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Dennis Sosic makes predictions about three tight ends who will bust for 2021 fantasy football leagues. These TE options are overvalued in fantasy drafts based on ADP.
What will be your tight end strategy in your upcoming drafts? Do you punt the position and play the streamer game all season? Do you grab one of the elite TE early and secure that position on your roster for the entire season?
Any strategy you employ will obviously depend on if the draft falls to your liking. If it doesn't, fantasy managers will have to determine which guys to go after and hope that they hit. Whether you grab the stud early or play the tight-end roulette streamer game, fantasy managers need to avoid busts at a position filled with multiple pitfalls.
Let's take a look at three tight ends who fantasy managers should avoid as I provide my three tight end bust predictions for the 2021 season.
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Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts has to be the most-hyped prospect entering the NFL that I can remember. A can't-miss generational talent and potential game-changing superstar. However, let's remember Kyle Pitts has not even played a down in the NFL yet.
He possesses an elite combination of size with his 6-foot-6 and 245-pound frame and 4.44 speed with a whopping 83-inch wingspan and his youth. He is only 20 years old and screams like a super prospect with freakish athletic ability and the ultimate nightmare matchup at the TE position. Simply, the best tight end prospect ever.
Pitts was dominant in his eight games for the Florida Gators in 2020. He had 43 receptions on 67 targets for 770 yards and 12 touchdowns. The 2020 John Mackey Award winner revised the SEC record book and will be a problem in the NFL.
Pitts was drafted fourth overall by the Atlanta Falcons in the 2021 NFL Draft. That's the earliest a tight end has ever been drafted. There is no doubt he will be a superstar in the league, BUT I'm not betting my fantasy fortunes on the rookie tight end this season.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
There is a long history of rookie tight ends being fantasy busts. While I won't go so far as to say Pitts will be a complete bust, there is no doubt he is being overdrafted. His current ADP is fourth among tight ends in PPR formats, which is at his ultimate ceiling. That is a hefty price to dish out for the first-year tight end.
Yes, I realize that there are 195 vacated target opportunities for the Falcons this season. However, with Julio Jones now with the Tennessee Titans, Pitts' door is wide open to make a huge fantasy impact this season. Plus, Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense will need to adjust to the play-calling of new head coach Arthur Smith.
His current ADP places Pitts among the elite among tight ends, but the transition for Pitts from college to the NFL will be a hurdle that should overshadow the extreme hype.
Fantasy managers should never select players at their ceilings and should temper the lofty expectations. While drafted and listed as a tight end, Pitts will be their second wideout to Calvin Ridley taking over the WR1. The team's tight end will be Hayden Hurst, who is a sneaky sleeper selection. In addition, wide receiver Russell Gage and running back Mike Davis will get looks in this offense while defenses focus on Ridley and Pitts.
The bottom line is that fantasy managers will not receive fantasy value by selecting Pitts as a top-five tight end. Dynasty managers should jump all over Pitts, but Pitts will bust for fantasy managers expecting to reach the highest of ceilings.
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
Robert Tonyan was a waiver wire league-winner for fantasy managers last season. Tonyan entered last season with only 14 career receptions, but he recorded 11 touchdowns on 59 targets. His 11 touchdowns scored in the regular season tied a position high with Travis Kelce.
Tonyan came out of nowhere to finish as the TE3. He had 52 catches for 586 yards, catching a ridiculous 88.1% of his targets with an absurd 21.2% TD rate.
Even with Aaron Rodgers returning to the Packers, regression is looming for Tonyan. Tonyan reached his fantasy ceiling last season. The Packers added more weapons for Rodgers by bringing back wide receiver Randall Cobb and drafting wideout Amari Rodgers.
Even with Aaron Rodgers returning to the Green Bay Packers, Robert Tonyan could see his fantasy prospects fall significantly.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Fantasy managers know that touchdown success is fickle. Tonyan will remain a weapon in the Packers' offense, but his success rate is unsustainable. He will be fantasy-relevant, but drafting Tonyan as the TE9 this season is asking for disappointment.
A deeper dive into his numbers suggests that his luck in scoring 11 touchdowns overshadowed his overall numbers. He managed to go over 50 yards four times. Tonyan only had two games where he had six or more targets. He scored a touchdown in nine different games, with his only multiple touchdown game achieved in Week 4.
Coincidentally, his numbers were inflated by his Week 4 breakout performance when he caught six passes for 98 yards and three touchdowns. In Week 4, the Packers were forced to play the Atlanta Falcons without their top two wideouts in Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. As a result, Tonyan capitalized on being one of the few healthy weapons in the Packers offense.
Tonyan also only averaged 40 snaps per game which ranked 18th among tight ends. So there were limited snaps for Tonyan to succeed, yet he still delivered somehow at an alarming rate.
Robert Tonyan had his breakout season in 2021 in which can be best defined as touchdown or bust. My projection for the Packers' tight end this season is that he will bust, especially at his draft capital.
Evan Engram, New York Giants
There are few players that I try to avoid in all of my drafts. One TE that I avoid at all costs is New York Giants tight end Evan Engram. Engram is full of disappointment. Every season, it seems that he is on every sleeper list, hoping that Engram actually lives up to his potential one season. Potential is a scary word in fantasy football.
Since his impressive 2017 rookie campaign in which he recorded 64 receptions for 722 yards and six touchdowns, fantasy analysts have been enamored with Engram. However, he continues to disappoint.
Last season, he managed only one receiving touchdown even though he led the Giants with 109 targets. However, he did finally play a full 16-game season which is a surprise concerning Engram has missed 14 games in his career due to injuries.
Engram is not a factor within the red zone that attributes to scoring only seven touchdowns combined over the past three seasons. Maybe it's because he is not a reliable weapon considering he led all tight ends with 11 dropped passes last season.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Somehow there are still believers in Engram, but his ceiling is capped in the Giants offense. First of all, quarterback Daniel Jones is a wildcard. Jones is still trying to prove that Giants GM Dave Gettleman was correct in selecting Jones as the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Up to this point, Jones has not lived up to his draft selection. He makes horrible decisions with the ball, and I don't believe the new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett will assist in his development.
The Giants tried to improve the surrounding weapons around Jones by signing wide receiver Kenny Golladay to be the team's WR1. In the first round, they drafted Florida wideout Kadarius Toney, which upgraded a solid group of pass-catchers.
However, the one acquisition that seems to be overlooked is former Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph, a reliable weapon for Kirk Cousins and should prove to help Jones in the red zone. Unfortunately, all of the added weapons, along with the return of Saquon Barkley does not paint a rosy picture for Engram's fantasy success in 2021. Kaden Smith even outperformed Engram for the most part last season and could usurp his snap share.
Engram will have lesser opportunities this season by virtue of fighting for targets. As a result, he will be less of a factor in the passing game, and it would be easy to project that we could see another career-low in YPG (40.9 in 2020).
This opinion was written before Engram suffered a calf injury in the final preseason game. Although the outlook is not yet clear, it stands as another reason no one should be drafting Evan Engram as their starting tight end in 2021.
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