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Thursday NFL Matchup Analysis: Chiefs @ Patriots

Football season is finally back, bringing a whole new breath of excitement into Sundays, Mondays, and of course Thursdays! On the fantasy football side of things, it can also mean stressing about whether to put certain players in your lineup for the Thursday Night Football matchup over later games on the weekend.

My goal with this series is to help provide some clarity on the Thursday night NFL games during the regular season and use that information to inform owners of fantasy gold-mines and pitfalls when it comes to lineup decisions. There will be three categories that a player could be placed into: must start, must avoid, and sleeper. If a player is not listed, that just means I don't have a strong enough opinion of them to put into one of the clear-cut categories.

This week, I will be taking a look at the season opener when the Kansas City Chiefs head to Foxborough, Massachusetts to take on the defending Super Bowl champion-New England Patriots.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots

Date and Start Time: Thursday, September 7 at 8:30 p.m. EST

Notable Injuries and Status:

Offensive and Defensive Rankings (2016):

Chiefs Patriots
Passing Yards 19th 4th
Rushing Yards 15th 7th
Pass Defense 18th 12th
Run Defense 26th 3rd

 


Must Starts

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Despite being limited in practice by a calf injury on Tuesday, all signs point to Kelce starting on Thursday night. With the passing offense flowing through him and Tyreek Hill, it’s all but guaranteed that Kelce will get a consistent workload and be targeted as a reliable chain-mover.

Tom Brady (QB, NE)

Even if I told you that Brady was in store for the toughest matchup of all time, there would be no way you would be sitting him for Week 1. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP is 4-2 all-time against the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season, tilting to an even more favorable 3-0 in matchups at Foxborough. Although Eric Berry and Marcus Peters will find a way to disrupt passing plays, Brady will have plenty of matchups to exploit with the plethora of different skill position players at his disposal and should produce a stat-line in the ballpark of 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)

Gronkowski is easily the best tight end in professional football when healthy and will get plenty of looks Week 1. As a mismatch nightmare at any spot on the field, ‘Gronk’ will easily be able to out-run the likes of Derrick Johnson and Ramik Wilson who aren’t particularly adept in coverage despite being prudent tacklers. Start him with confidence.

 

Must Avoids

Chris Conley (WR, KC)

New England’s cornerback tandem in Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore is one of the best in the NFL, meaning it becomes even harder to trust Conley as the third man up in the receiving pecking order. He and Albert Wilson will likely split the No. 3 wide receiver targets, but expect very little from either as far as generating fantasy relevant yardage or touchdowns.

Mike Gillislee / Rex Burkhead (RBs, NE)

Assuming you have other starting options at the running back position, Week 1 should pose as the litmus test for how the Patriots’ backfield shapes up rather than a must start scenario for Gillislee or Burkhead. Gillislee experienced a large setback when he suffered a hamstring injury in August and Burkhead just returned back to practice after dealing with an undisclosed injury. With it being unclear how both will carve out a role in the offense, it’s best to stay away from this backfield entirely in a game against a tough Kansas City run defense that has returned to full health after an injury-riddled 2016.

Other Notable Must Avoids: Charcandrick West (RB, KC), Malcolm Mitchell (WR, NE)

 

Sleeper Picks

Kareem Hunt (RB, KC)

I have a tough time giving a must start designation to an unproven rookie going up against a New England defense that ranked third in the NFL against the run in 2016 and hasn’t experienced any huge losses to their front-seven. At the same time, now that an injury to Spencer Ware has given Hunt the keys to the starting job and virtually locked him in as the team’s feature back. Despite the occasional spell from Tyreek Hill or Charcandrick West, Hunt is a solid, dual-threat RB2 that is virtually guaranteed a monopoly on the running back carries.

Chris Hogan (WR, NE)

With Brandin Cooks likely drawing attention from the Chiefs’ top corner in Marcus Peters, Hogan is to be shadowed by the team’s No. 2 cornerback Phillip Gaines. Gaines ranks as the 108th best corner by Pro Football Focus heading into 2017 and should be no match for Hogan’s size-speed combination. The only question mark will be his usage given how Brady likes to spread the ball around, but it seems pretty clear that he will get some form of action given how blatant this particular positional matchup favors Hogan.

Other Notable Sleeper Picks: James White (RB, NE)

 

More Week 1 Lineup Prep




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jahmyr Gibbs

Scores Three Times on Thursday Night Football
Josh Jacobs

Remains Limited with Knee Injury
CeeDee Lamb

Suffers Concussion in Week 14 Against Detroit
Jhostynxon Garcia

Pirates Acquire Jhostynxon Garcia From Red Sox
Draymond Green

Won't Return on Thursday Night
Kenneth Walker III

Remains Limited on Thursday
Kyren Williams

Limited Again with Ankle Injury
Davante Adams

Limited in Practice on Thursday
Cody Bellinger

Yankees Pushing Hard to Re-Sign Cody Bellinger
CFB

Penn State Eyeing Iowa State Coach Matt Campbell For Coaching Vacancy
Alex Bregman

Cubs Have Renewed Interest in Alex Bregman
Quinten Post

Set to Suit Up Versus Philadelphia
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Will Play on Thursday Night
Joel Embiid

Back on Thursday Night
Al Horford

Available on Thursday
Jonathan Kuminga

Cleared for Action on Thursday Night
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Out of Action Thursday
Terance Mann

Available Versus Utah
Kirill Marchenko

Returns From Four-Game Absence
De'Anthony Melton

to be Capped at 20 Minutes on Thursday
Carter Verhaeghe

Ready to Return Thursday
Scott Wedgewood

Skips Thursday's Game
Paolo Banchero

Upgraded to Questionable for Friday Night
Danila Yurov

Misses Second Straight Game
CFB

Billy Napier Finalizing Deal to Become James Madison's New Head Coach
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Unavailable Thursday
CFB

Buster Faulkner Set to Become Florida's New Offensive Coordinator
Dereck Lively II

to Seek "Multiple Opinions" on Right Foot Treatment
David Pastrnak

Still Out Thursday
Ryan McDonagh

Lightning Sign Ryan McDonagh to Three-Year Extension
Trayce Jackson-Davis

Set to Suit Up Thursday
Ja Morant

Considered Day-to-Day
Tee Higgins

Ready to Return After Full Practice?
Jimmy Butler III

Sidelined Thursday
Jayden Daniels

Practices in Full on Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Ruled Out Thursday Against the Wizards
Lamar Jackson

Expected to Play Against Steelers
Quentin Grimes

Is Ready to Return on Thursday
Deshaun Watson

Not Expected to Play This Year
Paul George

Will Not Play Against the Warriors
Joel Embiid

Upgraded to Questionable for Thursday
CFB

Joe Sloan Expected to be Kentucky's New Offensive Coordinator
Justin Herbert

Chargers "Really Optimistic" That Justin Herbert Will Play on Monday
Michael Porter Jr.

Will Not Play Thursday
CFB

Lane Kiffin Working to Keep Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker at LSU
Noa Essengue

Out for the Season
Mike Evans

has "Real Chance" to Return in Week 14
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected To Miss 2-4 Weeks
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Realistic Expectation is for Amon-Ra St. Brown to Return Next Week
Jalen Carter

Won't Play in Week 14 After Having Shoulder Surgeries
Justin Herbert

Expected to Practice Either Thursday or Friday
Mike Evans

Practicing Again Thursday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Questionable With Rib Contusion
CFB

Brian Daboll a Candidate for Penn State Head-Coaching Job?
Karel Vejmelka

Records Impressive Shutout
JJ Peterka

Rocks Ducks With Four-Point Effort
Cole Caufield

Extends Point Streak With Power-Play Assist
Matvei Michkov

Delivers Two Assists Wednesday
Jake Oettinger

Grabs Fourth Consecutive Victory With Shutout
Ryan Leonard

Tallies Four Points in Wednesday's Win
Cam York

Exits Win Early
Kyren Williams

Expected to Play in Week 14
Davante Adams

Expected to Play Despite Missing Wednesday's Practice
Kyle Tucker

Visits With Blue Jays
Woody Marks

Texans Say Woody Marks Will be Fine
Rasmus Ristolainen

to Miss at Least One More Week
Drew Doughty

Logs Full Practice Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Reds Bring Back Closer Emilio Pagan on Two-Year Deal
Jeff Skinner

Remains Sidelined Wednesday
Petr Mrazek

Out 2-3 Weeks
Tyler Seguin

Likely Done for the Season
Neal Pionk

Returns to Jets Lineup
J.J. McCarthy

Practices in Full, on Track to Return in Week 14
Cedric Mullins

Rays Agree on One-Year Deal
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Considering Trading Freddy Peralta
Kyle Schwarber

Reds Serious About Adding Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency?
CFB

Brent Key Signing Five-Year Deal to Remain at Georgia Tech
CFB

Brian Hartline Expected to Land USF Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Collin Klein Expected to be Top Target for Kansas State if Head-Coach Job Opens
CFB

Chris Klieman Considering Stepping Down at Kansas State
Alexander Wennberg

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
CFB

Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles

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