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Justin's college football playoffs preview and strength of schedule analysis. His breakdown for all 12 teams, analyzing the path to the CFP National Championship Game.
Ranking All 12 College Football Playoff Teams By Toughest Paths To Win The National Championship
The College Football Playoff field is set, and not without controversy. Alabama is in with three losses while Notre Dame was jumped by Miami in the final standings despite being ranked ahead of the Hurricanes just a week prior.
Did the committee make the right call with Miami? Yes. Did the committee make the right call in leaving Notre Dame out? No. The two-loss Irish should have been in over the three-loss Crimson Tide.
Anyway, let’s not get lost in a rant about who got the final at-large bid. Instead, we’re going to look ahead at the playoffs and at the path to a national title for each team. Who has the easiest path? Who has the hardest one? Let’s rank them, beginning with the team whose journey to the championship game looks simplest.
12. Indiana
Last year, I ranked No. 1 seed Oregon as having the fourth-hardest path to the championship. The fact that byes went to conference champions made for a weird field, and Oregon did, indeed, suffer a quarterfinal loss, proving it had a very difficult path.
The committee has fixed that for 2025. Indiana, the No. 1 seed, has the easiest path to the championship game. Starting off with the winner of Alabama/Oklahoma should be easy-ish work. The Crimson Tide offense has been struggling lately, and Oklahoma…well, I’m just not scared of Oklahoma.
Then in the semifinals, Indiana avoids a rematch with Ohio State or a game against Georgia. This isn’t to say Texas Tech is a bad team or anything, as the Red Raiders rightfully earned a bye. But in a playoff environment, that’s the top seed that I’d rather face.
11. Texas Tech
No. 4 wasn’t a bad spot for Texas Tech to land. The Red Raiders get to sit at home for the first weekend of the playoffs, then take on the winner of James Madison/Oregon. Let’s be real here: that’ll be Oregon.
Out of the realistic quarterfinals opponents for the three non-Indiana schools, I think I’d rather play Oregon than Ole Miss, Texas A&M, or Miami. Maybe you could make an argument for preferring the winner of A&M/Miami, but it’s close.
More importantly, though, is that surviving that game sends Tech to the semifinals against (probably) Indiana. No offense to the Hoosiers, but I’d rather play them than Ohio State or Georgia, two teams whose coaching staffs have more playoff experience.
10. Georgia
Georgia gets the winner of Ole Miss/Tulane in the quarterfinals. If that’s Ole Miss, then the Bulldogs should have a big edge there, especially with the coaching situation in Oxford.
You could argue that Georgia’s path to the semifinals is slightly easier than Texas Tech’s because of the uncertainty around how Ole Miss will look without Lane Kiffin, but a semifinal showdown with Ohio State, the defending champions, is a bit scarier than a showdown with Indiana, even with the Hoosiers being the undefeated No. 1 seed.
9. Oregon
Oregon has to play an extra game over Ohio State, but the Ducks’ still have a slightly easier path to the championship game.
That begins with a meeting with No. 12 seed James Madison. The Sun Belt champions are only in the playoffs because Duke won the ACC, and that’s reflected by this game having the biggest spread of the first round, with Oregon sitting as a 21.5-point favorite at the time this was written.
Win that and the Ducks get to face what should be the easiest of the four bye teams, Texas Tech. Win that one, and you probably face Indiana. The undefeated Hoosiers will be favored there, but an Oregon upset isn’t out of the question at all.
8. Ohio State
Ohio State gets a first-round bye, but I think the Buckeyes have the toughest quarterfinals matchup, facing the winner of Texas A&M/Miami. Either you get a one-loss SEC opponent whose only defeat came to its biggest rival, or you get a Miami team that has a win over Notre Dame on its resume.
The reward for winning that game? Georgia! Maybe this isn’t the same Georgia team we’ve seen in the past, but the Bulldogs have wins over Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, and Alabama, avenging a regular-season loss to the Tide with a dominant 28-7 win in the SEC Championship Game.
7. Ole Miss
Ole Miss is heavily favored to make it out of the first round against Tulane, with the Rebels currently favored by 17.5 points. Even without Kiffin as the head coach, Ole Miss should roll there, easily advancing to the quarterfinals.
Things get a lot tougher from there, though. To make the title game, the Rebels would need to beat Georgia, then either Ohio State, Texas A&M, or Miami in the semifinals. That’s a nightmare, but at least Ole Miss has a relatively easy chance to make the quarterfinals.
6. Oklahoma
These next two teams have equally difficult paths, but Oklahoma’s journey is slightly easier because they’re likely the better team between themselves and Alabama. And I’m not just saying that because we have proof in the form of Oklahoma’s 23-21 regular-season victory. I also just think this Alabama team is down this year. No playoff team has more losses, and while Ty Simpson is a better quarterback than John Mateer from a skill perspective, Mateer might be playing better football at the moment.
Winning that game would then give Oklahoma a chance to move forward on the side of the bracket that’s theoretically easier, with the team having to beat Indiana and then likely either Texas Tech or Oregon. Not “easy,” but avoiding Georgia or Ohio State until the championship game helps.
5. Alabama
Alabama’s path is harder than Oklahoma’s path simply because Alabama has to beat a team that it’s already lost to this season. What’s changed between then and now, other than the fact that the Tide might actually look worse at the moment?
Beyond that, it’s the same path as Oklahoma. An Alabama/Indiana matchup sounds like a lot of fun, as it would pit two quarterbacks who are likely to be first-round picks in April against each other.
4. Miami
Like with spots five and six on this list, spots three and four are occupied by teams that play each other in the first round. I have Miami fourth because, like with Oklahoma, I think they’re the better team. Yes, A&M is a one-loss SEC team, but A&M didn’t play the toughest schedule.
Yes, the Aggies eked out a win over Notre Dame just like Miami did, but they didn’t face any of the SEC elites in conference play. The best team they faced was Texas, and the Horns won by that one fairly comfortably while Marcel Reed tossed a pair of interceptions. Still, it’s going to be a tough game, and the reward for winning is Ohio State, the defending champions. Then the reward for winning that is probably Georgia, another nightmare matchup.
3. Texas A&M
Miami might only be the No. 10 seed, but the Hurricanes are dangerous. Like A&M, the team beat Notre Dame early in the year, and the team destroyed a really good South Florida team a few weeks later. Yes, Miami lost twice, but one-score losses to really good Louisville and SMU teams are nothing to scoff at, and the team ended the season in style with a 38-7 road win over a Pitt team that was ranked at the time.
So, A&M has its work cut out. And like with Miami’s path, things get pretty nightmarish right after. The Aggies would be in so much better shape if they’d managed to beat Texas, as they’d likely still have one loss, but it would be to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, so A&M would probably be at least the fifth seed.
2. James Madison
How to rank James Madison and Tulane? I think it comes down to this: both teams are likely to lose in the first round, but James Madison’s path is slightly easier because an upset win over Oregon would lead to it facing Texas Tech instead of Georgia.
Not that an upset is likely. The Oregon game has the biggest spread of the first round for a reason, but in the unlikely scenario that the Dukes win, things are a little easier going forward.
1. Tulane
Despite being the No. 11 seed, Tulane has a tougher path forward than No. 12 seed James Madison. That’s because an upset win over Ole Miss in the first round would send the Green Wave to a quarterfinal meeting with Georgia, something that feels scarier than a quarterfinal meeting with Texas Tech.
I’d rather be Tulane in the first round, facing an Ole Miss team that just went through a coaching change, but I’d much rather be James Madison beyond that. Hence, Tulane just barely beats out JMU for the title of “team with the hardest playoff path.”
