X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

First Basemen Set to Outperform Their ADP - Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets

Josh Naylor

When you want power and run production in fantasy baseball, first base is often a great place to look. As in most years, this year offers many elite options at the top, and a lot of question marks after the first tier. That applies to all 2024 fantasy baseball drafts I have done since early February.

In the first five rounds of drafts, players like Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, and Paul Goldschmidt all offer a safe floor and possibility for elite upside. Paul Goldschmidt is presently the most valuable option of the top tier with an average draft position (ADP) around pick 61. After Goldschmidt, however, that floor starts to get a little shaky.

Plenty of first basemen will be drafted after the first five rounds of 2024 fantasy baseball drafts, but which ones will deliver the best value? This article will feature three first basemen who are set to outperform their ADP in a big way in 2024.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians

Average ADP: 127.2

Fantasy managers certainly want some element of power with their first base pick when they leave a draft. You don't want to walk away with LaMonte Wade Jr. as your only play at the position. Josh Naylor is going to get home runs this year, and he is projected for more than 20 by ATC for 2024. That would be a bump up from his 17 last season (in only 121 games), and satisfy some of the power requirements of the position.

However, when fantasy managers can also get stolen base upside out of their first baseman, it's like finding hidden treasure in the draft, especially after pick 125. The 2024 ATC projections only predict four first baseman will reach at least 20 home runs, 80 RBI, and eight steals: Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman.....and Josh Naylor.

Some might say his .308 batting average last year was fluky. However, Naylor's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was a reasonable .326 and his average was supported by an expected batting average of .293, according to Statcast. Naylor is a player going way too cheap in rotisserie-format drafts for his contributions in both home runs and steals. If he ends up with another 10 bags as he did in 2023, Naylor could be one of the rare 20/10 players at first this season. 

 

Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays

Average ADP: 158.6

About 30 picks after Josh Naylor goes off the board in most drafts, you'll find a player who won't be nearly as safe in batting average but is a dark horse candidate to hit 35 or more home runs in 2024. Paredes, who also qualifies at third base (a plus for fantasy), has some of the most prolific power in the major leagues, and he has learned how to pull the ball to left field to ensure a large percentage of his fly balls end up over the fence.

In 143 games in 2023, Paredes hit 31 homers and drove in 98 runs while still just 24 years old. With some growth and strength development over the last year, it's possible he could fly past those numbers even if his batting average from last year (.250) regresses to more in line with his expected batting average (.293).

Paredes is one of the rare players in the Tampa Bay lineup who does not seem like he will be impacted by a platoon split, and his spot right in the middle of the order is secure. If power is what you need after about pick 150 in drafts, Paredes is likely the best source there is.

 

Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers

Average ADP: 188.8

When former Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins hit the free-agent market, the worry was whether or not the right-handed Hoskins would find a home park as conducive to home runs as Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. After missing all of last season with a torn ACL, Hoskins needed things to fall his way with his new team in 2024. It's safe to say he has found a park that should aid his power quite well with his new team.

Hoskins signed a two-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers in the offseason and immediately joined a roster where he can play the role of thumper in the middle of the order. According to Baseball Savant, American Family Field in Milwaukee was ninth in home run Park Factor to right-handed batters over the last three seasons, almost identical to Citizens Bank Park.

In fact, if you put all of Hoskins' home fly balls from 2017 to 2022 into American Family Field, he would have had 162 home runs instead of 154. Slated to hit in this great park right behind on-base machines like Christian Yelich and William Contreras, this has the potential to be Rhys Hoskins' best year of his career. Fantasy managers may only have to spend a 16th-round pick to acquire those services.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mitch Garver15 mins ago

Goes Hitless In Return To Cactus League Action
Austin Riley21 mins ago

Doubles In Return To Lineup On Saturday
Jordan Mason31 mins ago

Vikings Acquire Jordan Mason From 49ers, Sign Him To Two-Year Deal
RJ Barrett2 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Sunday
Immanuel Quickley2 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday
Jerami Grant2 hours ago

Unlikely To Play On Sunday
Marcus Smart2 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Anfernee Simons2 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Sunday
Christian Braun3 hours ago

Available On Saturday
Aaron Gordon3 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Jamal Murray3 hours ago

Will Play On Saturday Night
Nikola Jokić3 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Cleared To Suit Up Versus The Wizards
Colby Thomas4 hours ago

Sustains Injury On Saturday
Dee Eskridge4 hours ago

Sticking With Dolphins
Josh Giddey4 hours ago

Officially Out On Saturday Night
Ja Morant4 hours ago

Ruled Out On Saturday Night
JuJu Smith-Schuster4 hours ago

Returning To Chiefs
Josh Rojas4 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Tennessee Titans4 hours ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Thairo Estrada4 hours ago

Removed From Saturday's Contest
Damian Lillard4 hours ago

Available Versus Indiana
Parris Campbell4 hours ago

Headed To Dallas
Nick Kurtz4 hours ago

Exits After Hit-By-Pitch
Giannis Antetokounmpo4 hours ago

Good To Go On Saturday
Jamal Murray4 hours ago

Added To Saturday's Injury Report
Jiri Kulich4 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tobias Myers4 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Brice Turang5 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Fatigue
Tyler Myers5 hours ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Nikita Kucherov5 hours ago

Good To Go Against Bruins
Yegor Chinakhov5 hours ago

Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Saturday
Cole Anthony5 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Joel Armia5 hours ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Brady Tkachuk5 hours ago

Available Saturday
Donovan Mitchell5 hours ago

Questionable Against Orlando
Adam Fox5 hours ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Andre Drummond5 hours ago

Out Against Dallas
Ja Morant5 hours ago

Questionable On Saturday Night
P.J. Washington6 hours ago

Returning On Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles8 hours ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Dante Exum8 hours ago

Diagnosed With A Fractured Left Hand
Los Angeles Rams9 hours ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Amed Rosario9 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Cam Thomas9 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Jose Trevino9 hours ago

Going For CT Scan
Kirk Cousins9 hours ago

Set To Receive Roster Bonus
Bryce Eldridge9 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers9 hours ago

Wants To Play In Minnesota
Blake Perkins9 hours ago

Cleared For Light Baseball Activities
Doug Nikhazy9 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jung Hoo Lee9 hours ago

Scratched On Saturday With Back Tightness
Cody Bradford9 hours ago

Won't Throw For At Least Four Weeks
Colorado Rockies10 hours ago

Charlie Condon Out At Least Six Weeks With Broken Wrist
Bryce Miller10 hours ago

Ironing Out The Kinks In Spring Training
Logan Gilbert10 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Mookie Betts10 hours ago

Missing Tokyo Exhibition Games Due To Illness
Jesús Sánchez10 hours ago

Jesus Sanchez To Miss Four Weeks With Oblique Strain
Jon Gray10 hours ago

Has A Fractured Right Wrist
Washington Commanders10 hours ago

Clelin Ferrell Returning To Washington
New York Jets11 hours ago

Kris Boyd Signs With The Jets
Los Angeles Chargers11 hours ago

Mekhi Becton Inks Deal With Chargers
Tyler Johnson11 hours ago

Links Up With Jets
Kyle Juszczyk12 hours ago

Returns To 49ers
Eeli Tolvanen16 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
WPG16 hours ago

Kyle Connor Strikes Twice On Friday
Jack Roslovic16 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Friday's Victory
Leon Draisaitl16 hours ago

Leads Edmonton To Victory
Liam O'Brien16 hours ago

Exits With Undisclosed Injury
Josh Manson16 hours ago

Exits On Friday
Atlanta Falcons1 day ago

Falcons Agree To Terms With Morgan Fox
Indianapolis Colts1 day ago

Colts Sign Corey Ballentine To One-Year Deal On Friday
Pittsburgh Steelers1 day ago

Brandin Echols Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Kenny Yeboah1 day ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Avery Williams1 day ago

Signs With Eagles
Kene Nwangwu1 day ago

Jets Re-Sign Kene Nwangwu To One-Year Deal
Simi Fehoko1 day ago

Signing With Cardinals
Karel Vejmelka1 day ago

Makes Ninth Consecutive Start Friday
Dustin Wolf1 day ago

Set To Face Avalanche Friday
Mikael Backlund1 day ago

Out Week-To-Week
Sam Colangelo1 day ago

Deemed Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Michael Bunting1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Andrei Svechnikov1 day ago

Expected To Return Next Week
Nikolaj Ehlers1 day ago

Good To Go Against Stars
Mackenzie Blackwood1 day ago

Battling Illness, Not Starting On Friday
Roman Dolidze2 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani2 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos2 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez2 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson2 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay2 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA2 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos2 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman4 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips4 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith4 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick4 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler4 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter4 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre4 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young4 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim4 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas4 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy4 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA4 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman4 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee4 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Power-Steering Failure Foils Tyler Reddick's Bid For Potential Victory
William Byron5 days ago

Recovers From Being Trapped A Lap Down To Finish Sixth
Josh Berry5 days ago

Gives Wood Brothers Team Best Run Since 2021
Alex Pereira6 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 313
Magomed Ankalaev6 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion
Justin Gaethje6 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Rafael Fiziev6 days ago

Loses Third Fight In A Row
Ignacio Bahamondes6 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 313
Christopher Bell6 days ago

Scores His Third Consecutive Victory Of The Season At Phoenix
Kyle Larson6 days ago

Strong Phoenix Performance Falls Short Of Victory
Chris Buescher6 days ago

Quietly Earns A Top-Five Finish At Phoenix
Alex Bowman6 days ago

Leaves Phoenix With His Best Finish At The Site Since 2016
Zane Smith6 days ago

Quietly Nabs His First Phoenix Top-10 Finish
Jalin Turner6 days ago

Retires After UFC 313 Loss
Iasmin Lucindo6 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 313
Amanda Lemos6 days ago

Dominates At UFC 313
King Green6 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC 313
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF