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With the NBA season right around the corner, it’s time to start breaking down NBA teams and determining what you should expect from individual players on the team this year. Today, I’ll be breaking down the Minnesota Timberwolves and giving their lock, bust, and breakout fantasy player heading into the 2023-24 season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves finished this past season with a 42-40 record, which was good enough for the number eight seed in the Western Conference. Despite getting knocked out by the Denver Nuggets in five games during the first round of the playoffs, Minnesota did not go down easy against the eventual champions. The team did not make any significant roster changes in the offseason and will instead look to build on their 2022-23 season.
When determining a breakout player, I will include a player who has shown flashes but has yet to make a household name of themselves until this upcoming season. When determining a fantasy bust, I will talk about a player that has an average draft position (ADP) that is too high and should be avoided in drafts. Finally, when determining a fantasy basketball lock, it is someone who will dominate for the entire season and should be targeted over any other Timberwolves player in fantasy drafts.
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Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Jaden McDaniels
Jaden McDaniels has played three seasons with the Minnesota Timberwolves, where he has improved each year and become a somewhat viable fantasy option. The 23-year-old averaged 12.1 points and 3.9 rebounds with about a steal and block per game this past season. McDaniels also shot over 50% from the field and almost 40% from behind the arc. One thing he has consistently been great at is defense, as McDaniels received serious consideration to be on the 2022-23 NBA All-Defensive team.
While McDaniels is dealing with a calf injury right now, it is not expected to sideline him much into the regular season. The Washington product will start at small forward once again for Minnesota as they run with their double big-man lineup. The defensive impact will undoubtedly be there from McDaniels, but his increase in offensive usage is what will make him a fantasy steal. Getting up to double-digit shot attempts and around 15 points per game is what I would expect from McDaniels in his fourth year.
He is currently being drafted as the 105th overall player, according to Yahoo Fantasy rankings. This is too low in my opinion and the floor/ceiling he could provide makes him a much better pick than several others being drafted ahead. Several forwards are being drafted ahead of McDaniels that I am skeptical about, including Zach Collins, Daniel Gafford, and John Collins. The fourth-year forward offers a higher floor than all of these players and has a relatively high ceiling considering his traits. You should be targeting McDaniels in this part of your drafts.
Fantasy Basketball Bust: Karl-Anthony Towns
Karl-Anthony Towns is still one of the most skillful bigs in all of basketball. However, the changes that Minnesota has made over the past few years have only hurt the value of Towns. In the 29 regular season games that Towns played this past season, he averaged 20.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game on about 50/37/87 shooting splits.
It is evident that Anthony Edwards is the leader of the team now, and with Rudy Gobert playing center, it is much tougher for Towns to average the double-digit rebounds that he has throughout his career. The 27-year-old can still score with the best of bigs, but his ceiling is significantly lower than in past seasons, as he’s attempting fewer and fewer shots. While Towns will more than likely average over 20 points and nine rebounds per game, the upside is not there in comparison to those being drafted around him.
The ninth-year power forward is currently ranked as the 26th overall player, according to Yahoo Fantasy rankings. This is higher than he should be in my opinion and several players are being drafted after him that offer significantly higher ceilings. LeBron James, Lauri Markkanen, Paul George, Bam Adebayo, and Victor Wembanyama are just some of the forwards/centers being drafted behind Towns who offer higher ceilings. You should be avoiding the former first-overall pick, with the exception being that he drops significantly in the draft.
Fantasy Basketball Lock: Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards is in prime position to blow up this season. Edwards put up career-high averages in almost every category this past year, as he averaged 24.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, as well as ending with the third-most total steals in the league. The 22-year-old further showcased his incredible potential and talent with his performance in FIBA, as he solidified himself as the leader of the team.
There is no doubt that another jump is incoming for Edwards, as he is only progressing with all aspects of his game and has become an all-around better player with each year played. 2020’s first-overall pick out of Georgia will be a top player in this league for a very long time and this could be the year he enters superstardom. I would expect Edwards to get up to 27+ points per game and completely takeover this Minnesota Timberwolves team.
Edwards is currently being drafted as the 17th overall player, according to Yahoo Fantasy rankings. This is not a bad spot for Edwards as I would have him around 13-15 when it comes to overall rankings. While the floor may not be as high as some of the guys being drafted ahead of him, Edwards offers one of the highest ceilings for any guard in the league this year. You should be targeting the fourth-year player during the second round of every fantasy draft.
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