First Basemen Set to Outperform Their ADP - Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets

March 20, 2024

Ryan Kirksey lists three fantasy baseball first basemen who will outperform their current ADP. These first basemen are draft day values at their current fantasy ADP and should be picked up or drafted for fantasy baseball leagues.

When you want power and run production in fantasy baseball, first base is often a great place to look. As in most years, this year offers many elite options at the top, and a lot of question marks after the first tier. That applies to all 2024 fantasy baseball drafts I have done since early February.

In the first five rounds of drafts, players like Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, and Paul Goldschmidt all offer a safe floor and possibility for elite upside. Paul Goldschmidt is presently the most valuable option of the top tier with an average draft position (ADP) around pick 61. After Goldschmidt, however, that floor starts to get a little shaky.

Plenty of first basemen will be drafted after the first five rounds of 2024 fantasy baseball drafts, but which ones will deliver the best value? This article will feature three first basemen who are set to outperform their ADP in a big way in 2024.

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians

Average ADP: 127.2

Fantasy managers certainly want some element of power with their first base pick when they leave a draft. You don't want to walk away with LaMonte Wade Jr. as your only play at the position. Josh Naylor is going to get home runs this year, and he is projected for more than 20 by ATC for 2024. That would be a bump up from his 17 last season (in only 121 games), and satisfy some of the power requirements of the position.

However, when fantasy managers can also get stolen base upside out of their first baseman, it's like finding hidden treasure in the draft, especially after pick 125. The 2024 ATC projections only predict four first baseman will reach at least 20 home runs, 80 RBI, and eight steals: Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman.....and Josh Naylor.

Josh Naylor has had a go-ahead home run in the 8th inning in THREE STRAIGHT GAMES.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/Mfrb0ryYqR

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) May 14, 2023

Some might say his .308 batting average last year was fluky. However, Naylor's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was a reasonable .326 and his average was supported by an expected batting average of .293, according to Statcast. Naylor is a player going way too cheap in rotisserie-format drafts for his contributions in both home runs and steals. If he ends up with another 10 bags as he did in 2023, Naylor could be one of the rare 20/10 players at first this season. 

Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays

Average ADP: 158.6

About 30 picks after Josh Naylor goes off the board in most drafts, you'll find a player who won't be nearly as safe in batting average but is a dark horse candidate to hit 35 or more home runs in 2024. Paredes, who also qualifies at third base (a plus for fantasy), has some of the most prolific power in the major leagues, and he has learned how to pull the ball to left field to ensure a large percentage of his fly balls end up over the fence.

In 143 games in 2023, Paredes hit 31 homers and drove in 98 runs while still just 24 years old. With some growth and strength development over the last year, it's possible he could fly past those numbers even if his batting average from last year (.250) regresses to more in line with his expected batting average (.293).

Paredes is one of the rare players in the Tampa Bay lineup who does not seem like he will be impacted by a platoon split, and his spot right in the middle of the order is secure. If power is what you need after about pick 150 in drafts, Paredes is likely the best source there is.

Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers

Average ADP: 188.8

When former Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins hit the free-agent market, the worry was whether or not the right-handed Hoskins would find a home park as conducive to home runs as Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. After missing all of last season with a torn ACL, Hoskins needed things to fall his way with his new team in 2024. It's safe to say he has found a park that should aid his power quite well with his new team.

Spring training GRAND SLAM for Rhys Hoskins pic.twitter.com/WaoJa9gpF1

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 8, 2024

Hoskins signed a two-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers in the offseason and immediately joined a roster where he can play the role of thumper in the middle of the order. According to Baseball Savant, American Family Field in Milwaukee was ninth in home run Park Factor to right-handed batters over the last three seasons, almost identical to Citizens Bank Park.

In fact, if you put all of Hoskins' home fly balls from 2017 to 2022 into American Family Field, he would have had 162 home runs instead of 154. Slated to hit in this great park right behind on-base machines like Christian Yelich and William Contreras, this has the potential to be Rhys Hoskins' best year of his career. Fantasy managers may only have to spend a 16th-round pick to acquire those services.

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