8 Breakout Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Kipp Heisterman's Picks

March 17, 2026

Kipp Heisterman's 2026 fantasy baseball pitcher sleepers to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued starting pitchers and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

There are multiple schools of thought when it comes to drafting your fantasy baseball roster. One school of thought is to draft stud starting pitchers and try to find some of the best value hitters on the market. I am a firm believer in this strategy, but I also believe you can have a ton of success drafting stud hitters early and find value or sleeper pitchers in later rounds.

This article will focus on the latter. It is my goal to help you identify some diamonds in the rough at the starting pitching position to help you win your league. These will be pitchers that have an ADP (per NFBC since February 16) beyond 100, and may not be the household names all of your league mates will be focused on.

So, let's dive into my eight breakout pitchers for the 2026 fantasy baseball season!

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

ADP - 100

We are going to kick this article off with the youngster in New York. McLean made his debut in 2025 and pitched to the tune of a 2.06 ERA with 57 strikeouts across 48 IP. It was a solid start to his big league career and sets the stage for him to improve in 2026.

While he did not qualify per Statcast metrics, he did post some pretty solid numbers. Overall, he posted a very respectable 3.53 xERA. Additionally, his 30.3% K rate was outstanding. He also managed to keep the ball on the ground, as noted by his 60.2% ground-ball rate.

Pairing the strikeouts with the ground-ball rate is what has my eye on him heading into 2026. Couple that with the fact that he has an immensely stout lineup behind him, and he could really rack up some wins in addition to his strikeouts and low ERA.

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

ADP - 113

Chase Burns of the Reds is another starting pitcher who debuted in 2025 and will look to build on his young resume heading into the 2026 campaign. While Burns did not have the ERA success of McLean, as he posted a 4.57 ERA across 43 1/3 innings pitched, his Statcast metrics looked really good.

Overall, he posted a 35.6% K rate, 3.48 xERA, 31.5% chase rate, 31.9% whiff rate, and a 98.7 mph fastball. He, like McLean, did not qualify on these metrics, except for fastball velocity, but he would have ranked very highly in most of them.

He will provide a ton of strikeout potential in 2026, as noted by his 67 punchouts across 43 1/3 IP in 2025, and the xERA was significantly better than his actual ERA, which leads me to believe there could be some major improvements here in 2026. Managers should keep an eye on his status over the next week, as reports suggest the Reds may closely monitor his workload early in the campaign and send him to Triple-A.

Even if he were to have a slower start, on a per-inning basis, Burns' upside is immense and could be a league-winner down the stretch.

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP - 128

The youth trend continues with Jacob Misiorowski, who will look to follow up on a rookie campaign in which he posted a 4.36 ERA with 87 strikeouts over 66 IP. While the 4.36 ERA was a little higher than we would have liked, it was his first taste of the big leagues, and he ended up with a 3.41 xERA that ranked him in the 77th percentile.

Misiorowski is another high-upside pitcher with elite strikeout potential, and the metrics back this prototype. Overall, he posted a 32% K rate, 29.7% whiff rate, and came in with a 99.3 mph fastball velocity. All of these ranked him in the 80th percentile or better. While his chase rate was a bit low at 28.5%, this is something he will be able to work on with better location and deception.

One area we will also want to see further improvement in 2026 is his walk rate. In 2025, he posted an 11% walk rate, which ranked him in the 11th percentile. This directly corresponds to his low chase rate, as he clearly was not getting hitters to swing out of the zone. This happens with young pitchers and is not something to be overly concerned about.

I drafted him in my high-stakes league, and his current ADP of 132 makes him a solid second arm in your rotations heading into 2026.

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

ADP - 154

Gavin Williams is going to take a big step forward in 2026, and I have been trying to draft him wherever I can. He finished the second half of the 2025 season on a high note and has a ton of momentum heading into 2026.

Overall, in 2025, Williams finished with a 3.06 ERA and 173 strikeouts across 167 2/3 innings pitched. While the Statcast metrics do not jump off the page, he did rank in the 65th percentile or better in K rate (65th percentile), whiff rate (70th percentile), ground-ball rate (70th percentile), and fastball velocity (84th percentile).

He also has the benefit of pitching in the AL Central, which is not exactly known for having the most potent offenses in baseball. In 2025, the Twins, White Sox, and Royals all ranked 18th or worse in terms of wRC+, so Williams should certainly continue to find success against these opponents.

It is also no secret that the Cleveland Guardians are masterminds when it comes to starting pitching, so continued progress for Williams in 2026 feels like a safe bet.

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP - 164

Trey Yesavage burst onto the scene in last year's postseason and will be looking to carry that momentum forward into the 2026 campaign. We have very limited big league data to go on, as Yesavage pitched just 14 innings in the 2025 regular season across three starts, but he struck out 16 batters and posted a 3.21 ERA.

In the playoffs, he tallied 39 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.

His minor league stats (all from 2025) show a guy who can absolutely mow down hitters, as he struck out 160 batters across 98 IP. This came across all levels of the minors, as he ascended the Blue Jays' system quite rapidly. He also posted a 3.12 ERA over that span, which is quite respectable when put into context.

There will undoubtedly be some growing pains for the young rookie heading into 2026, but the upside is worth the risk with him, and he makes for a solid selection at his current ADP of 161.

Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers

ADP - 246

The next three names are going to be a bit deeper into the ADP, as I want to try and find some serious diamonds in the rough, who do not require a ton of draft capital. First on that list is Jack Leiter, who has a ton of pedigree but has struggled to put it all together at the big league level.

In 2025, he started to turn the corner a bit, posting a 3.86 ERA over 29 starts. He also struck out 148 batters across 151 2/3 innings pitched, which was respectable. He throws gas, as evidenced by his 97 mph fastball ranking him in the 88th percentile, but there isn't much more promise in the metrics.

The reason I see some promise in Leiter is that he only has one truly awful pitch, and that is his sinker. He threw it 12% of the time in 2025, resulting in a BAA of .329. Meanwhile, every other pitch resulted in a sub-.240 BAA. If he reduces or eliminates this pitch from his mix, his numbers could be much better in 2026.

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

ADP - 284

Joey Cantillo is the second Cleveland Guardian on this list; however, he comes at a much lower ADP than Gavin Williams above. Cantillo appeared in 34 games (13 starts) in 2025, and finished with a 3.21 ERA and 108 strikeouts across 95 1/3 innings pitched.

In 2026, the plan is for Cantillo to work as a starter once again, and the metrics from last season show that he could be a very capable one. Overall, he posted a 3.71 xERA, 29.7% whiff rate, 26.9% K rate, and 7.2% barrel rate, all of which ranked him in the 64th percentile or better.

He has an absolutely devastating changeup, which resulted in a .165 BAA and 49.4% whiff rate. If he can continue to set this up as he did in 2025, the future should be very bright for Cantillo.

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

ADP - 307

Zebby Matthews is the biggest wildcard on this list, and his ADP of 313 expresses that. He is a guy that I took with my final pick in my high-stakes draft and am hoping to strike lightning in a bottle with.

He has immense strikeout upside, as noted by 88 punch outs across 79 1/3 IP last season, and his 30.2% chase rate had him ranked in the 74th percentile of the league, so he was good at getting hitters to swing outside of the zone.

Unfortunately, the strikeouts did little to help his ERA, as he finished with an ugly 5.56 ERA and a lackluster xERA of just 4.67. One additional positive to note is the fact that he posted just a 6.8% walk rate, which ranked him in the 71st percentile, so at least he does not beat himself.

If he can limit the hard contact in 2026, he has the potential to be a much better pitcher than he was in 2025. While this is a big if, there is limited risk in drafting him at his current ADP, which sits north of 300.

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