his career, still resulted in a .274 batting average, 25 home runs, 106 RBI, 82 Runs scored, and even a novelty stolen base.

Altogether, Fielder pairs an arguably high floor with a much higher ceiling. Getting that in the seventh round? Sign me up any day.
 

Pedro Alvarez (Average ADP: 249.5)

Let's continue the “power is scarce” theme with my next value pick: Pedro Alvarez. In many ways 2014 was an odd year for the young Pirate. He posted some of the worst raw numbers of his short career, yet improved many of his key peripheral stats. Compared to the previous year, Alvarez cut his strikeout rate by almost 5%, upped his walk rate by over 2%, and cut his GB/FB rate for the second time in two years.

Could Alvarez hit 30 home runs again? Maybe. He certainly has the skill set to do it, having led the NL in home runs just two years ago. Considering how little the Pirates have behind him at first base (i.e. Corey Hart), he shouldn't want for at-bats.

Granted, his utter inability to hit for anything approaching a quality batting average will mean that not every team can afford to roster a player like Alvarez. For those who do have room for him, I would strongly advise a long hard look. The earliest I've seen Alvarez go in drafts is at CBS where he's averaging a late 19th round pick. On some sites, he's actually going undrafted. Given how hard it is to find power nowadays, Alvarez won't have to do much to justify a late round lottery ticket. A 30-32 home run season? That would certainly do it.
 

Joey Votto (Average ADP: 71.2)

There are few bounceback candidates I'm higher on for 2015 than Joey Votto. I don't need to tell you about what went wrong last season. The perennial All-Star watched his entire game sink to career lows as he battled through a left quadriceps strain which would end up costing him 100 games by season's end. All reports out of Reds camp so far this spring suggest that the injury is behind the former MVP.

"I'm really pleased with how he's moving around, how he looked in the cage, how he looked at first base,” shared manager Bryan Price to MLB.com. “He was throwing the ball well, looked spry. I was happy to see that for sure."

"I've been swinging, throwing," echoed Votto. "I'm taking ground balls and running. It feels like a big contrast to where I was during the season and at the end of the season."

Maybe that's just “best shape of his life” talk, but I do find it encouraging. Votto is among the most polished hitters in major league baseball and can be an utter force of nature when healthy. He'll be 31 years old next season and has played at least 150 games in three of the last five seasons. Prior to last year he was a career .314 hitter averaging roughly 22 home runs each year. If you miss out on Fielder in the seventh, I don't think you can do much better than Votto in the eighth.
 

Parting Thoughts

Feel like there's someone I missed? Considering how many players are out there on draft day, it's impossible to get to everybody, but if there's a first baseman you'd like to hear more about feel free hit me up on twitter @KBraver. I'm always happy to chat.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tetairoa McMillan

Signed By Panthers
Kris Bubic

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Bobby Witt Jr.

Posts Four-Hit Game
Jayden Higgins

Inks Rookie Deal
Ashton Jeanty

Secures Rookie Deal With Las Vegas
Colston Loveland

Chicago Signs First-Round Pick Colston Loveland
Stephen Curry

Unsure When He Can Return From Injury
De'Andre Hunter

Iffy For Friday
Evan Mobley

May Miss Another Game
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 3
Adin Hill

Looks To Return To Winning Ways Thursday
Johnathan Kovacevic

Won't Be Ready For Training Camp Following Surgery
Anthony Stolarz

Not Traveling With Maple Leafs For Game 3
Logan Stanley

Could Return To Action Friday
Josh Morrissey

Will Be A Game-Time Decision Friday
Alex Pietrangelo

A Game-Time Decision Thursday
Pavel Dorofeyev

Won't Play In Game 2
Hunter Greene

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Groin Strain
Victor Dimukeje

Dealing With Torn Pec
Quinn Ewers

Inks Rookie Deal With Dolphins
Nic Scourton

Panthers Expect Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen To Make Immediate Impact
Dax Milne

Dax Milne Let Go By Panthers
Cade Horton

Joining MLB Roster This Weekend
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Fire Derek Shelton
Tay Martin

Kyron Johnson Waived By Titans
Joe Bachie

Colts Sign Joe Bachie
Jonathon Brooks

Placed On PUP List, Out For 2025
Jadeveon Clowney

Panthers Release Jadeveon Clowney
Jordan Matthews

Panthers Release Jordan Matthews
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Held In Check Wednesday
Chet Holmgren

Logs Double-Double In Game 2 Win
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads Thunder To Blowout Win
Derrick White

Close To Another Double-Double In Game 2
Jaylen Brown

Struggles In Second Half Wednesday Night
Josh Hart

Leads All Scorers With 23 Points In Game 2 Against Celtics
Mikal Bridges

Makes Late Impact Again
Eetu Luostarinen

Stretches Point Streak To Four Games
Morgan Rielly

Registers Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Max Pacioretty

Extends Multi-Point Streak To Three Games
Travis Etienne Jr.

Jaguars Not Very High On Travis Etienne Jr.
Bhayshul Tuten

Could Make Impact In First Season
Mitchell Marner

Hits Game-Winner Wednesday Night
Arian Smith

Jets Expected To Use Arian Smith Early
Mark Scheifele

Returns With A Goal Wednesday
Jalen Ramsey

Rams Involved In Jalen Ramsey Trade Talks
Jake Oettinger

Collects Victory With 29 Saves
James Cook

Bills GM Expects James Cook To Be Ready
Mikko Rantanen

Nets Another Hat Trick Wednesday
Max Fried

Keeps Rolling With Seven Strong Innings On Wednesday
Framber Valdez

Shuts Down Brewers On Wednesday
Sonny Gray

Tosses Gem Against Pirates
Joe Ryan

Scratched From Thursday's Start With Illness
TJ Friedl

Blasts Two Home Runs
Wilyer Abreu

Launches Two Home Runs
Cam Skattebo

Giants Plan To Use Cam Skattebo As Rusher And Receiver
Dylan Cease

Dealing With Forearm Cramp
Karl-Anthony Towns

Turns It Around In Game 2
Jalen Brunson

Leads The Knicks To Another Win
Kristaps Porzingis

Logs Only 14 Minutes In Game 2
Jayson Tatum

Has Another Rough Shooting Night
Pat Bryant

Broncos Sign Rookie Third-Rounder Pat Bryant
J.J. McCarthy

Kevin O'Connell Non-Committal On Potential Competition For J.J. McCarthy
Dylan Cease

Makes Early Exit On Wednesday
J.T. Realmuto

Exits Early On Wednesday With Foot Injury
Juan Soto

Smacks Two Homers
Hunter Greene

Leaves Wednesday's Outing With Groin Injury
Kris Bryant

To Have Surgery On His Back
Rob Dillingham

Remains Out For Game 2 Against Warriors
Al Horford

Starts Game 2 Against Knicks
Giancarlo Stanton

Could Return In Late May
Sam Hauser

Out For Game 2 Against Knicks
Kristaps Porzingis

Available Wednesday
Stephen Curry

Ruled Out For At Least One Week
Mark Jankowski

To Be A Game-Time Call Thursday
Connor Hellebuyck

Puts Home Win Streak To Test Wednesday
William Contreras

Expected To Return On Friday
Miro Heiskanen

Continues To Sit Wednesday
Anthony Stolarz

Won't Play In Game 2
Mackie Samoskevich

Rejoins Panthers Lineup Wednesday
Aaron Ekblad

Set To Return Wednesday
Clayton Kershaw

Might Need Just One More Rehab Start
Teoscar Hernández

Dodgers Hopeful Teoscar Hernandez Will Return In Two Weeks
Will Zalatoris

Looking To Find Consistency Heading Into Philadelphia
Justin Rose

In Solid Form Ahead Of Truist Championship
Russell Henley

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At Truist Championship
Brian Harman

In Great Form Heading Into Philadelphia
Corey Conners

Red-Hot Heading Into Truist Championship
Daniel Berger

In Great Form Ahead Of Truist Championship
Sahith Theegala

Struggles Continue Ahead Of Truist Championship
Xander Schauffele

Eyeing Strong Finish At Truist Championship
Jaccob Slavin

Extends Point Streak With Overtime Winner
Collin Morikawa

Poised To Rebound At The Truist Championship
Tony Finau

Trying To Find Form In Philadelphia
Justin Thomas

Looking To Keep Winning Ways Going Art Truist Championship
Maverick McNealy

In Great Form Ahead Of Truist Championship
Michael Kim

Looking To Recapture Elite Form In Philadelphia
Rory McIlroy

The Headlining Favorite At Truist Championship
Ty Jerome

Struggles As Starter Tuesday
Tommy Fleetwood

Eyeing First Victory At Truist Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Looking To Stay Hot In Philadelphia
Andrew Novak

Looking To Keep Hot Stretch Of Play Going In Philadelphia
Shane Lowry

Still Having An Amazing Season Ahead Of Truist Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Trying For Top-10 Result In Philadelphia
Aaron Rai

Heads To Philadelphia Playing Well
Lucas Glover

Hot And Cold Heading To Truist Championship
Deiveson Figueiredo

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cory Sandhagen

Gets Back In The Win Column
Reinier de Ridder

Extends His Win Streak To Four
Bo Nickal

Suffers His First Loss At UFC Des Moines
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Suffers TKO Loss At UFC Des Moines
Daniel Rodriguez

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Marcos

Undefeated No More
Montel Jackson

Extends His Win Streak
Serhiy Sidey

Gets Decision Win At UFC Des Moines
Jeremy Stephens

Unsuccessful In His UFC Return
Mason Jones

Wins Decision At UFC Des Moines
Joey Logano

Steals The Victory At Texas On Sunday
Kyle Larson

Strong Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish At Texas
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Quietly Obtains A New Career-Best Finish At Texas
Josh Berry

Spins His Way To A Poor Result At Texas
Ross Chastain

Picks Up Second-Place Finish
Carson Hocevar

Bad Pit Strategy And Late-Race Crash Spoil Carson Hocevar's Top-10 Run
Erik Jones

Improbably Finishes Fifth Despite Speeding Penalty
Michael McDowell

Despite Crashing Out At Texas, Michael McDowell Surprisingly Fights For The Win
John Hunter Nemechek

Brilliant Pit Strategy Lifts John Hunter Nemechek To Eighth Place
Ryan Blaney

Frustrated After Fumbling Away Potential Win At Texas
Brad Keselowski

Woeful Season Continues With Wreck At Texas
Kyle Larson

Has One Of The Best Cars In The Field At Texas
William Byron

Will Be Tough To Beat At Texas
Chase Elliott

A Slam-Dunk DFS Pick At Texas
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric Legitimately Contend At Texas This Weekend?
Ryan Blaney

Is Worth Rostering For Texas DFS Lineups On Sunday
Joey Logano

Struggling To Find Speed At Texas
Tyler Reddick

Should Be Highly Considered For DFS At Texas This Week
Daniel Suarez

Has Been One Of The Best At Texas In Next Gen Car
Denny Hamlin

Might Have Another Quality Texas Start This Week
AJ Allmendinger

Has Shown Speed At Texas This Weekend
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF