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Later-round starting pitchers (SP) fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts predictions for 2026. These cheap SP draft values with upside make for great late-round picks.
At RotoBaller we continue our late-round fantasy baseball values and sleepers series and discuss five starting pitchers that could smash their current ADP. Below, you will find five later-round starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers and values.
Logan Henderson, Ryan Weathers, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Painter, and Kris Bubic are five starters that fantasy managers should consider targeting in the later rounds in their upcoming fantasy drafts. The later rounds are where you can shoot for the moon and select players with league-winning upside, take a chance on an injured star, or even an emerging top prospect. If fantasy managers miss out on taking a top 25 starter in their upcoming fantasy drafts, we have some late-round options who could pay off and be a tremendous value. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will these pitchers provide a big return on their draft day cost? Read on to see our takes.
The five SP fantasy baseball outlooks for 2026 below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. Be sure to save 30% on any MLB Package today to start reading all of our in-depth 2026 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more. Let's win some leagues in 2026!
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Later-Round Values: SP Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Logan Henderson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Logan Henderson was fantastic in limited opportunities in 2025, posting a 1.78 ERA and 25.3% K-BB% in five starts for Milwaukee. The Brewers had an abundance of arms last season, which kept Henderson in the minors for most of the year. Things look different this year with the departures of Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, and Jose Quintana.
Now there are spots available in the Brewers' rotation, and Henderson has a real chance to secure one out of spring training. With just a 92.9 mph fastball, he isn't known for his heat, but he does have strong movement on the fastball with 17.1 inches of induced vertical break and 11 inches of arm-side run.
His best pitch is the changeup, a soft 81.9 mph pitch with an incredibly high spin rate for a changeup at 2504 RPM. He also gets a whopping 18.8 inches of arm-side movement with the changeup, making it a devastating strikeout offering.
In the minors, Henderson has a 31% whiff rate with the changeup and a .188 xBA against. It was slightly worse in the majors, with a 28.2% whiff rate and a .238 xBA. He's willing to throw the pitch to batters from both sides of the plate, making it a strong, versatile offering we don't often see with changeups.
It would be nice to see him incorporate his cutter and slider more often in 2026, as he was overly reliant on the fastball-changeup combo (88.8% combined usage in the majors, 79.9% combined usage in the minors).
Henderson has also displayed a strong command, along with his nasty changeup, and he never had a K-BB% below 20% at any stop in the minor leagues. He's currently going at pick 273 in NFBC leagues in February, and he's a great dart throw at that price. You don't have to pay a prospect premium, and he's got a clearer path to MLB innings than a lot of other prospects at this juncture.
-- Elliott Baas - RotoBaller
Ryan Weathers, SP, New York Yankees
During the offseason, the New York Yankees acquired lefty starting pitcher Ryan Weathers from the Miami Marlins for four prospects. Due to injuries to Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, Weathers will begin the 2026 season in the rotation as a fill-in starter, but is expected to go to the bullpen once Rodon returns in April or May.
Across 281 career innings, the Tennessee native owns a 4.54 xERA, a 19.4% K-BB rate, and a 1.38 WHIP. Despite the uneven results, many scouts and executives believe there is still untapped potential in his profile, largely due to his arsenal and velocity. Weathers features a lively three-pitch mix headlined by a 97 mph four-seam fastball, while his changeup and sweeper both generate whiff rates near 40%.
New York Yankees' starting pitcher Ryan Weathers threw multiple pitches at 1.5 mph faster in Wednesday's Spring Training outing. Besides the increased velocity, it's worth noting that Weathers was leaning on sweepers (45%) against left-handed hitters.
That's notable because… pic.twitter.com/HUZqb7V8LY
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) February 26, 2026
Unfortunately, injuries have prevented Weathers from achieving consistent success at the major league level. The 26-year-old managed just 38 innings in 2025 due to oblique and lat strains, but he has reported to camp fully healthy. For 2026, ATC projects the No. 7 overall pick in the 2018 draft for a 3.99 ERA, 23% strikeout rate, and 1.25 WHIP across 126 innings.
Ultimately, the key question is whether most of his innings will be as a starter or in relief. With his current NFBC ADP of 245 in March, he is a risky upside play that could pay off big time. However, if you draft Weathers, make sure to back him up with a couple more starting pitchers just in case he is sent to the bullpen.
-- Marty Tallman - RotoBaller
Andrew Painter, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter is expected to make his long-awaited and highly anticipated MLB debut in 2026. Painter was drafted by the Phillies in 2021 out of high school. The right-hander, who will turn 23 in April, missed the entire 2023 season after receiving Tommy John surgery.
He returned to the mound in the Arizona Fall League in the fall of 2024 and didn't miss a beat, still pumping 95+ mph on his fastball. In his first full year since surgery in 2025, Painter tossed 118 innings to the tune of a 5.26 ERA. He struggled with his command, walking 47 batters, and with the long ball, surrendering 20 home runs, making 22 of his 26 starts in Triple-A.
Those numbers may not inspire confidence, but they shouldn't be cause for concern moving forward. Painter is expected to make the Phillies' Opening Day rotation, with Zack Wheeler expected to start the season on the injured list.
Painter is 22nd on MLB's 2026 Top 100 prospects and has the potential to be a frontline starter and is the future of Philadelphia's rotation. With an NFBC ADP of 287 (RotoBaller rank 328) in March, his fantasy stock is rising and is worth taking a late-round flyer on in upcoming fantasy drafts.
-- Lauren Amour - RotoBaller
Zebby Matthews, SP, Minnesota Twins
Zebby Matthews split his season in 2025 between Triple-A St. Paul and the Minnesota Twins' big club. In 16 MLB games, Matthews registered a 5-6 record, 5.56 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 10.0 K/9. Despite his underwhelming stats, Matthews did post above-average numbers in K% (24.9) and BB% (6.8) last year. In eight games in Triple-A in 2025, Matthews logged a 2-1 record, 1.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 11.5 K/9.
Although he was originally set to return to Triple-A for the 2026 season, MLB.com's Matthew Leach reported that Matthews became a candidate for the No. 5 rotation spot for the Twins to replace the injured Pablo Lopez, who will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire 2026 season.
Zebby Matthews battled through 4.0 innings against Puerto Rico today, striking out 3 while mixing a deep arsenal.
The fastball had life, the cutter played, and he kept hitters guessing all outing long. Not perfect, but plenty to like here. pic.twitter.com/tGJk2SbEGW
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) March 4, 2026
ATC projections forecast Matthews to post a 7-7 record with a 4.12 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 121 innings pitched. NFBC players are drafting Matthews at an ADP of 305. RotoBaller.com ranks Matthews at No. 254 overall and No. 100 among starting pitchers.
Matthews may be a potential fantasy value as a deeper starting pitcher if given the opportunity, especially as his .357 BABIP and 67.2% strand rate in 2025 indicate that he may have endured through some bad luck.
-- Sean Engel - RotoBaller
Kris Bubic, SP, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals left-hander Kris Bubic was in the middle of a breakout season last year before going down in July with a rotator cuff injury. He pitched to a 2.55 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 2.97 K/BB ratio in 116.1 innings before the injury. Not a hard thrower at just 92.1 mph with his four-seamer, Bubic's fastball excels thanks to its unique shape and 18.1 inches of induced vertical break.
He is plenty capable of getting by despite below-average velocity. His best pitch is an 85.5 mph changeup, which batters hit just .198 with a .242 SLG and .247 wOBA against last season. He also had an impressive 38.4% whiff rate with the pitch, meaning Bubic could sustain an above-average strikeout rate despite being a soft thrower.
It was nice to see Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic on the mound. Bubic had his four-seamers up in the zone, with sliders and changeups low in the zone.
-Changeups were effective against RHH (44.4% SwK)
-Solid four-seam IVB (17-18 inches)
-Main concern is health,… pic.twitter.com/TlRwykwDoJ— Corbin (@corbin_young21) March 2, 2026
He's projected to make the Royals' rotation, and while shoulder injuries are scary, if healthy, he could pick up right where he left off last season. A 2.55 ERA is probably unsustainable for him, but he could perhaps post something in the mid-3s with a plus strikeout rate and decent win potential on what should be an improved Kansas City team. He's currently going at pick 209 in NFBC leagues in March, making him a great late-round sleeper to roll the dice on.
-- Elliott Baas- RotoBaller
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