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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/4/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
After taking a funky little Thursday slate off, we are back today for a full slate of MLB action and five more first-inning bets!
Happy Independence Day, friends! I hope you enjoy some burgers, beers, and baseball today. We have a few afternoon games on the East Coast, so there's a chance to watch and wager on baseball games all day long!
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Friday, July 4, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable, as there's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 4, 2025)
- Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies: 1:05 pm
- L.A. Angels at Toronto Blue Jays: 7:07 pm
- Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves: 7:15 pm
- Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians: 7:10 pm
- San Francisco Giants at Athletics: 10:05 pm
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CIN: Andrew Abbott
- PHI: Jesus Luzardo
One of the best pitching matchups of the day takes place in a matinee in Philly, where two outstanding left-handed pitchers face off.
Andrew Abbott brings his 14-0 NRFI record into today's matchup with the Phillies, who counter with Jesus Luzardo (12-5).
Andrew Abbott, Vicious 83mph Sweeper. 😤 pic.twitter.com/czIrUB0ifk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 28, 2025
Abbott has been so good this year that even a tough matchup with the Phillies' offense isn't enough to prevent me from backing him. As far as Luzardo goes, he's had a few rocky starts lately, which worries me a bit more. But I have said this before: I like attacking the Reds with lefties better than righties as it flips their best hitter (Elly De La Cruz) over to his weaker split for that first-inning at-bat.
Luzardo has elite stuff; he just needs to establish control early and keep runners off base. I like his chances, as the Reds are hitting just .194 in the first inning over their last 10 games.
L.A. Angels at Toronto Blue Jays YRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- LAA: Kyle Hendricks
- TOR: Eric Lauer
Who is feeling frisky enough for a YRFI? The formula here is pretty simple. The Blue Jays are one of the hottest offenses in baseball and come in with some elite first-inning numbers lately. They are 5-5 on YRFIs over their last 10 games with a .333 batting average and .400 on-base percentage.
Addison Barger bashes a homer for the second straight game! 💥 pic.twitter.com/CTP46dkC9g
— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2025
The Jays will face Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed five YRFIs in 16 starts this season. I like Toronto's chances of pushing a run across in the first inning.
As far as the Angels are concerned, they have been pretty solid in the first inning on offense lately, too, with a 4-6 YRFI record over their last 10. I like Eric Lauer as much as the next person, but he will face some excellent right-handed bats in the first inning between Zach Neto, Mike Trout, and potentially Taylor Ward (if the Angels can get at least one hitter on base). Jo Adell is red-hot, too, in the five-hole.
Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BAL: Charlie Morton
- ATL: Spencer Strider
Charlie Morton gets to take on his former team, and after an abysmal start to the season that saw him get removed from the rotation at one point, he now enters tonight's game as one of Baltimore's most reliable starters lately.
Morton is 9-3 on NRFIs this season and has a three-game NRFI streak coming into this one. The Braves have been scuffling at the plate, and that trend is evident in their first-inning results as they are just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last 10 games.
Spencer Strider had to remind Juan Soto where the pitch was after he struck him out.
(Via: @SNYtv)pic.twitter.com/zsta1X10t0
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) June 25, 2025
The Orioles also have a 1-9 YRFI record coming into today's contest and will have to face the fireballer, Spencer Strider, who has found his fastball velocity again and is buzzing through opponents. Strider is 7-2 on NRFIs this year and has an impressive five-game NRFI streak intact.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Reese Olson
- CLE: Slade Cecconi
Reese Olson returns from the IL and walks right into a highly favorable spot here against a Guardians offense that has been struggling mightily. Cleveland is just 1-9 on offensive YRFIs over their last 10 games, and they are dead last in wRC+ vs. RHP over the last 30 days.
Olson has a seven-game NRFI streak going and will look to keep that going tonight against this punchless Guardians lineup.
Cecconi has a tougher challenge against the Tigers' offense, which plated three runs last night in the first inning on the strength of a Spencer Torkelson home run. But Cecconi has been effective early this season, posting a 6-2 NRFI record, and has showcased some solid swing-and-miss stuff at times this season.
I like both of these young pitchers quite a bit. We just need Cecconi to avoid an early home run, and I think we can cash this NRFI tonight.
San Francisco Giants at Athletics NRFI (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SFG: Justin Verlander
- ATH: JP Sears
Why not attack some plus odds with our last pick? While neither of these pitchers is likely to inspire a ton of confidence at first glance, they have actually combined for a 26-4 NRFI record this season! Sears is 16-1, which is quite impressive considering his overall numbers are not very good.
Sears has performed better the first time through the lineup, with a 3.85 ERA, compared to 5.20 the second time through and 8.78 the third time through.
Verlander is 10-3 on NRFIs and has pitched fairly well since returning from injury. He did allow a first-inning run against the White Sox in his last start but shut them down over the next five frames.
The ballpark is a major challenge here, favoring the hitters, but that's also why we're getting such good odds. I'm going out on a limb and backing the pitchers based on their early-inning success while acknowledging it might be an uphill battle.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Padres (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Red Sox (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Tigers (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Red Sox (.429)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Red Sox (.508)
Conclusion: Fireworks on the Field – Let’s Cash Some NRFI Bets Today
Happy Fourth of July! As the grills fire up and the MLB slate goes full-throttle, there’s no better time to find value in the MLB NRFI betting market.
With five first-inning bets on deck, today’s card offers a strong mix of sharp pitching matchups and favorable early-inning trends. Whether you're riding elite arms like Spencer Strider or backing under-the-radar value plays like JP Sears, there’s plenty of opportunity for profit.
NRFI bets today remain the most consistent angle—even as hitting weather creeps in—so stay sharp, manage your bankroll, and enjoy the action from the first pitch.
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