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Dom Petrillo's 2020 fantasy football value analysis of Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie wide receiver Tyler Johnson. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and top dynasty WR target?
Here at RotoBaller, we are dedicated to giving you the best fantasy football coverage. Part of this commitment is our series of 2020 NFL rookie spotlights. This series of articles breaks down the profile of a player who came out in the 2020 NFL Draft. It also gives you our thoughts on where to take the players in your fantasy drafts, both redraft and dynasty.
With this in mind, please continue to check back daily to find more profiles on some of the 2020 NFL rookies you may have questions about. They are well worth the read and just like all other @RotoBallerFB articles - we put a lot of work into them to provide you the best content possible. You can find analysis on other rookie receivers such as Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Mims, Edwards and Shenault.
In this piece, I'll cover one of the receivers drafted later on whose value may be very much in question. Tampa Bay wide receiver Tyler Johnson had a prolific college career but wasn't selected early in the 2020 NFL Draft. His place behind two of the best WRs in football has put a damper on his short-term outlook. But is there more than meets the eye here, especially in dynasty?
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Profile
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
College: Minnesota
Height/Weight: 6'1", 206 lb
NFL Draft Pick: Round 5, Pick 161 overall
Scouting Report
Playing at a school that is not a traditional football powerhouse, Tyler Johnson was able to get on the field in his freshman season of 2016. He only recorded 14 receptions for 141 yards and one TD, but the talent was still evident in his small level of production.
After exploding in his sophomore season to average 19.3 yards/catch on 35 receptions and seven TD, he settled into a groove his final two seasons in Minneapolis. Not shockingly, as the team got better, so did he. Or maybe vice versa.
During his final two seasons in college, Johnson had 78 and 86 catches respectively while combining for 2,489 yards and 25 TD while working mainly out of the slot. His career numbers were good enough to earn him a spot on the Mount Rushmore of Gopher receivers.
This one was a runaway...
Your Mount Rushmore of Gopher football wide receivers are Rashod Bateman, Eric Decker, Tyler Johnson and Ron Johnson.
We will be back on Monday with QBs! pic.twitter.com/KPSWmtwFI3
— Minnesota Football (@GopherFootball) May 1, 2020
He is likely to do most of his work in the slot again in the NFL with Tampa Bay. Had there not been a few minor attitude concerns amongst teams, he would have gone much higher in the draft. Before falling into the fifth round, most analysts saw him as a third-round prospect. It just shows how important first impressions are.
2020 Outlook
Word is there is a new QB in town for the Buccaneers and he loves using his slot receiver. Of course, this is Tom Brady. If you want to know if he likes using his slot receiver, just ask Wes Welker and Julian Edelman where their careers would have gone without him. Despite what was obviously a down season for Brady and New England in 2019, Edelman still managed 100 catches for 1,117 yards and six TD on 159 targets. All this at age 33 and coming off two injury-shortened seasons in which Edelman only played nine and 12 games in consecutive seasons. Although we have to see the talent, Tyler Johnson being a decade younger, he may provide a similar profile for Brady to find across the middle.
Chris Godwin had a breakout season in 2019 finishing as the WR6 for fantasy. If not for a late-season injury, Mike Evans would have finished in the same range. Both of these players work better on the outside meaning rookie Tyler Johnson will take over the slot role, if he beats out Justin Watson.
Not only will he be playing a pivotal role in the offensive scheme, he will also be playing alongside players who will make coverages forget about him more often than not. If O.J. Howard can show why he was drafted in the first round, he will provide a great second option at tight end behind newly unretired Rob Gronkowski. The best tight end in NFL history may not be what he once was. But he is still going to be a top 10 TE and besides being the best receiving TE in league history, he may very well be the best blocking TE also. Howard will learn a lot from him, even if it is only for one season.
All this is to say, Johnson will not be asked to come in a be the savior of the team. He will have time to grow and learn behind an elite group of receiving weapons in Tampa Bay.
If you are playing in a dynasty league, Johnson would make a good draft pick late in round two or early in round three but he may not have much value for this upcoming season. He will be the slot receiver, yes. He will also be behind all the receivers mentioned above when it comes to targets. Not to mention if they get anything out of Ronald Jones or Ke’Shawn Vaughn from the backfield.
In redraft leagues, this means one simple thing. He should not be on your radar to be drafted except in the very deepest of leagues. As the fifth option at best, there will be very few targets heading the way of Johnson in the 2020 season. If there is an injury to a player above him or if he does break out early, he will be there for you on the waiver wire. Do not waste a draft pick on him hoping to outsmart the competition. You may just outsmart yourself instead.
Dynasty Outlook
While this season is not one for the history books, the future of Tyler Johnson in Tampa Bay could be bright. If Chris Godwin has another monster season the Bucs will be forced to decide whether or not they can afford him on top of already having Evans on the roster. Lucky for them Brady is likely to be a two-year player. This means the Bucs should have the money with a rookie QB salary to sign Godwin long term. But if the team decides to go another direction by signing a veteran in hopes of winning, Godwin could be out, and Tyler Johnson could be in. If this happens, Johnson will be a top-15 fantasy WR as the WR2 on Tampa’s offense.
Whether the team moves on from Godwin or keeps him in the fold, the likelihood of Cameron Brate, O.J. Howard and Rob Gronkowski being there after 2021 are minimal. This will move Johnson further up in the pecking order of weapons. Having him stashed on your dynasty team could turn into a boon for you. Much like DeVante Parker did for you in 2019.
Tyler Johnson will not cost you much in dynasty drafts. Whether they be rookie or startup drafts, his price will be minimal as a third-round pick or later. For this season, his return will make you think twice. Be patient and hold tight. You may just be rewarded for it in the coming years.
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