RADIO
After going 6-for-7 last weekend, we started this one going 4-for-5 with a return of 3.59 units on 5.5 units of (165% return). Since last Friday, we've had a 174% return on investment (ROI). The Braves covered the runline in a low-scoring, rain-delayed game which hit us both picks. The Tigers and Indians hit the over although the Tigers dropped the game 7-4, our only blemish. And Mike Minor tallied six strikeouts to hit the over as well. Can't really argue about an 80% win rate and 165% ROI to start this weekend.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
Before we crack on with Saturday's picks, I wanted to let everyone know that this will be my last MLB betting article of the year. We'll still be providing daily premium picks (provided by @LucidMediaDFS) and I'll still be having a flutter or two myself so feel free to give me a shout if you want any picks or tips etc (@Baseball_Jimbo). Let's go out with a bang, make some money and have fun. But remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 6-10 (-4.60 U)
- O/U Record: 13-13-2 (+0.32 U)
- Runline Record: 5-6 (+3.37 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 6-13 (-5.37 U)
- Prop Record: 19-17 (+2.23 U)
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAD -170, NYM +160
LAD: Walker Buehler | NYM: Taijuan Walker
The Dodgers took game one of the series 6-5 but needed extra innings despite leading by four runs after six innings. It was just the second time in 14 extra-inning games that the Dodgers managed to get the win and they'll be looking to ensure they get another win in easier fashion tonight.
In August, the Dodgers have the fifth-best wRC+ (119) while the Mets rank 21st (89). The Dodgers also fare much better than the Mets this month in ISO (.181 versus .144) and wOBA (.346 versus .297). They've scored 56 runs in ten games this month (5.6 per game) while the Mets have scored 42 runs in 12 games (3.5 per game), albeit they have also had a double-header in that span.
The Mets would have been feeling good coming into this series after sweeping the Nationals which came on the back of dropping six of their seven games prior to the Marlins and Phillies. The Dodgers haven't lost a series to anyone not named the Giants since the All-Star Break and will look to seal this one behind their ace tonight.
Buehler is a leading contender for the NL Cy Young award this year with a 2.13 ERA from 23 starts this year (147.2 IP). He is on a streak of six quality starts, all without allowing more than one earned run. He leads MLB with 20 quality starts this year and hasn't allowed a home run since June 24th (nine starts ago).
Walker's season is starting to unravel. After entering July with a 2.38 ERA, his last seven starts have seen him allow 27 earned runs in 31.2 IP (7.67 ERA) and his season ERA now sits at 3.98. While Buehler has been keeping the ball inside the ballpark, Walker has given up ten homers in his last four starts (20.2 IP) after allowing just six in his first 17 starts.
In his last five starts, Walker has allowed two or more runs in the first three innings on four occasions. The only time he started the game with three scoreless innings in those five games, he gave up three runs in the fourth inning and two more in the fifth.
Giving Walker's recent struggles and the Mets so-so offense, I'm going to back the Dodgers taking an early lead and unlike last night, maintain throughout the game and run out pretty comfortable winners.
Pick: Runline - Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-102) 1.5 Units
Pick: First 5 innings - Over 4.5 runs (+100) 1 Unit
Pick: First 3 innings - Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 (+100) 1 Unit
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: HOU -180, LAA +155
HOU: Luis Garcia | LAA: Jaime Barria
The Astros made it three straight wins on Friday, beating the Angels 4-1 behind Zack Greinke's seven shutout innings and Kyle Tucker's first career grand slam. Despite the comfortable win, the Astros offense hasn't been very explosive in August. They rank 14th in wRC+ (105), tied-13th in ISO (.163) and 17th in wOBA (.316). They are 5-5 in August despite failing to score more than five runs in any game but they have scored at least three runs in all ten games and are averaging 4.1 runs per game.
The Angels welcomed back Jared Walsh this week but are still without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon which helps explain their offensive struggles in August. This month, they rank 25th in wRC+ (77), 28th in ISO (.111) and 26th in wOBA (.279). They are averaging 3.83 runs per game this month (46 runs in 12 games) and like the Astros, have a .500 record.
Rookie Luis Garcia is having an excellent season with a 3.29 ERA from 106.2 IP (19 starts and 2 relief appearances). His 3.54 xERA and 3.66 xFIP supports his numbers for the most part and after a couple of rough outings, bounced back last time out with six shutout innings (two hits, no walks and eight strikeouts) against the Twins. His prior two starts saw Garcia give up ten earned runs in 9.1 IP, but those two starts combined for a 2.84 SIERA and a 2.61 xFIP so weren't as bad as the end lines suggest.
Barria continues to have success since returning to the Major League level as a starter, with three straight quality starts since his recall. He has a 2.29 ERA in those three starts, although his 4.95 xFIP does suggest some regression is imminent. Although a very small sample, Barria has also yet to allow a run at home this year (10.1 IP) and has been significantly better at home than on the road throughout his MLB career. Barria has a 3.52 home ERA (120.1 IP) and 5.28 road ERA (139.2).
I expect the Astros to win but envisage this being another low-scoring affair and possibly won by a solitary run so the moneyline nor the runline appeals to me. We'll back the under here with pitching expected to be on top tonight.
Pick: Total runs - Under 9.5 (-115) 1.5 Units
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ATL-170, WSH +150
ATL: Max Fried | WSH: Patrick Corbin
I don't like 'double-dipping' but despite picking this game yesterday (winning both bets), I'm going to end my season by breaking my rule. That's largely due to the starting pitchers.
The Braves needed four home runs on Friday night to seal a 4-2 win and they now get to face Corbin who has a 5.83 ERA this year and a 7.22 ERA over his last five starts (28.2 IP). He's allowed four or more earned runs in each of those starts but has completed five innings in each as the Nationals have nothing of significance to play for this year.
Corbin's last start was against the Braves on August 08th in which he allowed five earned runs on five hits and a walk from six innings. He faced Fried that game too and the Braves starter had a much better outing, going six innings and allowing just one run on seven hits and a walk. Despite a bullpen wobble, the Braves held on to win that game 5-4.
When I analyzed the matchup yesterday (click here to read the full article), I noted how the Braves offense hasn't been great this month but should still have enough to beat the Nationals even with the young star Josiah Gray starting for the Nationals. Corbin hasn't pitched anything like a star this year and even less so recently so I expect the Braves to put up runs early and often before seeing through a comfortable win.
Pick: Runline - Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+100) 1 Unit
Pick: First 5 innings - Over 4.5 runs (-115) 1.5 Units
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