NFL Free Agency Winners and Losers - Fantasy Football Outlooks from Florio

March 16, 2025

Free Agency shook up a lot in the NFL this week. What players changed teams and gained fantasy value? Who lost some? Florio breaks it all down.

Free Agency is the most fun week of the NFL offseason. Even when it is not the strongest class, there is never a shortage of excitement. Players changing teams at a rapid rate.

It is a week filled with hope that your favorite team will add stars and that those under-the-radar players you love will find an opportunity. Every fantasy football player loves free agency because we all wish we were the ones calling the shots!

When the dust settles, and the dopamine starts to wear off, you have to make sense of all the moves. There will always be players who gain fantasy value from free agency and those who lose. Let us take a look at players who hit the market this March and the fantasy impact it had!

2025 NFL Free Agency Fantasy Winners

Justin Fields is getting another chance to start, so he is a fantasy football winner. Really, that is all he needs. He is one of three QBs in NFL history to have a 1,000-yard rushing season (Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick). Since 2022, he leads all QBs in rushing touchdowns on outside zone runs and only Jackson has more rushing yards in that span.

The Jets ran the fifth most outside runs last year and new OC Tanner Engstrand comes from Detroit, who was sixth. Fields is just a couple of years removed from averaging 20 fantasy PPG, which he did in his final four starts with the Steelers as well. He is a fantasy QB1 due to his legs.

People will worry about his effect on the other Jets stars, but a running QB tends to open up running lanes for backs. He and Breece Hall are a very scary duo on the option. Plus, Fields dumped off at a very high rate last year. As for Garrett Wilson, the duo has chemistry dating back to their Ohio State days.

Plus, DJ Moore’s career year came with Fields. Lastly, Wilson has never been a WR1 in fantasy PPG, so his getting drafted as a WR2, which is what I expect now, is appropriate value.

Should you draft Justin Fields to your @NFLFantasy roster next season? @MichaelFFlorio believes he’s going to be a solid QB1 choice. 👀 pic.twitter.com/PStRlmVz4B

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) March 11, 2025

Geno Smith was traded and not technically a free agent, but I am including him anyway. His fantasy value probably doesn’t change too much in Vegas. I still value him as a safe floor, low-end QB2, who can be streamed in the right matchups.

So why is he a winner? He is going to reunite with Pete Carroll, on a team that clearly covets him and is set to give him a raise. He will have a longer leash in Vegas than he likely would have in Seattle.

Plus, his new OC is Chip Kelly, who has been in charge of an NFL offense four times. Twice, those offenses finished in the top 10 in passing attempts. Three times they finished top 12 in passing yards. He has the best young TE in the game now at his disposal.

Hopefully, the Raiders add some more weapons in the draft, but knowing how committed the Raiders are to having him be their starting QB adds security for him in both redraft and, specifically, dynasty formats.

Najee Harris was the biggest named back on the market and he is the biggest fantasy RB winner of free agency. We have known for a while who Najee Harris is. He is a durable back who has never missed a game.

He is a physical runner and can handle a ton of volume, but he is not the most explosive or elusive. His skillset on the Steelers the last couple of years has led to him being an RB2/3 for fantasy purposes. That should change on the Chargers.

Comparing RB 2024

- Najee Harris: 263 carries, 1,043 yds, 6 TD, 4.0 YPC, -3 rush yd over expectation, 23% missed tackles forced, 11% explosive runs, 10% 15+ MPH

- JK Dobbins: 195 carries, 905 yds, 9 TD, 4.6 YPC, 115 rush yd over expectation, 26% MTF, 14% explosive, 14% 15+ MPH

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 11, 2025

The Chargers are a better offense, which should naturally lead to more scoring chances for Harris. Plus, they are a run-heavy offense, so there should be plenty of weekly volume going his way. Their offensive line created more yards before contact for backs than Pittsburgh’ did and we know Harris can pick up yards after contact.

Plus, I expect we see him more utilized in the passing game than we did J.K. Dobbins last year. Harris should be valued as an RB2, but there will be plenty of weeks he finishes as an RB1 due to touchdowns. He could be a low-end RB1 in total scoring come year's end as well.

Javonte Williams is a winner because he freed himself of Sean Payton’s inconsistent RB usage. He also ended up on a Cowboys team that is in desperate need of an RB. His fantasy value will be tied to what the Cowboys do in the draft, but at the very least Williams could be a complimentary piece who contributes in the passing game.

He had 70 targets and 52 catches last season. He could be a PPR flex option if he gets a passing down role, but theres upside for him to potentially see more work.

Davante Adams went to arguably the best landing spot he possibly could have with the Rams. Matthew Stafford is a QB upgrade, especially for fantasy purposes since he locks in on receivers. Sean McVay is a playcaller and system upgrade for Adams.

Now, some of you may be thinking Adams is a little long in the tooth. You’re not wrong, but Adams was one of eight receivers to average over 17 fantasy PPG last season, so he is still playing at a high level.

Plus, he made a tangible change last year, running about half his routes from the slot. He has entered his Larry Fitzgerald era. That also happens to be exactly how Cooper Kupp was used by the Rams last year.

Adams is just playing at a higher level than Kupp is nowadays. With Puka Nacua as the one and Stafford as his QB, I believe Adams can still return WR2 fantasy numbers as the primary slot option who bounces out wide at times for the Rams.

Over the last 3 years Matthew Stafford threw 31% of his passes to the slot https://t.co/AQ9xEakcwd

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 9, 2025

This move keeps Matthew Stafford as a rock-solid QB2 with a very safe floor and a chance to finish any week as a QB1. Puka Nacua is no longer my second-ranked WR, but he remains in the top 10 and should still go in the back of the first rounds in fantasy drafts.

Christian Kirk has been hampered by injuries the last two years, but he has been effective when on the field. He now gets to bounce between lining up in the slot or as the Z opposite of Nico Collins.

He gets a QB upgrade and should bring a safe floor with some spike weeks mixed in. Plus, if anything happened to Collins, he would be the top target. I expect he goes off draft boards as a WR4, but he can exceed that value.

Marquise Brown staying with the Chiefs was his best landing spot. I was excited to see what Brown could do with Patrick Mahomes, but he was taken from us before it even began. Still, with Brown, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs have created a speedy offense. It is possible we see Mahomes reach his elite fantasy status again with an offense like that.

Joshua Palmer struggled to create consistent fantasy value with Los Angeles, so I do question if that will be different in Buffalo. He does get a QB upgrade and is the best out wide separator on the team.

He also was more effective than any Bills receiver in 2024 on intermediate and deep targets. That sort of weapon not only helps Josh Allen, but it opens up space underneath for Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. As of now, I rank the Bills receivers Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Palmer. He is a good best ball pick.

Evan Engram lands in a good spot in Denver with Bo Nix. The Broncos did not have a clear-cut number two target behind Courtland Sutton and Engram could fill that void as a possession receiver. That would help his value a lot in PPR leagues. He will likely settle in fantasy drafts in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 range.

2025 NFL Free Agency Fantasy Losers

Sam Darnold offers a younger, cheaper option for Seattle at QB, but it may be a downgrade for both sides of this pairing. No offense to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is a great receiver, but going from Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson to JSN, Cooper Kupp, MVS, and Noah Fant is a downgrade.

Darnold also leaves Kevin O’Connell’s very fantasy-friendly passing attack. Plus, the Seahawks have offensive line questions. Darnold flashed as a QB1 for stretches in 2024 but here he is more of a safe-floor QB2 that can be streamed in favorable spots.

JSN showed us he can play at a very high level finishing as a top 10 fantasy receiver. He should see plenty of volume now as the top target for Seattle. Still, with the potential downgrade at QB. The signing of Kupp also impacts him.

Last season, Smith-Njigba played 74 percent of his snaps from the slot, while Kupp was at 50 percent. At this point in Kupp's career, he profiles as a player better used from the slot. That could push JSN out wide, which he has the capability to do, but adds a bit of risk and volatility to him. He is a WR2 for fantasy purposes.

Cooper Kupp is a loser for me here, though, as well. First, this is a QB and playcaller downgrade. He also is likely to have to bounce out wide a bit more than you would like cause JSN is not giving up the slot fully. More than anything, I think Kupp is getting to an age where he is more of a low-end WR3 or flex option, but fantasy players may see his name and expect more. Do not fall for that trap.

J.K. Dobbins is still searching for a home, but it is hard to believe at this point he will fall into a situation as good as last year. Not only was he the lead back on a run-first Chargers team, but there was never a real threat to steal touches away.

Najee Harris is going to see a ton of volume in Los Angeles now. Plus, there is a very deep RB draft class about a month away from entering the league. Dobbins could still be fantasy viable, but last year being his career year seems more and more likely.

DK Metcalf is still waiting to find out who his QB is, but at this point, I feel comfortable saying it will be a downgrade from Geno Smith in 2024. Metcalf and George Pickens make a very tough to guard real life duo, but for fantasy, it could be a headache.

Both ran 80-plus percent of their routes out wide last season. Both averaged over 13 air yards per target and over a quarter of each’s targets were deep. The usage is the reason each was volatile week to week in fantasy.

Now they have to compete with one another for those deep targets. There will be some big weeks for each and there will be down ones. I imagine it will be very up-and-down week to week for both of these receivers. There is a reason Metcalf has finished as a top 20 WR in fantasy PPG just once in his career. Yet, he will still demand a WR2 price on draft day.

The Steelers have a new WR duo in DK Metcalf and George Pickens 😤

But who's gonna be throwing them the ball? 🤔@MichaelFFlorio | @MarcasG | @RealDealFantasy pic.twitter.com/a1Nu851zmV

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) March 13, 2025

DeAndre Hopkins is more name than fantasy asset at this point in his career. He has had declining metrics for a couple years now and struggled last season to stand out on a receiver-needy Chiefs team. Kansas City even tried moving him to the slot at times but that failed to lead to consistent results.

He is a big name, paired with an elite QB, so fantasy players may get excited. I believe though he is merely a contributor, locker room leader and valuable depth to the Ravens at this point. For fantasy, give me Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and the tight ends over him.

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.

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