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Thursday NFL Matchup Analysis: Chiefs @ Patriots

Football season is finally back, bringing a whole new breath of excitement into Sundays, Mondays, and of course Thursdays! On the fantasy football side of things, it can also mean stressing about whether to put certain players in your lineup for the Thursday Night Football matchup over later games on the weekend.

My goal with this series is to help provide some clarity on the Thursday night NFL games during the regular season and use that information to inform owners of fantasy gold-mines and pitfalls when it comes to lineup decisions. There will be three categories that a player could be placed into: must start, must avoid, and sleeper. If a player is not listed, that just means I don't have a strong enough opinion of them to put into one of the clear-cut categories.

This week, I will be taking a look at the season opener when the Kansas City Chiefs head to Foxborough, Massachusetts to take on the defending Super Bowl champion-New England Patriots.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots

Date and Start Time: Thursday, September 7 at 8:30 p.m. EST

Notable Injuries and Status:

Offensive and Defensive Rankings (2016):

Chiefs Patriots
Passing Yards 19th 4th
Rushing Yards 15th 7th
Pass Defense 18th 12th
Run Defense 26th 3rd

 


Must Starts

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Despite being limited in practice by a calf injury on Tuesday, all signs point to Kelce starting on Thursday night. With the passing offense flowing through him and Tyreek Hill, it’s all but guaranteed that Kelce will get a consistent workload and be targeted as a reliable chain-mover.

Tom Brady (QB, NE)

Even if I told you that Brady was in store for the toughest matchup of all time, there would be no way you would be sitting him for Week 1. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP is 4-2 all-time against the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season, tilting to an even more favorable 3-0 in matchups at Foxborough. Although Eric Berry and Marcus Peters will find a way to disrupt passing plays, Brady will have plenty of matchups to exploit with the plethora of different skill position players at his disposal and should produce a stat-line in the ballpark of 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)

Gronkowski is easily the best tight end in professional football when healthy and will get plenty of looks Week 1. As a mismatch nightmare at any spot on the field, ‘Gronk’ will easily be able to out-run the likes of Derrick Johnson and Ramik Wilson who aren’t particularly adept in coverage despite being prudent tacklers. Start him with confidence.

 

Must Avoids

Chris Conley (WR, KC)

New England’s cornerback tandem in Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore is one of the best in the NFL, meaning it becomes even harder to trust Conley as the third man up in the receiving pecking order. He and Albert Wilson will likely split the No. 3 wide receiver targets, but expect very little from either as far as generating fantasy relevant yardage or touchdowns.

Mike Gillislee / Rex Burkhead (RBs, NE)

Assuming you have other starting options at the running back position, Week 1 should pose as the litmus test for how the Patriots’ backfield shapes up rather than a must start scenario for Gillislee or Burkhead. Gillislee experienced a large setback when he suffered a hamstring injury in August and Burkhead just returned back to practice after dealing with an undisclosed injury. With it being unclear how both will carve out a role in the offense, it’s best to stay away from this backfield entirely in a game against a tough Kansas City run defense that has returned to full health after an injury-riddled 2016.

Other Notable Must Avoids: Charcandrick West (RB, KC), Malcolm Mitchell (WR, NE)

 

Sleeper Picks

Kareem Hunt (RB, KC)

I have a tough time giving a must start designation to an unproven rookie going up against a New England defense that ranked third in the NFL against the run in 2016 and hasn’t experienced any huge losses to their front-seven. At the same time, now that an injury to Spencer Ware has given Hunt the keys to the starting job and virtually locked him in as the team’s feature back. Despite the occasional spell from Tyreek Hill or Charcandrick West, Hunt is a solid, dual-threat RB2 that is virtually guaranteed a monopoly on the running back carries.

Chris Hogan (WR, NE)

With Brandin Cooks likely drawing attention from the Chiefs’ top corner in Marcus Peters, Hogan is to be shadowed by the team’s No. 2 cornerback Phillip Gaines. Gaines ranks as the 108th best corner by Pro Football Focus heading into 2017 and should be no match for Hogan’s size-speed combination. The only question mark will be his usage given how Brady likes to spread the ball around, but it seems pretty clear that he will get some form of action given how blatant this particular positional matchup favors Hogan.

Other Notable Sleeper Picks: James White (RB, NE)

 

More Week 1 Lineup Prep




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Drake Maye

Throws for Career-High Five Touchdowns in New York
T.J. Watt

Expected to Play Against Ravens in Week 18
Breece Hall

Injures Knee in Loss to Patriots
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Exits With Heel Injury in Week 17 Loss
Dalton Kincaid

Won't Play Against Philadelphia
Harold Fannin Jr.

Ruled Out for Remainder of Week 17 With Groin Injury
Maxx Crosby

to Undergo Meniscus Trim, "Evaluating His Future" in Las Vegas
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable to Return in Week 17 With Rib Injury
Harold Fannin Jr.

Questionable to Return With Groin Injury
Travis Kelce

to Evaluate his Future in the Offseason
Lamar Jackson

Likely to Return in Week 18
DJ Moore

Added to Injury Report, Questionable for Week 17
Josh Allen

No Limitations for Josh Allen Against Eagles
Tyler Herro

Showing Progress but Still Without Timetable
CFB

Jay Hill Expected to be Next Michigan Defensive Coordinator
Zach Collins

Exits Late With Lower-Body Injury
Chris Boucher

Ruled Out Sunday for Personal Reasons
Harold Fannin Jr.

Officially Active Against Steelers
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Suiting Up Against Bengals on Sunday
Chris Olave

Active for Week 17 Against Titans
Tetairoa McMillan

Active for Week 17 Against Seahawks
Gabe Vincent

Out Again Sunday With Back Issue
Green Bay Packers

Packers Not Ready to Name a Starting Quarterback for Week 18
Jrue Holiday

Remains Out Sunday Against Celtics
Green Bay Packers

Packers Expected to Rest Key Players in Week 18
Collin Murray-Boyles

Unlikely to Play Sunday Due to Illness
Tetairoa McMillan

Expected to Play in Week 17 Despite Illness
Tetairoa McMillan

Added to Injury Report, Questionable to Play in Week 17
Andrei Svechnikov

Extends Scoring Run With Three-Point Effort
Auston Matthews

Bags Three Points Saturday Night
Alex Laferriere

Records First Career Hat Trick
William Nylander

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Saturday
Zach Werenski

Unlikely to Play Sunday
Jake Evans

to Miss 4-6 Weeks
J.J. Moser

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Ajay Mitchell

Cleared to Return Sunday
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic Ruled Out for Sunday
Kyshawn George

Iffy for Sunday
De'Anthony Melton

Sits Out First Leg of Back-to-Back
Jaxson Hayes

Unlikely to Play Sunday
Derrick Jones Jr.

to Return From Knee Injury Sunday
Jock Landale

in Danger of Missing Another Game Sunday
Vince Williams Jr.

Won't Play Sunday
Robert Williams III

Inactive on Sunday
Jerami Grant

to Sit Out Fifth Consecutive Game
Brandin Podziemski

Probable to Play Sunday
Jakob Poeltl

to Miss Another Game Sunday
RJ Barrett

Listed as Questionable for Sunday
Paul George

Probable for Meeting With Former Team
Joel Embiid

Won't Play on Sunday
Ryan McDonagh

Misses Saturday's Action
Jordan Kyrou

Jimmy Snuggerud Back for Blues Saturday
Tanner Jeannot

Misses First Game of the Season
Rasmus Dahlin

Won't Play on Saturday
Elias Pettersson

Ready to Return Saturday
Leo Carlsson

Available Against Kings
Jack Eichel

Still Out Saturday
Ilya Sorokin

Lands on Injured Reserve
Bo Horvat

Returns to Action Saturday
CFB

Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
CFB

Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach

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