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Marty's starting pitcher fantasy baseball draft targets, sleepers, value picks with upside include Tatsuya Imai, Will Warren, Matthew Liberatore, and more.
Most fantasy owners will have their final draft this week. Whether you're in an NFBC Main Event or a home league with your college buddies, everyone needs pitching sleepers to round out their rotation. This article highlights four sleeper starters going after pick-170 in NFBC drafts (from March 1 through March 20).
When building your rotation in the early rounds, make sure you are balancing your ratios while accumulating a large number of strikeouts. At the end of your draft, that's the time to take as many high-upside arms as possible. These four pitchers offer significant upside without having to break the bank on draft day.
No matter how your draft goes this week, take a moment to really enjoy this time of year. There is no better time than draft season. If you have any questions or comments, please do not hesitate to reach out to me on X @Marty_Tallman. Always happy to help. Now, let's dive in!
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Tatsuya Imai, SP, Houston Astros
Recent ADP: 175
Tatsuya Imai will officially be an MLB rookie this year, but he’s far from inexperienced. The 27-year-old spent the past eight seasons pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, posting a 3.15 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate, and a 1.267 WHIP across 963 2/3 innings.
While the walk rate is admittedly concerning and something he’s actively working to refine this spring, Imai has a delivery that is likely to frustrate and confuse many batters. His unusual arm slot, paired with a fastball/gyro slider combination, should create a lot of uncomfortable at-bats. However, Imai isn't a gimmick. He's a power pitcher in the middle of his prime.
Imai's fastball sits around 97 mph, while his gyro slider moves in the “wrong” direction compared to traditional sliders, making it incredibly hard for the batter to recognize the pitch before it breaks. In NPB, his slider produced an elite 47% whiff rate, so it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that he's carrying a 35% strikeout rate in spring training.
Circling back to his walk rate, Imai has devoted much of the offseason to refining his splitter and changeup. The Astros believe consistent command of his secondary pitches could unlock his All-Star upside, and his hard work may already be paying off in spring training. Across six shutout innings in the Florida sun, Imai has seven strikeouts to only one free pass, and he's allowed just two hits.
Is it a small sample size? Of course. But in his first exposure to MLB-caliber hitters, Imai looks like he belongs. For 2026, Imai will get the ball every sixth day for Houston and is projected for a 4.25 ERA with a 13.5 K-BB%. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if the Astros' pitching development team takes his game to the next level. It's happened before.
The closest comparable is Yusei Kikuchi, and it's not because he's also Japanese. It's because he features a deceptive delivery with multiple release points, which can lead to inconsistency and a higher walk rate. All problems Imai has as well. In 2024, Kikuchi spent a brief stint with the Stros, and the coaching staff worked with him to refine his arsenal and command.
Over the final stretch of that season, Kikuchi thrived, posting a 2.70 ERA across 60 innings with 76 strikeouts against just 14 walks. If the Astros have similar success with Imai, he will far outperform his current draft price. Imai is a low-risk, high-upside pick who could immediately contribute to strikeouts and ratios.
Will Warren, SP, New York Yankees
Recent ADP: 300
The New York Yankees drafted Will Warren in the eighth round in 2021, and he already looks like a steal. In 2025, Warren posted a 24.1% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, and a 4.08 SIERA. He also maintained a 42.8% ground-ball rate. Warren mostly relies on a fastball, sinker, and sweeper combination, with the sweeper being his primary "out" pitch.
So far in camp, Warren has a 17.1 K-BB% with a 1.77 ERA across a MLB-leading 20 1/3 innings. The 26-year-old out of Southeastern Louisiana University is projected to be in the Yankees' starting rotation, but the question is for how long? At some point this summer, Gerrit Cole (elbow), Carlos Rodon (elbow), and Clarke Schmidt (elbow) will be back healthy, so there is a small possibility that Warren may get sent down to the minors.
However, if Warren builds off his 2025 campaign, he will give the Yankees no choice but to keep him in the rotation. For 2026, ATC projects Warren to hold a 4.28 ERA with an 8.9 K/9. With that said, if Warren continues to grow, he has the potential to be a top-30 fantasy starter.
Matthew Liberatore, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Recent ADP: 396
With a strong spring, Matthew Liberatore has emerged seemingly out of nowhere as a fantasy-relevant arm for 2026. Over four MLB seasons, Liberatore holds a 4.40 SIERA with a 18.9% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. However, Liberatore is not just pitching well in spring; he's actually changed his entire profile, and it's showing up in his stuff numbers and strikeout rate.
The left-handed Liberatore added a split-finger this spring, which gives him a much-needed weapon against right-handed hitters. The new pitch also helps his changeup and fastball play up more effectively by creating better separation. Another notable adjustment is his willingness to attack the zone. In camp, Liberatore looks a lot more confident on the mound as he's going right after hitters no matter the count.
Across 10 innings this spring, Liberatore holds a 2.70 ERA with a 35% strikeout rate and a 2.5% walk rate. The Cardinals also see his blossoming potential as they just named him the Opening Day starter. For 2026, Liberatore's ceiling is unknown, but if he just keeps some of the gains he's made in spring, he has a relatively high floor, plus the ability to throw over 150 innings.
It's safe to project Liberatore for a low 4.00s ERA, but don't be surprised if it's closer to 3.50 given the progress he has made.
Dustin May, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Recent ADP: 402
Not too long ago, Dustin May was being drafted as a top-50 starting pitcher with a ton of upside. Unfortunately, several elbow, shoulder, and even an esophagus injury have limited May to only 191 2/3 innings across five seasons. Last year, however, May threw a career-high 132 1/3 innings. While the results weren't great, his ability to stay healthy long enough to make 23 starts was encouraging.
That said, it’s not his 2025 campaign that has my attention; it’s what he’s shown in spring training. Across 11 2/3 innings, May has posted a 1.54 ERA with a 15.6% strikeout rate and a 0.94 WHIP. Although the strikeout numbers don’t immediately stand out, he’s made several under-the-hood adjustments that suggest these may be long-term gains.
Dustin May is ready for the 2026 season!
The sweeper specialist has added a tick of velocity this Spring and has comfortably sat 96-97 MPH in his starts. He is expected to open the year in the Cardinals rotation and has the stuff to make him effective pic.twitter.com/xPc0fLevD4
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 11, 2026
First, nearly a third of May's fastballs have been in the 97-100 mph range. Second, May has lowered his arm slot, which allows his fastball and sinker to play more naturally together instead of looking redundant. And third, he has altered his pitch mix. The 28-year-old from Texas is throwing his breaking stuff a lot earlier in the count, which is keeping hitters off balance.
Up until his most recent injury, May often relied on pure stuff rather than fully mastering the art of pitching. Now, instead of simply overpowering hitters, he’s mixing his pitches more effectively while maintaining elite velocity. With May entering the season fully healthy, he stands out as a no-brainer upside pick you can target with your final draft selection. And if it doesn’t work out, he’s an easy player to move on from.
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