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Sam Berger's first base (1B) fantasy baseball breakouts and draft value picks for 2024. He expects these 1B sleepers to return big value for fantasy baseball.
Major League Baseball season is just around the corner. The smell of freshly cut grass and ballpark hot dogs is in the air. What does that mean? It means that fantasy baseball drafts are fast approaching and it's time to prepare!
Who are the players in this year's drafts that will make the biggest impact at first base in 2024? Are those the guys you should target on draft day?
Today, we are going to talk about first basemen that will have breakout seasons in fantasy. The difference makers who will help you win the ultimate prize come season's end. But to make that happen, it all starts with your draft. To help you prepare, here are my top-three breakout stars at first base for 2024.
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Undervalued 1B for Fantasy Baseball Drafts
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox may not compile a lot of wins this upcoming season, but one thing they certainly have a lot of is young players on the rise. Perhaps the most likely of that group to produce significantly in 2024 is 24-year-old first baseman Triston Casas.
What does a fantasy stud first baseman physically look like? If you look it up in the baseball dictionary, you'll see a picture of Casas. The guy is massive, standing at 6-foot-4 and 252 pounds. Every team wants their corner infielder to be large in stature, and also huge with his ABs.
That's why this tailor-made baseball player is the perfect fantasy star in the making. I'll make No. 36 for the Red Sox my first breakout candidate of 2024.
Triston Casas 2024 projections:
.268/.371/.523 | 31 HR | 3 SB | .894 OPS
The kid does indeed “have it.”
Casas may legit already be the face of the franchise. Hits for power, takes walks, and has made tremendous strides since last year. Bigtime leader.pic.twitter.com/Q9iDrMvmNj
— G.G. (@ggeiss_mlb) February 22, 2024
Entering just his second full MLB season, high expectations in Boston were met in 2023, as the towering figure slashed .263, hit 24 HRs, collected 65 RBI, and a .856 OPS. Are these mind-blowing numbers? Of course not, but it showed the baseball world and fantasy managers that Casas knows what he is doing at the plate, and that the only place he is going is up.
What we saw last year was impressive, and it seems like the left-handed slugger is starting to figure things out at the major league level. Exciting news for fantasy owners as draft season is upon us. So where can and should you land the Sox youngster on draft day?
The majority of experts, including yours truly, have Casas slotted around the 95th overall hitter and the 10th-best first baseman coming off draft boards. This translates to a middle-round selection for the talented third-year player, and someone who has a very high ceiling in fantasy.
With all of that said, don't expect Matt Olson-type production in 2024, so set your expectations appropriately. However, you should see another season of 20-plus home runs, a solid average, and around 7o RBI. The best thing of all, Casas will bat behind Rafael Devers in the lineup, one of the best hitters in the game. That means he will see plenty of pitches he likes and plenty of pitches to demolish.
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
My second breakout candidate at first base in 2024 was not a difficult choice. Yet, another 24-year-old has emerged as a future young star and he's based in Detroit. His name is Spencer Torkelson.
Okay fine, maybe the former No. 1 overall selection by the Tigers in the 2020 MLB Draft hasn't exactly caught anyone by surprise when it comes to his potential star power. Additionally, hitting 31 HRs and collecting 94 RBI a season ago may lead some to say Tork has already established himself as one of the premier players in fantasy. Maybe. But for me, his ceiling hasn't yet been reached.
We spoke briefly about the Spencer Torkelson breakout in 24, some told me he already broke out last szn. My rebuttal to that would be we are looking for the batting average to go up and the K rate to drop this year🔥
Yesterday he laced a double 110.2 MPH EV🚀 pic.twitter.com/voFTwGc2a5
— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) February 28, 2024
Yes, with Tork, fantasy managers must be prepared to take the good with the bad. The good? He's going to provide power, and that's exactly what you want out of your left-sided corner infielder. The bad? He's going to strike out a lot, and not hit for average. In 2o23, the left-handed slugger struck out a whopping 171 times in 606 ABs. He also hit for just a .233 average and a less-than-desirable .758 OPS.
31 Days Until Opening Day!
Spencer Torkelson hit 31 home runs in 2023!
Going into the month of June, he only had 4 home runs. If he can maintain a similar pace for a whole season that he did from June-September last season he may hit 40+ in 2024.
pic.twitter.com/jVmzzh0Bxh— Griff (@deeptocenter) February 26, 2024
The point? If you decide he's your first baseman in 2024, make sure you are a patient person. He will frustrate you at times, but he will also thrill you with huge games and big numbers regularly throughout the year. He did collect 141 hits last year and scored a healthy 88 runs.
But don't expect Ricky Henderson-type numbers on the basepaths. The California native is slow as molasses, stealing only three bases in 2023. He's your traditional first baseman with power, and he's my second breakout candidate for the position in 2024.
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles
If you aren't lucky enough to have either Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers or Matt Olson of the Braves on your fantasy rosters this spring, don't panic. Yes, they are the two best first basemen in the game and also happen to be two of the best players in the game. However, some other solid options at this position will make plenty of sense for your teams this year, and will certainly offer you plenty of value.
One of those guys is Anthony Santander of the Baltimore Orioles. The Venezuelan made his MLB debut way back in 2017; however, the former Orioles Rule 5 2016 draft selection became an important part of the fantasy baseball landscape this past season.
Blessed to be in the middle of the new-look and powerful Baltimore lineup, Santander is in the perfect position in 2024 to explode fantasy-wise. He has protection all around him. Surrounded by infielder Gunnar Henderson and catcher Adley Rutschman, Santander will see plenty of pitches this summer. The Orioles surprised many last year, finishing in first place in the American League East with over 100 wins, thanks to an exciting and productive lineup.
Five Baltimore Orioles players made MLB's Top 100 List for 2024.
19 - Adley Rutschman
29 - Corbin Burnes
34 - Gunnar Henderson
73 - Kyle Bradish
86 - Anthony Santander pic.twitter.com/mKONPXkKTk— Dan Clark (@DanClarkSports) February 22, 2024
Santander also offers position versatility, as he can fill out your roster at either 1B or OF. His slash line last season was .257/.325/.472, and that was an improvement across the board compared to the previous two campaigns. He smashed 28 HRs and clubbed 41 doubles in 2023, and added 95 RBI and 81 runs to his resume.
His current ADP of 144.08 doesn't scream "breakout" or "star," but he has all the tools necessary to at least repeat his 2023 production. The 29-year-old is likely to produce in the power department once again and could come close to hitting 30 long balls and knocking in 100 runs.
There are no guarantees in life or fantasy, so don't expect an MVP-type season. However, if you fill out the remainder of your roster with some stars and complementary pieces, landing a guy like Santander after the big names are off the board could result in a deep playoff run and perhaps even a fantasy championship.
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