RADIO
Later-round first base (1B) fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts predictions for 2026. These cheap 1B draft values with upside make for great late-round picks.
Spring training is in full swing, and we are getting close to some of the biggest draft weekends for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. At RotoBaller, we already released our middle-round draft values and targets series, and today we're back with our later-round fantasy baseball draft sleepers series to help crush your upcoming fantasy drafts. Below you will find some of our favorite later-round first base fantasy baseball sleepers and values that are cheap to draft in 2026.
The later rounds are where you can shoot for the moon and select players with league-winning upside, take a chance on an injured star, or even an emerging top prospect. If fantasy managers miss out on taking a top 12 first baseman in their upcoming fantasy drafts, we have some late-round options who could pay off and be a tremendous value. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will these hitters provide a big return on their draft day cost? Read on to see our takes.
The five 1B fantasy baseball outlooks for 2026 below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. Be sure to save 30% on any MLB Package today to start reading all of our in-depth 2026 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more. Let's win some leagues in 2026!
Featured Promo: Save 50% off the regular price with discount code SUMMER, for a limited time. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, DFS cheat sheets, Lineup Optimizers, betting/prop picks, and exclusive content from Nick Mariano and Eric Cross! GAIN ACCESS NOW
Later-Round Values: 1B Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
On a per-plate appearance basis, St. Louis Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson had arguably the best season of his career in 2025. Across 546 plate appearances, the 27-year-old hit .290/.343/.459 with 18 home runs, 69 RBI, 54 runs scored, and five stolen bases. Burleson upped his barrel rate from 6.5% in 2024 to 9.4% in 2025 without sacrificing much swing-and-miss, as he still struck out at just a 14.5% clip.
The lefty-swinging Burleson also made significant strides against same-handed pitching, slashing a respectable .271/.310/.398 across 127 plate appearances against left-handers. While Burleson's .708 OPS against lefties in 2025 may not jump off the page, it's significantly better than his career mark of .606.
27 year old Alec Burleson was one of the most steady hitters for the Cardinals last year. The balance of good bat to ball skills with solid power makes him a dangerous hitter. He will likely be STL starting 1B this year and should play huge impact for the team going forward. pic.twitter.com/Y4TYF5APp5
— Jackson Scudder (@jscud23) January 28, 2026
His strides against left-handed pitching, as well as the Cardinals' offseason subtractions of veterans like first baseman Willson Contreras and utility man Brendan Donovan, could allow Burleson to hold a true everyday role and record his first season with more than 600 plate appearances in 2026.
Burleson is unlikely to provide elite production in any one traditional rotisserie scoring fantasy category. However, he qualifies at both first base and outfield and could provide above-average outputs everywhere other than stolen bases. With an average draft position of pick 184, Burleson profiles as a potentially undervalued source of batting average and counting stats in 2026.
-- Will Brady - RotoBaller
Willson Contreras, 1B, Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox acquired first baseman Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals in the offseason, and he is expected to play every day at either first base or DH. Contreras converted full-time to first base duties last year with the St. Louis Cardinals, playing every day until a September biceps injury ended his season early.
However, abandoning catching duties helped his run production. His 70 runs and 80 RBI marked career highs, as Contreras' walk rate and isolated slugging were down compared to recent seasons. His .791 OPS and 124 wRC+, while serviceable, were his lowest marks since 2021. Although the 33-year-old posted a career-high 13.8% Barrel rate and a near-49% Hard-Hit%.
Fenway Park is an overall upgrade for right-handed hitters like Contreras, although it plays below average for home runs. It's unfortunate that he no longer holds catcher eligibility, because fantasy expectations are higher for a first baseman. On the other hand, Contreras should get a boost from a better supporting cast, a hitter-friendly park, and a lineup spot as he is expected to hit clean-up for Boston in 2026.
ATC projections have him pegged for 22 home runs, .252 batting average, and a .342 wOBA. Contreras is a solid option at first base for those who wait at the position and comes in at 1B20 in the latest RotoBaller rankings. He profiles better as a corner infielder or utility bat in standard 12-team leagues.
-- Michael Cecchini - RotoBaller
Kazuma Okamoto, 1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays infielder Kazuma Okamoto missed about half of the 2025 NPB season with a left elbow injury, but hit .327/.416/.598 with 15 homers in 293 plate appearances. Okamoto's 224 wRC+ ranked in the 100th percentile and was built on a solid foundation of elevating the baseball (43.1 FB%), raw oomph (16 percent HR/FB), and pulling the ball (44.1 Pull%).
Okamoto demonstrated an advanced plate approach in his age-28 season, posting identical 11.3 BB% and K% marks backed by an 8.8 SwStr% and 25.9 percent chase rate. He posted similar numbers in a full 2024 as well (158 wRC+ in 526 PAs, 14.8 K%, 10.1 BB%, 23.5 percent chase rate, 44.9 Pull%).
That should give him a relatively high floor as he transitions to MLB with the Blue Jays. Toronto's 105 HR factor for right-handed hitters should help Okamoto. He currently projects seventh in Toronto's batting order, but could earn a prominent lineup role by outperforming Alejandro Kirk and Daulton Varsho. Okamoto should be a solid four-category contributor at his 276 NFBC ADP. ATC projects Okamoto to slash .243/.322/.438 with 22 home runs, 70 RBI, 62 runs, and a 111 wRC+ over 522 plate appearances in 2026.
-- Rick Lucks - RotoBaller
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
His first full season in the majors couldn't have gone much better for Cleveland Guardians first baseman Kyle Manzardo. The first baseman hit .234/.313/.455 with 27 home runs, 70 RBI, 47 runs, and two stolen bases. Manzardo did outperform his expected numbers, but only slightly. Certainly not enough to worry about serious regression hitting this year.
Manzardo was also consistent throughout the year. May was the only month in which he didn't post a 105 wRC+ or better. The only knock against Manzardo is his struggles against left-handed pitching (LHP). He only hit .186/.253/.419 against LHP last year, with an 83 wRC+. Noticeably worse than his numbers against righties, as he hit .245/.326/.464 with a 119 wRC+ against them.
Kyle Manzardo Can Be a Great Late-Round Power Source https://t.co/7caUV2Fni4
— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) February 17, 2026
Manzardo still totalled 531 plate appearances last year, so there shouldn't be concerns about a strict platoon in 2026. Having a full MLB season under his belt, Manzardo should be able to take a further step forward with 30 home runs not being out of the question.
He should continue to be the Guardians' primary cleanup hitter and drive in a decent number of runs again this year. Even if Manzardo puts in a repeat of 2025, he's a corner infield option that has more upside than most other options after pick 200.
-- Jamie Steed - RotoBaller
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson enjoyed the best season of his young career in 2025. He tied a career high with 31 home runs while posting a personal best 11% walk rate (81st percentile) and 118 wRC+. Torkelson also increased his barrel rate from just 6.7% in 2024 to 13.5% (83rd percentile).
Similar to teammate Riley Greene, Torkelson has clearly sold out for power, setting career highs in both fly-ball rate and launch angle. Unfortunately, the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft does have a flaw, and that's his 26% strikeout rate (26th percentile). However, Torkelson is still only 26 years old and could continue to refine his approach in 2026, giving him a strong fantasy floor with legitimate 35-homer upside.
The Arizona native is locked into everyday playing time and is expected to hit fourth or fifth in the Tigers' lineup. In early drafts, Torkelson carries an ADP of 202 and is coming off the board as the 16th first baseman. You don't have to squint too hard to envision another 30 home run season with a .240 batting average and strong counting stats. At his current ADP, he is an excellent corner infield option in a 12-team league and a solid first baseman in a 15-team league.
-- Marty Tallman - RotoBaller
Who Should I Draft Fantasy Baseball Tool
Not sure who to draft? Use our free Who Should I Draft tool.
Compare up to four players and we'll tell you who to draft...
Using The Tool. This is a simple tool but very powerful. The first step is to enter the player names that you want to compare. In the first box, search for the first player name. In the second box, search for the second player name. Compare up to four MLB players at once, and then click the Who To Draft? button to see who the recommended draft picks are based on fantasy baseball rankings, projections and more.
Improvements For Who Should I Draft? We have lots of great features for you to give you as much information as possible to win your 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. You'll see MLB player tiles with stats and projections, ADPs, and news -- enhanced search results with data to compare, and a slick interface. We hope you enjoy!
How It Works. Our RotoBaller staff puts together their preseason fantasy baseball rankings and projections based on their research, and update it constantly throughout the preseason. That information is the core data that is powering the decision-making in this tool. When you search for player names, you will only see those players that are ranked.
Scoring Formats. Fantasy baseball managers play in various types of leagues, and this tool allows you to choose whether it's roto leagues (rotisserie) scoring, or points leagues scoring. The second thing you want to do, is to select the scoring format. There are two small radio buttons (small circle), so click on the scoring format you prefer. The results may vary based on the scoring format you select.
Popular Draft Searches. Curious to see some tough draft decisions for 2026? Below you will find a list of some popular Who Should I Draft? searches that RotoBaller readers are looking at, including recent trending player names who are seeing increases or decreases in their draft values. Click any of the links to see the results and recommendations.
Popular Player Comparison Searches - Who To Draft
Below are some popular searches and comparisons from our Who To Draft tool for 2026 drafts:
More Fantasy Baseball Analysis
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
