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Justin's top NCAA Tournament betting picks and best bets for today's college basketball games on 3/28/23. His free picks for the Round-One March Madness games.
The Sweet 16 is here! It’s always exciting to get back into the madness, and these first couple of rounds have already been wild.
There is much to consider while running through some games in the Sweet 16. Favorites taking care of business, upset potential, and over/under are the beautiful aspects of what makes the NCAA Tournament sport's most chaotic event. Many of these matchups are unfamiliar, presenting exciting and new elements for each team.
In this article, you can find some of my favorite picks for the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 28th, and Friday, March 29th, 2024. Check out our other NCAA/NIT Tournament articles, as we will offer picks and DFS suggestions throughout the tournament. Find me on Twitter here.
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UConn (1) vs. San Diego State (5)
6:39 PM (TBS/truTV)
Line: UConn -10.5 vs SDST
Set at a reasonable line, UConn is given nearly 11 points in the Sweet 16 matchup against San Diego State. The Huskies have shown no mercy this tournament, as they have won their first two games with an average 28-point differential. On all platforms, UConn has played just as dominantly as the numbers show and is currently the clever favorite to win the title. UConn arguably has the best all-around roster and is led by talented guard Tristen Newton.
This time of year, it's UConn against the world. #MadeForMarch | #MixForSix pic.twitter.com/eMR1guvUtL
— UConn Men's Basketball (@UConnMBB) March 22, 2024
The Aztecs had a successful regular season. They ended the conference tournament with a 24-10 record and finished fifth in the Mountain West conference. The defense has been a critical factor for the Aztecs this season, as they have allowed just an average of 66.3 points per game, ranking 8th in efficiency. San Diego State, however, has put on an offensive display. They will play against UConn, which ranks 2nd in the nation according to KenPom.
In a game I don’t think will get close, I believe the well-rounded Huskies will again see a win soon and cover the spread. UConn wins by double-digits and moves on to the Elite Eight.
The Pick: UConn -10.5 (ESPN Bet)
Iowa State (2) vs. Illinois (3)
9:09 PM (TBS/truTV)
Line: Iowa State -1.5 vs IL
The most exciting line on the slate is Iowa State being favored by 1.5 against Illinois. Iowa State has surprised many this season after finishing 27-7 after the conference tournament and second in the Big 12 standings. Iowa State has leaned on its terrific defense, which ranked first in the nation in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and has allowed just 61.3 points per game this season.
It’s interesting because Illinois is among the few teams that could cause Iowa State’s defense problems. According to KenPom, Illinois ranks first in the nation in offensive efficiency. Terrence Shannon Jr. leads the team in scoring with 23.3 points per game while shooting 48.1 percent from the field. Shannon will be the most talented player on the court and is nearly unstoppable when driving to the basket.
In a game that could come down to coaching, I see the Illinois Fighting Illini winning their Sweet 16 matchup over Iowa State in a game that will be low-scoring. In a mini upset, Illinois advances to the Elite Eight.
The Pick: Illinois +1.5 (ESPN Bet)
Purdue (1) vs. Gonzaga (5)
6:39 PM (TBS/truTV)
Line: Purdue -5.5 vs Gonzaga
Purdue and Gonzaga should be a great matchup, as the Zags have a chance to take down the first one-seed of the tournament. The line is currently set at -5.5 in favor of Purdue, closer than many may have expected, especially after seeing UConn’s line so high. Gonzaga is coming off of a flawless outing against Kansas, where they held the Jayhawks to just 24 second-half points and shot 60.3 percent from the field. The Zags had yet another fantastic regular season, finishing second in the WCC with a conference record of 14-2 while finishing second in the conference tournament.
Purdue also had a great season, finishing first in the Big Ten standings with a 17-3 record and had a collection of quad-one wins this year. The big question is how the Zags will stop Purdue’s Zach Edey. Edey has been one of the nation's best players and is expected to be once again crowned the National Player of the Year with a stat line of 24.5 points and 12.1 rebounds per game.
Zach Edey throws it down 💥pic.twitter.com/gsxYNB1KO8
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) March 23, 2024
This has all the makings of an exciting Sweet 16 March Madness game, and it should be fun to spectate. As mentioned earlier, Edey will be the best player on the court, and it will take some outstanding team defense from Zags to slow him down. Purdue may come out on top, but I have Gonzaga covering the spread.
The Pick: Gonzaga +5.5 (ESPN Bet)
Tennessee (2) vs. Creighton (3)
9:09 PM (TBS/truTV)
Line: Tennessee -2.5 vs Creighton
My favorite matchup on the slate ends the Sweet 16 weekend. Creighton and Tennessee will battle it out with the line currently set at Tennessee -2.5. Creighton survived a second-round scare after nearly defeating the Oregon Ducks in overtime but ended up winning by double-digits as Creighton was able to separate themselves from the Ducks. Tennessee is also coming off a competitive game where they nearly surpassed the Texas Longhorns, avoiding an early-round upset.
Looking at both rosters, it is no surprise that one team’s advantage depends on defense, while the other team leans on their scorers to get the job done. The Vols have played excellent defense all season and are ranked third in the country, according to KenPom. At times, Tennessee struggles to get the ball in the basket. As we’ve seen multiple times, the Vols can get cold and go on long, scoreless runs. Creighton, on the other side, has an incredible amount of firepower. Four of their five starters are averaging double-digits, and the duo of Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman has been fun to watch.
Surprisingly, I think Creighton can pull off the win, but it won’t be close. Creighton’s offense will be too much for Tennessee to keep up with, and Ryan Kalkbrenner will have an excellent defensive game for the Jays. Getting 2.5 points is a gift in this scenario, and Creighton will cover and win the game.
The Pick: Creighton +2.5 (ESPN Bet)
Next stop 🛫 The Motor City #GoJays x #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/7IiSvs2bkN
— Creighton Men’s Basketball (@BluejayMBB) March 27, 2024
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