Week 12 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Howdy, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings front and center and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).  Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of 125 last season and currently sit at 15th in 2018.

You take the time to read our articles and make decisions informed by our analysis, so why wouldn't you check how we're doing? Some advice may come in very entertaining packages, but that doesn't make it good. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Week 12 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

I know the floor is low -- being benched after turning the ball over three or four times -- but Jameis Winston (My Rank: 4, ECR: 6) is a top-five play. I’m sure many of you have seen the whole “composite TB QB” is the second-ranked QB behind Patrick Mahomes, but you’d have to guess which is playing! While Peyton Barber looked good against the Giants in Week 11, the Bucs are still an air-raid style passing offense with a terrible defense that will launch them into a shootout. Anyway, I remain fully on board this pirate ship.

Of more intrigue to speculators is Russell Wilson (10 vs. 13) and Lamar Jackson (12 vs. 14). What can I say? I’m a sucker for a mobile QB and while I wish Russ wasn’t playing at Carolina, I believe he’ll be needed and Seattle’s RB trio won’t get them through this. Then there’s Jackson, who is a candidate for 100 yards rushing any time he hits the field and expressed a desire to throw more. He won’t tally 27 rushes again -- he can’t if he wants to survive in the NFL -- but anyone with those rushing chops will sniff QB1 territory. Bonus points because he’s facing Oakland’s insulting excuse for a defense.

On the other side of things, you’ll find Aaron Rodgers (11 vs. 8) and fellows like Philip Rivers (13 vs. 11) Ben Roethlisberger (14 vs. 12). The Packers are facing a Vikings squad that held him to 281 yards and one touchdown in Week 2 and haven’t surrendered more than 200 passing yards in either of their last three games despite facing Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Mitch Trubisky.

Then there’s Rivers, who faces a Cardinals defense that hasn’t given up over 250 passing yards in five straight games, and Big Ben, who has to push on through Denver’s altitude after tossing three interceptions last week. Denver ranks fourth in passing Defense-adjusted Value Over Average per FootballOutsiders while checking in at 16th against the run. For what it's worth, the Cardinals are fifth against the pass (15th against the run). The Chargers are 12-point favorites at home (44 total) while Pittsburgh is favored by three on the road (47), which speaks to more of a run script in both with the Chargers defense potentially scooping a score on Josh Rosen.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Drew Brees	NO	QB	1	0
2	Cam Newton	CAR	QB	3	1
3	Andrew Luck	IND	QB	2	-1
4	Jameis Winston	TB	QB	6	2
5	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	4	-1
6	Kirk Cousins	MIN	QB	5	-1
7	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB	7	0
8	Tom Brady	NE	QB	9	1
9	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	10	1
10	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	14	4
11	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	8	-3
12	Lamar Jackson	BAL	QB	13	1
13	Philip Rivers	LAC	QB	12	-1
14	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	11	-3
15	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	16	1
16	Baker Mayfield	CLE	QB	15	-1
17	Nick Mullens	SF	QB	18	1
18	Andy Dalton	CIN	QB	17	-1
19	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	QB	24	5
20	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	20	0
21	Eli Manning	NYG	QB	19	-2
22	Blake Bortles	JAC	QB	23	1
23	Marcus Mariota	TEN	QB	22	-1
24	Case Keenum	DEN	QB	21	-3
25	Chase Daniel	CHI	QB	28	3
26	Colt McCoy	WAS	QB	25	-1
27	Josh McCown	NYJ	QB	27	0
28	Josh Rosen	ARI	QB	26	-2
29	Derek Carr	OAK	QB	29	0
30	Josh Allen	BUF	QB	30	0
31	Taysom Hill	NO	QB	32	1
32	Mitch Trubisky	CHI	QB	31	-1
33	Robert Griffin	BAL	QB	36	3
34	Ryan Fitzpatrick	TB	QB	37	3
35	Blaine Gabbert	TEN	QB	35	0
36	Brock Osweiler	MIA	QB	34	-2
37	Matt Barkley	BUF	QB	33	-4
38	Sam Darnold	NYJ	QB	38	0

 

Week 12 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

It’s hard to keep Matt Breida out of RB1 territory (11 vs. 13) going into a dream date with the Buccaneers, as I’m sure San Francisco would prefer to minimize Nick Mullens’ responsibility and let Breida run all over a struggling defense. He put the Giants on their buns two weeks ago (with a 60% snap share, his highest since Week 4) and now the oft-injured RB is coming off of a bye week against a Bucs defense that let Saquon Barkley have his way with them. Count me in. Very in.

The same goes for Josh Adams (21 vs. 26), who gets to face said Giants defense that has broken on the ground since trading Damon Harrison away. They’ve given up lines of 26-149-1 (Adrian Peterson, Week 8), 17-101-1 (Matt Breida, Week 10) and 18-106-1 (Peyton Barber, Week 11). AP and Breida also had receiving touchdowns, which makes Adams -- who just posted a 55% snap share in Week 11 -- a favorite of mine. Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement aren't moving the needle and Darren Sproles isn't ready for action, so let's roll with Adams with Philly favored by 5.5 points.

Those trending down are Adrian Peterson (24 vs. 20), Jordan Howard (26 vs. 23) and Tarik Cohen (30 vs. 27). These running backs share a common thread: dealing with a backup QB. Peterson was able to float his Week 11 rushing line with two touchdowns, but Colt McCoy will need to perform a miracle behind an already-ailing offensive line and sketchy WR corps to consistently bring Washington into the red zone. Ditto Chase Daniel, as Howard will likely need Khali Mack to strip sack Matthew Stafford on the two in order to get an inside-the-five carry.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Melvin Gordon	LAC	RB	1	0
2	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	3	1
3	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	2	-1
4	Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	4	0
5	James Conner	PIT	RB	5	0
6	Nick Chubb	CLE	RB	6	0
7	David Johnson	ARI	RB	7	0
8	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	RB	8	0
9	Leonard Fournette	JAC	RB	9	0
10	Joe Mixon	CIN	RB	10	0
11	Matt Breida	SF	RB	13	2
12	Marlon Mack	IND	RB	11	-1
13	Mark Ingram	NO	RB	12	-1
14	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	14	0
15	James White	NE	RB	17	2
16	Dalvin Cook	MIN	RB	15	-1
17	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	RB	16	-1
18	Gus Edwards	BAL	RB	21	3
19	Sony Michel	NE	RB	18	-1
20	Tevin Coleman	ATL	RB	19	-1
21	Josh Adams	PHI	RB	25	4
22	Lamar Miller	HOU	RB	22	0
23	Chris Carson	SEA	RB	24	1
24	Adrian Peterson	WAS	RB	20	-4
25	Dion Lewis	TEN	RB	27	2
26	Jordan Howard	CHI	RB	23	-3
27	Peyton Barber	TB	RB	28	1
28	LeSean McCoy	BUF	RB	29	1
29	Kenyan Drake	MIA	RB	30	1
30	Tarik Cohen	CHI	RB	26	-4
31	Alex Collins	BAL	RB	33	2
32	Theo Riddick	DET	RB	35	3
33	Elijah McGuire	NYJ	RB	34	1
34	Frank Gore	MIA	RB	31	-3
35	Duke Johnson	CLE	RB	32	-3
36	Isaiah Crowell	NYJ	RB	36	0
37	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	38	1
38	LeGarrette Blount	DET	RB	37	-1
39	Doug Martin	OAK	RB	41	2
40	Jalen Richard	OAK	RB	39	-1
41	Royce Freeman	DEN	RB	42	1
42	Austin Ekeler	LAC	RB	40	-2
43	Rashaad Penny	SEA	RB	45	2
44	Mike Davis	SEA	RB	47	3
45	Ito Smith	ATL	RB	44	-1
46	Alfred Morris	SF	RB	49	3
47	Zach Zenner	DET	RB	69	22
48	Latavius Murray	MIN	RB	50	2
49	Nyheim Hines	IND	RB	43	-6
50	Kapri Bibbs	WAS	RB	52	2
51	Giovani Bernard	CIN	RB	46	-5
52	T.J. Yeldon	JAC	RB	51	-1
53	Corey Clement	PHI	RB	48	-5
54	Kyle Juszczyk	SF	RB	59	5
55	Wendell Smallwood	PHI	RB	55	0
56	Alfred Blue	HOU	RB	53	-3
57	Jordan Wilkins	IND	RB	57	0
58	Trenton Cannon	NYJ	RB	64	6
59	Jacquizz Rodgers	TB	RB	54	-5
60	Carlos Hyde	JAC	RB	56	-4
61	Deandre Washington	OAK	RB	58	-3
62	Jamaal Williams	GB	RB	60	-2
63	Devontae Booker	DEN	RB	61	-2
64	Chase Edmonds	ARI	RB	63	-1
65	Chris Ivory	BUF	RB	82	17
66	Javorius Allen	BAL	RB	65	-1
67	Ronald Jones II	TB	RB	78	11
68	Marcus Murphy	BUF	RB	62	-6
69	Ty Montgomery	BAL	RB	67	-2
70	Rod Smith	DAL	RB	66	-4
71	Wayne Gallman	NYG	RB	68	-3
72	Jaylen Samuels	PIT	RB	70	-2
73	Cameron Artis-Payne	CAR	RB	72	-1
74	Dwayne Washington	NO	RB	74	0
75	Byron Marshall	WAS	RB	73	-2
76	Kalen Ballage	MIA	RB	71	-5
77	Roosevelt Nix	PIT	RB	88	11
78	Andy Janovich	DEN	RB	79	1
79	James Develin	NE	RB	87	8
80	C.J. Prosise	SEA	RB	91	11
81	Stevan Ridley	PIT	RB	77	-4
82	Zach Line	NO	RB	81	-1
83	Alex Armah	CAR	RB	80	-3
84	Benny Cunningham	CHI	RB	90	6
85	Mark Walton	CIN	RB	75	-10

 

Week 12 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

It’s cheating to note that A.J. Green (12 vs. 45) is way above the ECR, right? Ok, ok. How about guys like Chris Godwin (34 vs. 39) and Marquise Goodwin (35 vs. 41) stepping into the WR3 ranks? Godwin was questionable all week but still managed 50 receiving yards while playing on 32% of the snaps. With Tampa Bay unable to roll out a frightful two-TE set anymore, Godwin should be a bigger factor in the red zone.

And I know what I said about Breida getting loads of work, but no one on the Bucs can match Goodwin’s speed and just one slant pass could lead to the house. He tallied an 84% snap share in Week 10 that trailed only Kendrick Bourne (95%) with Pierre Garcon out and Goodwin's ~5 targets a week is enough for me given his ceiling per look. This setup is why I recommended Christian Kirk last week and that turned out well!

I can’t sit Kenny Golladay (17 vs. 12) anywhere, but Detroit being without Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones really hurts their chances at getting towards the red zone against a stout Bears defense. Another sinker is Tre’Quan Smith (31 vs. 23), who I simply find hard to trust on a bad foot and his low floor.

Though he’s still ahead of Courtland Sutton (33 vs. 28), who has averaged five targets per game all season long with no change following Demaryius Thomas’ trade. He also hasn’t seen a red-zone target since Week 5. I don’t want to trust Case Keenum to suddenly elevate him against the evidence.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Michael Thomas	NO	WR	1	0
2	Julio Jones	ATL	WR	2	0
3	Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	6	3
4	Antonio Brown	PIT	WR	3	-1
5	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	WR	5	0
6	Odell Beckham Jr.	NYG	WR	4	-2
7	Davante Adams	GB	WR	8	1
8	Mike Evans	TB	WR	7	-1
9	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	10	1
10	T.Y. Hilton	IND	WR	11	1
11	Stefon Diggs	MIN	WR	9	-2
12	A.J. Green	CIN	WR	48	36
13	JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	13	0
14	Alshon Jeffery	PHI	WR	16	2
15	Josh Gordon	NE	WR	14	-1
16	Julian Edelman	NE	WR	15	-1
17	Kenny Golladay	DET	WR	12	-5
18	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	WR	17	-1
19	Tyler Boyd	CIN	WR	18	-1
20	Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	20	0
21	Amari Cooper	DAL	WR	19	-2
22	Doug Baldwin	SEA	WR	21	-1
23	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	22	-1
24	DeSean Jackson	TB	WR	27	3
25	D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	31	6
26	Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	24	-2
27	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	WR	30	3
28	Calvin Ridley	ATL	WR	25	-3
29	Corey Davis	TEN	WR	26	-3
30	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR	29	-1
31	Tre'Quan Smith	NO	WR	23	-8
32	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	28	-4
33	Sterling Shepard	NYG	WR	32	-1
34	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	39	5
35	Marquise Goodwin	SF	WR	40	5
36	Devin Funchess	CAR	WR	33	-3
37	Tyrell Williams	LAC	WR	37	0
38	Keke Coutee	HOU	WR	36	-2
39	Mohamed Sanu	ATL	WR	38	-1
40	Golden Tate	PHI	WR	34	-6
41	Christian Kirk	ARI	WR	44	3
42	John Brown	BAL	WR	43	1
43	Danny Amendola	MIA	WR	42	-1
44	Devante Parker	MIA	WR	50	6
45	Anthony Miller	CHI	WR	35	-10
46	Kenny Stills	MIA	WR	54	8
47	Donte Moncrief	JAC	WR	46	-1
48	Willie Snead	BAL	WR	52	4
49	Adam Humphries	TB	WR	47	-2
50	Taylor Gabriel	CHI	WR	41	-9
51	Quincy Enunwa	NYJ	WR	57	6
52	Michael Crabtree	BAL	WR	53	1
53	Demaryius Thomas	HOU	WR	45	-8
54	Dede Westbrook	JAC	WR	49	-5
55	Bruce Ellington	DET	WR	87	32
56	Robby Anderson	NYJ	WR	59	3
57	David Moore	SEA	WR	56	-1
58	Cole Beasley	DAL	WR	58	0
59	Mike Williams	LAC	WR	51	-8
60	Randall Cobb	GB	WR	73	13
61	Jordy Nelson	OAK	WR	88	27
62	Zay Jones	BUF	WR	67	5
63	Maurice Harris	WAS	WR	65	2
64	John Ross	CIN	WR	55	-9
65	Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	62	-3
66	Josh Doctson	WAS	WR	63	-3
67	Nelson Agholor	PHI	WR	61	-6
68	Trey Quinn	WAS	WR	94	26
69	Jermaine Kearse	NYJ	WR	68	-1
70	Curtis Samuel	CAR	WR	60	-10
71	Seth Roberts	OAK	WR	66	-5
72	Dontrelle Inman	IND	WR	64	-8
73	Pierre Garcon	SF	WR	79	6
74	Kendrick Bourne	SF	WR	72	-2
75	Antonio Callaway	CLE	WR	69	-6
76	Marcell Ateman	OAK	WR	77	1
77	Tajae Sharpe	TEN	WR	76	-1
78	Kelvin Benjamin	BUF	WR	70	-8
79	Dante Pettis	SF	WR	83	4
80	D.J. Chark	JAC	WR	80	0
81	Ryan Grant	IND	WR	78	-3
82	Keith Kirkwood	NO	WR	82	0
83	Allen Hurns	DAL	WR	75	-8
84	Chris Hogan	NE	WR	71	-13
85	Rashard Higgins	CLE	WR	74	-11
86	Taywan Taylor	TEN	WR	100	14
87	Jarius Wright	CAR	WR	90	3
88	Brandon Marshall	NO	WR	103	15
89	Tim Patrick	DEN	WR	93	4
90	Keelan Cole	JAC	WR	86	-4
91	Jordan Matthews	PHI	WR	84	-7
92	TJ Jones	DET	WR	91	-1
93	Trent Taylor	SF	WR	96	3
94	Laquon Treadwell	MIN	WR	85	-9
95	Equanimeous St. Brown	GB	WR	89	-6
96	Travis Benjamin	LAC	WR	99	3
97	Cordarrelle Patterson	NE	WR	97	0
98	Breshad Perriman	CLE	WR	92	-6
99	Austin Carr	NO	WR	102	3
100	Aldrick Robinson	MIN	WR	95	-5
101	Chester Rogers	IND	WR	81	-20
102	James Washington	PIT	WR	98	-4
103	Josh Bellamy	CHI	WR	107	4
104	Michael Floyd	WAS	WR	106	2
105	Robert Foster	BUF	WR	104	-1
106	Damion Ratley	CLE	WR	109	3
107	Cody Core	CIN	WR	108	1
108	Cam Batson	TEN	WR	112	4
109	Marvin Hall	ATL	WR	116	7
110	Rishard Matthews	NYJ	WR	113	3
111	Alex Erickson	CIN	WR	111	0
112	Chris Moore	BAL	WR	114	2
113	Phillip Dorsett	NE	WR	118	5
114	Richie James	SF	WR	124	10
115	Ryan Switzer	PIT	WR	101	-14
116	Torrey Smith	CAR	WR	129	13
117	Auden Tate	CIN	WR	110	-7
118	Andre Holmes	BUF	WR	126	8
119	Justin Hardy	ATL	WR	123	4
120	Dwayne Harris	OAK	WR	115	-5
121	Jaron Brown	SEA	WR	117	-4
122	Bennie Fowler	NYG	WR	105	-17
123	Corey Coleman	NYG	WR	121	-2
124	Chad Beebe	MIN	WR	120	-4
125	Daesean Hamilton	DEN	WR	125	0
126	Zach Pascal	IND	WR	119	-7
127	Leonte Carroo	MIA	WR	122	-5
128	Trent Sherfield	ARI	WR	127	-1
129	J.J. Nelson	ARI	WR	128	-1
130	Darius Jennings	TEN	WR	130	0
131	Dan Arnold	NO	WR	131	0
132	Andy Jones	DET	WR	134	2

 

Week 12 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

How about Cameron Brate (6 vs. 9) becoming the man of the TE hour for Tampa Bay now? O.J. Howard is on the IR and Jameis Winston is back at QB, which bodes doubly well for Brate, who has shown great rapport with Winston in the past. I have several players two slots above the ECR, but Jonnu Smith (17 vs. 21) is the biggest jumper.

After being content with three targets a game, Smith tallied eight targets in Week 12 for a 6-44-0 line after catching a TD in Weeks 9 and 10. He faces a Houston defense that has given up a 10-83-1 line to Jeff Heuerman in Week 9 and a 7-71-1 line to Jordan Reed in Week 11. There are far worse darts to throw, even if Marcus Mariota doesn’t play.

Then we’ve got Trey Burton (12 vs. 8) and Evan Engram (18 vs. 14), who I find extremely hard to trust. I noted Burton’s low target volume last week and he turned in a season-low one target as a reward, and now his QB is likely downgraded. Those in PPR leagues can take some solace in an inexperienced QB leaning on a big-target TE, but most should look elsewhere. Okay, but perhaps not in the Giants locker room.

Engram’s plus athleticism obviously remains, but he’s seen four, nine, five and two targets in his last four games. Laugh all you want at the Eagles recent struggles, but they’ve surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2018 and no one has topped 41 yards against them since Week 2. Here are the Giants red-zone opportunities thus far: Barkley (31), Odell Beckham Jr. (19), Sterling Shepard (14), Wayne Gallman (6) and Evan Engram (5). I know he’s missed a little time, but still. Yikes.

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	1	0
2	George Kittle	SF	TE	2	0
3	Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	4	1
4	Jack Doyle	IND	TE	5	1
5	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	3	-2
6	Cameron Brate	TB	TE	7	1
7	David Njoku	CLE	TE	6	-1
8	Austin Hooper	ATL	TE	10	2
9	Jared Cook	OAK	TE	8	-1
10	Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	11	1
11	Vance McDonald	PIT	TE	12	1
12	Trey Burton	CHI	TE	9	-3
13	Kyle Rudolph	MIN	TE	15	2
14	Eric Ebron	IND	TE	13	-1
15	Benjamin Watson	NO	TE	17	2
16	Jeff Heuerman	DEN	TE	16	0
17	Jonnu Smith	TEN	TE	21	4
18	Evan Engram	NYG	TE	14	-4
19	Chris Herndon IV	NYJ	TE	19	0
20	C.J. Uzomah	CIN	TE	18	-2
21	Nick Vannett	SEA	TE	22	1
22	Ricky Seals-Jones	ARI	TE	20	-2
23	Antonio Gates	LAC	TE	23	0
24	James O'Shaughnessy	JAC	TE	24	0
25	Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	28	3
26	Jesse James	PIT	TE	26	0
27	Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	25	-2
28	Mike Gesicki	MIA	TE	30	2
29	Virgil Green	LAC	TE	32	3
30	Ryan Griffin	HOU	TE	34	4
31	Ed Dickson	SEA	TE	27	-4
32	Rico Gathers	DAL	TE	57	25
33	Vernon Davis	WAS	TE	33	0
34	Lance Kendricks	GB	TE	29	-5
35	Josh Hill	NO	TE	35	0
36	Charles Clay	BUF	TE	40	4
37	Jordan Thomas	HOU	TE	36	-1
38	Hayden Hurst	BAL	TE	31	-7
39	Luke Willson	DET	TE	37	-2
40	Logan Thomas	BUF	TE	44	4
41	Mo Alie-Cox	IND	TE	38	-3
42	Jermaine Gresham	ARI	TE	45	3
43	Michael Roberts	DET	TE	53	10
44	Blake Bell	JAC	TE	50	6
45	Luke Stocker	TEN	TE	39	-6
46	Blake Jarwin	DAL	TE	55	9
47	Nick O'Leary	MIA	TE	49	2
48	Matt LaCosse	DEN	TE	47	-1
49	Rhett Ellison	NYG	TE	64	15
50	Garrett Celek	SF	TE	66	16
51	Levine Toilolo	DET	TE	52	1
52	Richard Rodgers	PHI	TE	83	31
53	Logan Paulsen	ATL	TE	58	5
54	Darren Fells	CLE	TE	61	7
55	Maxx Williams	BAL	TE	72	17
56	David Morgan	MIN	TE	79	23
57	Jacob Hollister	NE	TE	65	8
58	Xavier Grimble	PIT	TE	69	11
59	Darrell Daniels	SEA	TE	74	15

More Fantasy Football Analysis

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.