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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/14/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on the Home Run Derby!
The All-Star break provides players, fans, and even writers like us with some time away from the game and a chance to recharge our batteries before the dog days of Summer.
However, one of the biggest draws of the All-Star experience in recent years is the annual Home Run Derby. There's a loaded field this season with a good mix of some exciting young hitters and some veterans, including Matt Olson, who will be the crowd favorite as he plays for the home team in Atlanta. Why not make some wagers on the outcome tonight to make an already fun event even more compelling to watch?
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from the Home Run Derby contest on Monday, July 14, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind. Let's have some fun with these!
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/14/2025)
Here are all the props I will cover for the Home Run Derby.
Matt Olsen to make the Semifinals (+106 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Let's cover a few quick items about how the Home Run Derby works. Last season, MLB introduced a system where all eight hitters compete against each other for four spots in the semifinals. They are then seeded 1 through 4 and matched up against each other in the second game (1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3).
As I mentioned in the opener, Olsen will be in his home stadium, Truist Park, where he's hit 62 home runs in the regular season since he came to Atlanta in 2022.
Truist Park favors left-handed power hitters and was built when Freddie Freeman was still hitting cleanup for Atlanta. It's the seventh-best venue in baseball for left-handed home runs over the last three seasons, while it ranks just 13th for right-handed homers.
So lefties have an advantage here, and that will be a theme with some of my picks.
MATT OLSON, GRAND SLAM 🔥
It's a 7-run 6th inning for the @Braves! pic.twitter.com/MwwolnUVMB
— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2025
I also think the veterans have a bit of an advantage, too, as it's easy for the younger guys to get caught up in the hype of the event and overswing or overthink things a bit.
Olsen is plus money to advance to the second round and is a tried and true home run hitter with the backing of the home crowd. I don't think he will win it, but I like his chances of getting out of the first round.
James Wood (+350) or Byron Buxton (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook) to hit the longest home run.
James Wood may be a popular pick to win it all tonight, but I'm not going that route as he simply doesn't have the home run swing or stats (mainly launch angle and pull rate) I am looking for (more on that later). However, when he does crush a baseball, it goes a long, long way.
Wood has a 451-foot moonshot on his resume this season and the longest average HR distance of any of the participants at 411 feet.
James Wood leaves us speechless 😮
This majestic shot just went 451 feet 💥 pic.twitter.com/FTb9nIRVfm
— MLB (@MLB) June 22, 2025
Wood is one of the most physically imposing hitters you will see at the dish tonight, standing 6-foot-7 and weighing 235 pounds. Wood has the fifth-best exit velocity of anyone in baseball this season, as he hit a ball 117.9 mph. The only other competitor tonight who has hit one harder in a game is Oneil Cruz (another fade for me in the overall competition based on his launch angle) at 122.9 mph.
Buxton, who has 21 home runs at the break, trails Wood in average HR length by only one foot at 410. His average was certainly helped out by this massive 479-foot shot that is the second-longest bomb in all of MLB this season.
479 FEET!
BYRON BUXTON LAUNCHES ONE WAY OUT! pic.twitter.com/RfVlPgFdkg
— MLB (@MLB) June 12, 2025
Buxton has a smooth, effortless stroke and the type of batspeed to generate such incredible contact. He is finally healthy and has been on a tear in June and July, clubbing 11 home runs since June 1st and hitting well over .300. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he launched the longest home run tonight either.
By betting on both players, we are expending two units, but if Wood hits, we win four and a half units total for a profit of two and a half units. If Buxton hits, then we win five units total for a profit of three units.
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Cal Raleigh to win the HR Derby (+300 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Is it boring to bet on the favorite to win? Maybe, but is it fun to win money and not lose money? Yes! I am all in on "The Big Dumper," Cal Raleigh to take home the title tonight, and it goes beyond just the fact that he leads all MLB hitters in homers (38) coming into the break.
“Big Dumper” climbs to the top of the latest AL MVP Poll 💪 pic.twitter.com/hjxeRI5j5O
— Talkin’ Basabell (@TalkinBasabell_) July 2, 2025
We are going to start checking some boxes. I said I liked lefties in this competition. While Raleigh has stated he intends to hit from both sides of the plate tonight, I think he ends up hitting left-handed in the semi-finals and finals when it matters most, as he knows that the park favors LHH. Raleigh has also hit 22 of his 38 home runs from the left side of the plate, though his power stats are all better on a per-at-bat basis from the right side.
I also like bigger guys in this competition, so we are ruling out Jazz Chisholm, Junior Caminero, and even Cruz (who is tall, but not all that meaty). If you look at the last derby winners, you can see they were all thicker, sturdier guys (Teoscar Hernandez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton).
But the stat that seals the deal for me is AIR Pull%. For those who are not familiar, this is a Statcast metric that simply measures how often a hitter pulls the ball in the air. The vast majority of home runs are both pulled and fly balls. We want hitters who pull the ball and also elevate it, which is why I am not into Cruz or Wood, despite their elite exit velocity.
Who do you think leads MLB in Air Pull% so far this season? That's right, Mr. Cal Raleigh, with a whopping 37.6%. None of the other competitors comes even close with the several guys in their mid-20s and others even further down.
Raleigh's home runs look easy, and if he brings that same approach to the plate tonight and doesn't change his stroke or approach at the plate from what he usually does, I think he can win it. If you want a fun narrative to root for, then also consider that his dad (a college coach) is the one who will be pitching to him! I don't know about you, but when I was taking batting practice in Little League, no one knew where I liked the ball more than my old man!
Good luck if you are tailing these bets today, and remember to bet responsibly! Enjoy the All-Star break and festivities!
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