Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Breakouts: Cheap Later-Round Values With Upside

March 24, 2026

Pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts, draft values for 2026. Target these cheap later-round pitcher values who can have league-winning upside in 2026.

The fantasy baseball offseason is coming to an end as Opening Day is officially here! At RotoBaller, we provided later-round fantasy baseball draft pitcher sleepers, and we have a few more names to consider on draft day. Below you will find a few of our favorite late-round fantasy baseball pitcher sleepers and values - cheap later-round value picks for 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. And in case you missed it, you can also check out our previously published middle-round draft values and targets series broken down by position.

Today, we look at pitchers such as Aaron Nola, Cade Horton, Connelly Early, Tatsuya Imai, and Robert Garcia who potentially have late-round steals. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will these pitchers provide a big return on their draft day cost? The later rounds are where you can shoot for the moon and select players with league-winning upside, take a chance on an injured star, or even an emerging top prospect. Below are some late-round options who could pay off and be a tremendous value.

The five fantasy baseball pitcher outlooks for 2026 below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. Be sure to save 30% on any MLB Package today to start reading all of our in-depth 2026 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more. Let's win some leagues in 2026!

Cheap Later-Round Pitchers With Upside

Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola is coming off one of the worst seasons in his 11-year career with the Phillies, with a 6.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts in 94 1/3 innings pitched. Nola dealt with a lingering ankle injury that kept him out for over three months, and he clearly was not able to get right throughout the season. While his underlying numbers show room for positive regression (4.13 xERA, 3.81 SIERA, and 3.71 xFIP), he never found a groove during the 2025 season, and it's difficult to suggest that he can surpass anything but his career average at this point (3.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP).

On the bright side, he still induced an excellent 33.5 percent chase rate (93rd percentile) and a slightly above-average 24 percent strikeout rate and 25.2 percent whiff rate. Nola is now 32 years old and projected to be the Phillies' No. 3 starter behind Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. The former 2014 first-round pick will look to rebound in 2026, but there aren't many data points showcasing that he will turn back the clock to his elite form, as RotoBaller ranks him as SP61, while NFBC ADP ranks him 209.0 overall. At this point in his career, he may be looked at as more of an innings eater and work deep into ball games, assuming he can limit the loud contact.

-- Nicho Roessler - RotoBaller

Cade Horton, SP, Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs right-hander Cade Horton went 11-4 with a 2.67 ERA across 118 innings pitched as a 23-year-old rookie, but his 3.89 xERA and 4.27 xFIP suggest he wasn't anywhere near that good. The primary issue was his 20.4 K%. Horton would probably struggle if his 20.4 K% repeats, but his peripherals support a much higher number. Horton's lowest K% on the farm was 27.2 percent in 18 IP at hitter-friendly Triple-A in 2024, so he has a history of generating punchouts. He also has two wipeout offerings in his slider (19 SwStr%) and change (21.5 percent), with his curve (12.4 percent) and sinker (8 percent) generating solid whiffs last season as well.

Here's a look at the pitchers who saw their ERA improve by 50 points (0.050) in the 2nd half compared to the 1st half (min. 50 innings). These pitchers had a mixture of luck and skills in their favor.

Notable pitchers include:
-Brady Singer
-Cade Horton
-Dylan Cease
-Gavin… pic.twitter.com/vNrzYj6QHl

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) March 24, 2026

Horton's heater (4.9 SwStr%) let him down, but its 64.9 Zone%, 95.5 mph average velocity, and 2,485 RPM spin rate suggest upside. His K% should improve in 2026. Likewise, Horton's .258 BABIP was at least partially the result of Chicago's league-leading 36 Outs Above Average. The Cubs should be strong defensively again, so Horton's low BABIP could repeat. The Cubs should provide win opportunities, too, making Horton an exciting upside play at his 188 NFBC ADP.

-- Rick Lucks - RotoBaller

Connelly Early, SP, Boston Red Sox

The 2025 season saw several Boston pitching prospects break out in the minor leagues, with Payton Tolle and Connelly Early both seeing time with the Red Sox down the stretch. In Early's four starts with the big club, he posted an impressive 2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1% walk rate, and a 36.7% strikeout rate in 19.1 innings. This comes after a 2.60 ERA and a 31.9% strikeout rate in 100 1/3 minor-league innings.

Connelly Early has made the Red Sox Opening Day Roster!

The versatile southpaw enjoyed a productive cup of coffee to end the 2025 season and looked great this Spring with a 1.59 ERA and 2.50 FIP across 17.0 Innings. He is expected to start Game 3 of the regular season

Congrats! pic.twitter.com/3dim2CiqKh

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 24, 2026

Early uses a deep six-pitch arsenal, headlined by a mid-90s fastball, low-80s curveball, and mid-80s changeup. In his limited time with Boston, all six of Early's offerings had a whiff rate above 23%, with three above 30%. He's also shown above-average command of his arsenal with the ability to generate plenty of groundballs as well. The upside is here for Early to be a Top-40 fantasy starting pitcher this season, but there's plenty of competition for that fifth rotation spot in Boston.

-- Eric Cross - RotoBaller

Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen picked a bad time to have a career-worst season. As an impending free agent, Gallen posted career worsts in practically every category, including a 4.83 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 21.5% K rate, and 13.4% K-BB%. That's not the Zac Gallen we came to know and love, and instead of inking a lucrative multiyear deal this offseason, he wound up signing a one-year pact to return to Arizona. It seems like Gallen's collapse came out of nowhere after three straight years of a sub-3.70 ERA, but the cracks were starting to show in 2024. In 2024, his walk rate rose to 8.7%, and his K-BB% fell to 16.4%.

His fastball also started losing effectiveness in 2024, with a .282 AVG and .462 SLG against, along with plummeting chase and whiff rates. His fastball has lost movement and the shape has changed over the last few years (go to baseballsavant.com and compare his 2023 pitch movement profile to 2025), and now on the wrong side of 30, I don't know if Gallen can reverse these trends. The good news is that his curveball still appeared effective, with a 38.9% whiff rate and a .187 xBA and .255 xwOBA against. He was probably a little unlucky too, with a 67.6% LOB rate (career 74.9%) and a 14.6% HR/FB rate (career 12.1%).

The right move for Gallen is probably to take an old-man pitcher approach and throw his secondary stuff more frequently, with less reliance on a diminishing fastball. If he does that, he may be able to post respectable numbers, but his days of being a frontline starter are likely behind him. He can be had cheaply, going around pick 220 in NFBC leagues as he should bounce back a little from last season.

-- Elliott Baas - RotoBaller

Robert Garcia, RP, Texas Rangers

Veteran relief pitcher Robert Garcia was part of a closer committee last year with the Texas Rangers. In 71 games, Garcia registered a 4-8 record, 1.25 WHIP, 68 strikeouts, and a career-best ERA (2.95) with nine saves in a career-high 64 innings pitched. The 29-year-old also had a career-best BABIP of .299, which was due to incurring more pop-ups and fly balls, as evidenced by a career-high fly ball percentage of 32.0.

Texas manager Skip Schumaker confirmed that Garcia is one of the favorites to secure the closer role for the Rangers in 2026. ATC projections forecast Garcia to register 65 strikeouts, a 3-4 record, 1.23 WHIP, 17 saves, nine holds, and a 3.65 ERA in 61 innings pitched. Garcia has an NFBC ADP of 261. RotoBaller.com ranks Garcia at No. 241 overall and No. 30 among relief pitchers. As one of the top relievers on the Rangers, Garcia is a valuable fantasy asset in holds leagues. He is also a good late pick as a potential closer, when most of the other options to log consistent saves are off the board.

-- Sean Engel - RotoBaller

Who Should I Draft Fantasy Baseball Tool

Not sure who to draft? Use our free Who Should I Draft tool.

Who Should I Draft?

Roto Points

Compare up to four players and we'll tell you who to draft...

Who To Draft?

Reset

Choose From The Top Ranked Players

Overall

C

1B

2B

3B

SS

OF

SP

RP

Popular Searches

Overall

C

1B

2B

3B

SS

OF

SP

RP

Using The Tool. This is a simple tool but very powerful. The first step is to enter the player names that you want to compare. In the first box, search for the first player name. In the second box, search for the second player name. Compare up to four MLB players at once, and then click the Who To Draft? button to see who the recommended draft picks are based on fantasy baseball rankings, projections and more.

Improvements For Who Should I Draft? We have lots of great features for you to give you as much information as possible to win your 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. You'll see MLB player tiles with stats and projections, ADPs, and news -- enhanced search results with data to compare, and a slick interface. We hope you enjoy!

How It Works. Our RotoBaller staff puts together their preseason fantasy baseball rankings and projections based on their research, and update it constantly throughout the preseason. That information is the core data that is powering the decision-making in this tool. When you search for player names, you will only see those players that are ranked.

Scoring Formats. Fantasy baseball managers play in various types of leagues, and this tool allows you to choose whether it's roto leagues (rotisserie) scoring, or points leagues scoring. The second thing you want to do, is to select the scoring format. There are two small radio buttons (small circle), so click on the scoring format you prefer. The results may vary based on the scoring format you select.

Popular Draft Searches. Curious to see some tough draft decisions for 2026? Below you will find a list of some popular Who Should I Draft? searches that RotoBaller readers are looking at, including recent trending player names who are seeing increases or decreases in their draft values. Click any of the links to see the results and recommendations.

Popular Player Comparison Searches - Who To Draft

Below are some popular searches and comparisons from our Who To Draft tool for 2026 drafts:

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis