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Frank looks at three starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers who are on the rise. Are Cal Quantrill, Zebby Matthews, and Grayson Rodriguez for real?
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another edition of our Breakout Starting Pitcher Series. Every week of the fantasy baseball season, we look at three pitchers who are in a nice rhythm and determine whether these pitchers can sustain their recent strong production.
For this week, we will look at three red-hot pitchers. Each of these pitchers has found a nice rhythm recently, beginning to emerge as reliable fantasy options. They're pretty widely available across all formats, rostered in fewer than 40% of Yahoo leagues, so you'll be able to pick them up. We're now in the stretch run, so every move carries added weight.
This list includes three names that can be easily picked up, including a veteran right-hander, a young pitcher finding his groove, and an oft-injured former Oriole coming off a strong start. This week, let's take a look to see if Cal Quantrill, Zebby Matthews, and Grayson Rodriguez are for real and can continue to provide high-end fantasy value.
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Cal Quantrill, Texas Rangers
35% Rostered (Yahoo)
Cal Quantrill has been a dependable innings-eater when he's at his best, and that's exactly what he's providing for the Rangers right now. The 31-year-old righty currently has a 2.90 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with a 17.3% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate in 83.2 innings. While the strikeouts are virtually non-existent, you have to like the elite command.
Quantrill has been quite impressive lately. In his last five starts, he has a 0.89 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP with a 23.9% strikeout rate and a 4.3% walk rate in 30.1 innings. It's intriguing to see this uptick in strikeouts, as Quantrill has racked up 5+ K in three consecutive outings.
The advanced metrics indicate that negative regression is likely to come soon, as highlighted by a 4.41 SIERA, but we're talking about a veteran pitcher on a team in the thick of the playoff race. He's firing on all cylinders right now, and could provide you with a solid source of wins moving forward.
Let's dig a little deeper to dive into Quantrill's pitch mix:
Quantrill has a diverse arsenal of five pitches, including a sinker (26.1%), cutter (25.2%), splitter (22.7%), four seamer (21.7%), and curveball (4.3%). The Rangers are having him lean into the sinker (+4.0%) and cutter (+3.4%), and splitter (+1.8%), and four seamer (+6.7%), while cutting down on the usage on his curveball (-7.3%).
It's worth noting that he's scrapped the slider (8.4% usage last year), which makes sense because that pitch was crushed, inducing a .537 xwOBA.
Quantrill's sinker (.260 xwOBA) and splitter (.276 xwOBA) have been his most effective pitches. Last year, both his sinker (.375 xwOBA) and splitter (.311 xwOBA) weren't nearly as effective, so this is notable.
It seems that the Rangers have made the right adjustments to allow Quantrill to be more productive for them. Sure, there won't be much strikeouts, but he can help your ratios while he's in a rhythm like this. Pick him up to see if he can keep this run going.
Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins
18% Rostered (Yahoo)
Zebby Matthews was once an intriguing prospect, but he's lost some of that shine over the last two years. This season, Matthews is putting up a 4.86 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with a 20.1% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate in 103.2 innings.
The underlying metrics indicate that Matthews deserves a bit better, as highlighted by a 4.21 SIERA. We saw some encouraging signs in that regard in last night's start against the Athletics, where he went seven innings, allowing one run on six hits with one walk and seven strikeouts.
Getting it done like he did last night in a hitter-friendly environment like Sutter Health Park should definitely get your attention.
Over Matthews' last two starts, he's allowed two earned runs in 12.2 innings with an 11-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. There's a reasonable chance that he's starting to find a rhythm.
Like the Rangers, the Twins are in the thick of the playoff race, so there should be opportunities for Matthews to rack up some wins for you.
Let's take a look at his pitch mix to see if there are any notable changes:
Zebby has a diverse arsenal of six pitches: a four seamer (36.4%), slider (22.4%), changeup (12.7%), curveball (12.2%), cutter (11.1%), and sinker (5.3%).
This season, he's trimmed his four seamer (-4.8%), slider (-2.9%), and cutter (-1.8%) while increasing the usage on his changeup (+2.1%), curveball (+6.4%), and sinker (+1.0%).
It's interesting to see such a bump in usage for his curveball, which makes sense because it's been highly effective, inducing a .203 xwOBA and a 35.4% whiff rate. If this can continue, it definitely raises Matthews' ceiling for strikeouts.
Combined with the slider that has a .261 xwOBA and a 35.7% whiff rate, Matthews has a pair of weapons to rack up strikeouts, making him a little more intriguing than someone like Quantrill.
The biggest problem here is that Matthews continues to allow a ton of hard contact, as highlighted by an 11.2% barrel rate, which ranks in the 5th percentile, per Baseball Savant. With that flaw, there's always going to be risk of a blowup start.
But with Matthews on a roll right now, he's definitely worth a look.
Grayson Rodriguez, Angels
7% Rostered (Yahoo)
Grayson Rodriguez was once considered the consensus top prospect in baseball. But after injuries and disappointing performances, he's no longer viewed as an intriguing option. After getting traded to the Angels for Taylor Ward, even less so.
But I'm here to show you that Grayson may be worth a look after his recent performance.
Looking at the season-long numbers won't inspire much confidence, as Grayson has a 6.41 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP with a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate in 66 innings.
However, his 4.57 SIERA is much lower than his 6.41 ERA, so he deserves better results than what we've seen so far.
The Angels' right-hander is coming off a strong outing against the Astros, where he went seven innings, allowing five hits and two unearned runs with two walks and six strikeouts.
Grayson has now racked up 31 strikeouts in his last five starts, spanning 27 innings. Perhaps he can build off that strong outing in a tough matchup against the Astros, providing you with strikeout upside for the rest of the way.
Let's dive into his pitch mix to check under the hood:
Grayson relies on four pitches, primarily a four seamer (53.9%), followed by a changeup (23.9%), slider (11.5%), and curveball (10.6%). The Angels have gotten him to lean into his four seamer (+6.2%) and changeup (+2.9%) more, while reducing the usage on his slider (-4.3%) and curveball (-4.9%).
The four seamer hasn't been nearly effective as when we last saw him in 2024. It's gone from a 27.0% to 16.8% whiff rate and .320 to .382 xwOBA. The good news is that the velocity is still at 96.1 MPH, so maybe this is just the case of a pitcher needing time to find his groove after such an extended absence.
On a positive note, you have to like how both his changeup (36.6% whiff rate) and slider (35.7% whiff rate) have been major weapons for him. Having two pitches with 35+% whiff rates gives him a lot of strikeout upside.
While we can expect some volatility with limited opportunities for wins, it's not a bad idea to give Grayson a shot to see if he gets in a groove. We've seen it with his teammate, George Klassen, so we can't underestimate good stuff when it comes to fantasy value.
I'd pick up Grayson to see where he goes, especially if you're in a deeper league.
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