Relief Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Undervalued Closers and Saves (2026)

March 3, 2026

Andy Smith's favorite relief pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts and sleepers - undervalued closers and saves to target at the end of 2026 drafts at a discount.

Navigating saves is often the most difficult part of fantasy baseball. While there are players who are near locks to earn 30+ saves, like Edwin Diaz and Mason Miller, managers will have to pay a hefty price to acquire their services and take a hit at other positions. When you invest in an early-round closer, you are only providing a boost to one of the five standard categories, as they do not log enough innings to make a major impact in WHIP, ERA, and strikeouts.

However, there are several relief pitchers that pose just as much upside from a statistical standpoint and, more importantly, for the importance of earning double-digit saves. In this piece, we will spotlight five relief pitchers going past pick 130 in NFBC ADP (since February 1) who have the upside to become must-start relief pitchers on a weekly basis.

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Daniel Palencia, RP, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 133.8

The only player on this list going before pick 150 on current ADP is Chicago's Daniel Palencia.

Palencia began the season in a high-leverage role but typically pitched in the seventh and eighth innings while veteran Ryan Pressly was in the ninth. Over Palencia's first 15 2/3 innings, the right-hander posted a dominant 2.30 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and five holds, suggesting he is more than capable of taking the final frame.

From May 21 on, Palencia slowly took over the closer role and became a must-start option for fantasy. Over his next 37 innings, Palencia would hold a 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, with a 45:9 K:BB. He would tally 22 saves with one hold while only blowing two saves.

His underlying metrics were even more impressive and suggest the right-hander could flirt with a 30-save season. The 26-year-old placed in the 82nd percentile in xERA and averaged 99.6 mph on his four-seamer, placing in the 99th percentile among qualified pitchers.

He generated a stellar 4.4% barrel rate with a 28.4% K% (86th percentile) with above-average command, as evidenced in his 7.4% BB% (63rd percentile).

While his 39.7% ground-ball rate could be lower, as it placed him in the 37th percentile among pitchers, the elite defense behind him, led by Gold Glovers Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, newly acquired Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, can help limit any damage.

Palencia is primarily a two-pitch pitcher as he deploys his fastball 71.6% of the time and mixes in his slider 23.1% of the time, and occasionally a split-finger (4.6% usage). The fastball generated a solid .302 xwOBA with a 23.6% whiff rate. His slider posted a 39.4% whiff rate with .242 xwOBA, which is actually much lower than a .302 wOBA on the surface, suggesting there is room for growth.

While Palencia may seem risky to take as your RP1, he has top-10 upside given his breakout and a clear path to 30+ saves pitching on a contending club. Fade the top options at the position and snag Palencia, who has the path to tallying 30+ saves this season. Palencia is still being drafted after relief pitchers such as Carlos Estevez and Emilio Pagan, who have far worse underlying metrics.

Why draft Carlos Estevez at pick 145 when you can take Daniel Palencia almost two rounds later?

Estevez - 3.69 xERA, 20.1% K%, 8.2% BB%
Palencia - 3.26 xERA, 28.4% K%, 7.4% BB% pic.twitter.com/VUxAM5NwbE

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 19, 2026

Dennis Santana, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 163.2

With David Bednar now in New York, Dennis Santana figures to be the lone ninth-inning option in the Steel City for a Pirates team that looks surprisingly competitive heading into 2026.

While Santana's strikeout totals will likely be among the worst among "true" closers, he is extremely effective and could still provide high-end fantasy value in 2026. Once Bednar departed for the Bronx at the trade deadline, Santana took on all the save opportunities and did not disappoint

Over his last 25 innings, the right-hander posted a 3.60 ERA with a stellar 0.92 WHIP. He tallied 11 saves while only blowing two. During this stretch, Santana struck out 24 hitters while allowing just seven free passes.

Overall, he generated a 22.2% K%, placing him just below the average marks, and posted a cumulative 2.18 ERA and a sparkling 0.87 WHIP. He has elite command of his pitches, posting a 6.3% walk rate and generating a .236 wOBA, placing him in the top 3.0% of all pitchers.

After deploying his slider 32.3% of the time in 2024, he leaned on it during his breakout campaign last summer as he threw it 46.4% of the time. This pitch generated a stellar .238 xwOBA with a 35.3% whiff rate, a slight drop from the 41.8% whiff rate he posted in 2024. However, given its higher usage, managers should not be overly concerned with the drop in whiff%.

The increased use of his slider helped increase the effectiveness of his cutter, generating a career-best 31.4% whiff rate (10.4% deployed). If Santana increases the usage of this pitch even further, his strikeout totals could surely climb above the average marks.

Additionally, Santana generated an 18.4% Pull AIR%, which is still high, but it continued its gradual decline, dropping from 21.8% in 2024 and 26.7% back in 2023.

Santana was nearly a 20-save option despite only operating as the closer for approximately half of the season. With an improved team around him and minimal conception behind him, Santana could hit the 25-save mark with ease while providing elite ratios, especially in WHIP.

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 208.2

While the first two names are penciled in as the closers on their respective squads, the bottom three are not as definite. However, they possess immense upside and should claim the ninth-inning role sooner, rather than later.

Let's start in Tampa Bay with right-hander Griffin Jax. Jax was a high-end option in saves+holds leagues for several seasons when he was pitching with the Twins. From 2022 through 2024, Jax tallied 21.7 holds per season with a 3.06 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 241:56 K:BB over 208 2/3 total frames.

In 2025, Jax took a step back, posting a much higher 4.23 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. He began the season in Minnesota, where he continued to showcase elite strikeout upside, totaling 72 over 46 innings, but carried a 4.50 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. When he joined the Rays in the second half, he posted a slightly improved 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, with 27 strikeouts over a 20-inning stint.

However, there is much reason to believe Jax will return to his 2024 form and not only provide high-end ratios but also take over the closer role. This past summer, the 21-year-old generated a strong 3.26 xERA, nearly an entire point lower than his base ERA, suggesting he should see prominent positive regression.

Additionally, his primary whiff pitch, his changeup (22.3% usage), posted a career-best .199 xwOBA, and his sweeper (44.0% usage) generated an eye-catching 46.3% whiff rate, which was a slight increase from his 2024 mark.

However, what makes Jax even more intriguing is the recent injury to fellow ninth-inning option Edwin Uceta. Uceta, who is currently battling "cranky shoulder," recently underwent an MRI and is in serious danger of missing Opening Day.

Jax has posted a K% within the top-3.0% of all players over the past two seasons, and would hold top-15 upside among relievers if he were to fully claim the closer job. Even if Uceta were to return early in the season and split the role with Jax, his immense strikeout potential and high-end underlying metrics make him a steal at his current price.

You won't find any potential closer with this much strikeout upside at this point in the draft.

Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 177.5

Another ambiguous bullpen is in Milwaukee. While Trevor Megill took most of the ninth-inning opportunities last summer, he began to show some signs of decline late in the season, which could open the door for the setup man, Abner Uribe, to have some sneaky value.

Megill logged 47 innings to the tune of a 2.49 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP. He tallied 30 saves for the NL Central Champions. However, over his last nine innings (nine appearances), Megill posted a hefty 4.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, with three blown saves compared to just five converted saves. Prior to this skid, Megill held a 2.13 ERA with 25 saves and only three blown.

Under the hood, Megill generated a 3.23 xERA and allowed hard contact, with a 7.8% barrel rate and a 39.1% hard-hit rate. His 8.9% walk rate placed him below the league's mark, and it was the highest of his career.

His primary pitch is his fastball (60.7% usage), which generated a modest .337 xwOBA under the hood with a low 20.6% whiff rate. This is a stark jump from the .289 xwOBA it posted back in 2024.

Enter Uribe. Uribe racked up an elite 38 holds with seven saves while logging 751/3 innings to the tune of a 167 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Outside of his command, Uribe placed in the near 90th percentile or higher in all pitching metrics on Baseball Savant. Even with his higher 9.1% walk rate, his WHIP was still elite given his effectiveness.

Uribe generated an elie .260 xwOBA (top-6.0% of the sport) with an 86.2 mph average exit velocity (top-4.0% of the sport).

While Megill will likely begin the season as the closer, if these late-season struggles begin to show themselves once again, the Brewers will waste little time turning to their elite eighth-inning man. Managers looking for a high-upside option at the position should prioritize Uribe near pick 200. Once Uribe claims the closer role, he could be in store for a massive breakout season.

Kirby Yates, Los Angeles Angels

ADP: 361.9

Rounding out this list will be a player that may go undrafted in shallower leagues. Kirby Yates was a league-winner back in 2024 when he tossed 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 33 saves for the Texas Rangers. This dominant showing earned him a contract with the reigning World Series Champion Dodgers.

While his season started off well, as he held a 2.95 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a 31:5 K:BB over his first 18 2/3 frames, hamstring and lower back injuries derailed the remainder of his campaign. He would finish the season with an underwhelming 5.23 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 41 1/3 innings.

However, with a full offseason and a change of scenery, Yates carries some sneaky value in the final rounds. In fact, his underlying metrics remained quite strong and suggest he should face little trouble earning saves in the Angels bullpen.

In the first half, his fastball ( 57.7% usage) generated an xwOBA below .310 in each of the first four months before skyrocketing in the second half. Additionally, it maintained a similar velocity to 2024 (92.8 MPH - 92.3 MPH) and finished the season with a 35.3% whiff rate, a 0.3% jump from his dominant season.

His split finger (42.3% usage) posted an elite 35.3% whiff rate with a modest .324 xwOBA. However, after a full offseason, this pitch should return to the sub-.300 xwOBA it generated back in 2024.

With Ben Joyce (shoulder) and Robert Stephenson (shoulder) both delayed to start camp, Yates' only true competition will be Jordan Romano, who is coming off an 8.23 ERA season.

Yates is the most underrated and undervalued player at his position and has a viable path to 25+ saves this summer. Yates is the perfect RP3 to target with one of your last selections and is poised to enjoy a "re-breakout" in Los Angeles.

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