Jerry Jeudy - Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight

May 17, 2020

Phil Clark's 2020 fantasy football value analysis of Broncos rookie wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and top dynasty WR target?

The enormous level of excitement that surrounds members of each rookie class has become an annual occurrence for the fantasy community. The frenzy for this season’s newcomers has intensified as Dynasty and Best-Ball owners now have the opportunity to select these players for their rosters, while others can prepare for their chance to seize them in redraft leagues.

The team at RotoBaller is assembling a collection of rookie profiles that will provide you with analysis and data for these promising first-year players. This will help you determine whether each performer should be targeted for your rosters during the draft process, and which players are less worthy of consideration as components for your teams.

This year's rookie class includes a collection of wide receivers who will be forced to overcome the challenges of an unusual offseason. This scenario will impact Jerry Jeudy, who possesses a comprehensive package of favorable traits as he enters his first season with Denver. A review of his collegiate career at Alabama will be blended with an analysis of his strengths, along with the factors that he will encounter in his new environment.

Profile:

Team: Denver Broncos
College: Alabama
Height/Weight 6’1”, 195
2020 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 15

Excelling At The Collegiate Level

Jeudy arrived at Alabama as a five-star prospect, after collecting 117 passes, assembling 1,554 yards and stockpiling 25 touchdowns during his final two seasons at Deerfield Beach High School in Florida. That includes the 1,054 and 15 touchdowns that he generated as a senior.

Jeudy's output was limited to 14 receptions, and 264 yards during his freshman season with the Crimson Tide, which easily trailed team leader Calvin Ridley (63 receptions/967 yards). But Jeudy’s involvement increased significantly during his second year, as he finished 10^th among all receivers with 1,315 yards, and tied for third with 14 touchdowns.

He also led Alabama’s immensely talented receiving corps in both categories, along with targets (104), receptions (68), and yards per reception (19.3). That propelled him to first-team All-American status, while he also commandeered the prestigious Biletnikoff Award following that highly successful sophomore season.

Jeudy cemented his status as a premier NFL prospect during 2019, by pacing Alabama in targets (110) and receptions (77). His 10 touchdowns also expanded his career total to 26, which vaulted him to second in school history behind Amari Cooper.

His target share rose to 25%, as he collected a team-high 77 receptions, accrued 1,163 yards, and averaged 15.1 yards per reception. Jeudy also collected 8+ receptions in three contests, exceeded 100 yards in four different matchups, and generated 10 touchdowns. He finished his career by igniting for 204 yards against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.

Jeudy’s list of accomplishments during his three seasons with the Crimson Tide is substantial. These achievements were attained through his dedication toward becoming an elite performer, along with a desirable assortment of skills that raised him to a preeminent position among wide receivers at the collegiate level. It also provided the foundation for Jeudy’s newfound status as a first-round draft selection.

A Phenomenal Talent 

In my recent rookie profile on Jeudy’s former teammate Henry Ruggs, it was mentioned that Ruggs’ usage and production were constrained by Alabama’s deep arsenal of receiving talent – which included Jeudy, Ruggs, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. This same principle applies to Jeudy, whose numbers would have been more impressive if he had been operating in an environment that did not contain an array of highly gifted pass catchers.

However, there was still a sizable incentive for many draft observers to consider Jeudy among the most enticing prospects from this year's rookie class at the wide receiver position. The explosive Jeudy delivers an exceptional blend of speed and route-running acumen, along with the versatility to operate outside or from the slot. This can create nightmarish results for many of the overmatched defenders that he will encounter.

He should become even more formidable for opponents as experience fuels further development during his career progression. Size is hardly a concern for the 6'ft 1", 195-pound Jeudy, while his work ethic is unquestioned. The same dedication that he demonstrated while perfecting his route running will continue driving him toward continual improvement, and rising production.

Most projected receiving yards among rookie WRs

1. Jerry Jeudy - 712
2. Henry Ruggs - 699
3. CeeDee Lamb - 663
4. Justin Jefferson - 658 pic.twitter.com/QsalFIXJYg

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) May 2, 2020

Denver’s Transformed Offense

Denver ranked just 28^th in both total offense and passing offense passing during 2019, and 27^th in attempts per game (31.5). The Broncos also ranked 27th in points per possession (1.6), 28th in red zone touchdown efficiency (47.6), and dead last in passing touchdowns (16).

It was clear that enhancements were needed in order to improve the team's substandard attack, and that compelled John Elway to pursue a massive assemblage of explosive weaponry. This was also designed with the intention of closing the gap that exists between Denver and AFC West rival Kansas City, while also improving the Broncos’ prospects of producing points during their encounters with the Chiefs.

The team’s selection of Jeudy with the 15^th overall pick provided a major resource in their pursuit of the Chiefs and an eventual spot among the league’s most tangible Super Bowl contenders. He will join a receiving unit that has experienced a mammoth offseason renovation. However, third-year receiver Courtland Sutton represents one sizable exception, as he will return in the aftermath of a breakout season. The ascending Sutton led the NFL in percentage share of team’s air yards (42.93), while also finishing 15th in targets (125/7.8 per game) 17th in yardage (1,112), seventh in red-zone targets, and 16th in air yards (1,436). But even though Sutton constructed excellent numbers, the October trade of Emmanuel Sanders left the Broncos woefully deficient in additional receiving talent.

No other Denver wide receiver collected 30 receptions or attained 300 yards, as DaeSean Hamilton’s 28 receptions/297 yards placed him second at the position following Sander’s departure. Hamilton operated from the slot on 78% of his offensive plays but has been consigned to irrelevance due to the influx of superior talent.

The dynamic K.J. Hamler was drafted by Denver in Round 2 and will supply the offense with yet another dynamic blend of athleticism and explosiveness. Hamler can be deployed frequently in the slot, where he will loom as an ongoing big-play threat. This instantly provides the Broncos with a dangerous downfield weapon that is desperately needed as a complement to Jeudy and Sutton. Hamler’s exceptional speed can also result in sizable yardage totals after the catch on shorter routes.

Denver’s rushing attack ranked an unimpressive 20^th in 2019 (103.9 yards per game). But the Broncos’ ground game has been bolstered through the arrival of Melvin Gordon. He had finished at RB8 or better from 2016-2018 while averaging 996 rushing yards, and 462 receiving yards during that span. His numbers should rebound significantly from last year’s career-worst output (612 rushing yards), which was a byproduct of his ill-conceived holdout.

Pat Shurmur will be the architect of this year’s offense, after spending 10 of the last 11 seasons functioning as either a head coach or offensive coordinator. He becomes the beneficiary of the reshaped components that have been infused into the renovated attack. Shurmur's presence will be an asset to Jeudy, as he can exploit matchup advantages that will maximize Jeudy's ability to prevail against coverage.

Jerry Jeudy's route running is just absurd for a college prospect.

How will he fare on the outside against press?

Oh, well enough to make the dude spin around and fall on his face! pic.twitter.com/izs5lZpVRW

— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) April 24, 2020

Competition For Targets

The Broncos inserted three different quarterbacks under center during 2019, as Joe Flacco’s forgettable eight-game tenure (6 touchdowns/5 interceptions) led to three matchups with Brandon Allen spearheading the attack. Elway had invested a second-round pick in Drew Lock during the 2019 NFL Draft, and Lock was elevated into the lineup for Denver’s Week 13 matchup with the Chargers.

Lock averaged only 20 attempts during his five games as the Broncos’ starter while completing 64.1% of his throws, and averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. Sutton sustained an appealing 8.0 target per game average after Lock secured the starting role.

But even though he commandeered the team-high target share, his output declined from 7.7 receptions/77 yards per game in Weeks 1-12 to 4.4 receptions/56 yards per game while operating with Lock. Sutton’s 9.87 yards per target average from Weeks 1-12 also dropped to 5.85 per game from Weeks 14-17. This should be a concern for Sutton owners when projecting his numbers over 16 games with Lock.

Promising second-year tight end Noah Fant collected 40 of his 65 targets for 562 yards during 2019. His 3.4 targets per game average from Weeks 1-7 rose to 6.8 from Weeks 8-12. However, that average also dropped to 2.8 with Lock under center, as Fant also averaged just 2.0 receptions and 37.6 yards per game during that sequence. He did accrue 113 yards in Week 14 but failed to exceed 10 yards in three of the other four contests.

Sutton is theoretically capable of raising his output even further as as opposing defensive units dedicate resources toward neutralizing Jeudy. This would reduce the attention that had been previously been concentrated on impeding Sutton. However, the most reasonable outcome is that neither Jeudy or Sutton will generate the output that would have developed if both receivers were not competing for targets.

Jeudy’s Outlook

It is clear that the additions of Jeudy, Gordon and Hamler have significantly elevated the potential of Denver’s attack. However, this will require Lock to fully capitalize on the dynamic weaponry that Elway has assembled. Lock’s five game stint with the receiving options that existed in 2019 does not provide a sufficient sample size to accurately predict how effectively he will perform this season.

That presents the largest concern for owners of Jeudy, and any other receiving option that will be involved within the offense. But it does not eliminate all reason for optimism regarding Jeudy’s prospects of amassing respectable numbers this season. His versatility creates the potential that he can accrue targets through deployment both inside and on the perimeter. Shurmur’s ability to make in-game adjustments bodes well for the likelihood that this will occur.

Jeudy is also primed to unleash an outstanding blend of physical qualities that will help him succeed against the coverage that he will encounter. He can take advantage of his exceptional route running to set up defenders, then utilize a lethal mixture of speed and acceleration to seize separation. Shurmur will also place him in position to thrive.

Jeudy presents the potential of functioning as an eventual WR1 for owners in dynasty leagues, as he will eventually construct a highly successful career at the NFL level. His talent and commitment should also propel him to a reasonable level of fantasy relevance during 2020. However, Sutton can be expected to commandeer Denver's highest target share, while the inexperience of Lock threatens to place constraints on the numbers that Jeudy will achieve early this season. But it is feasible to expect that Jeudy's output will rise as the year advances. That will provide owners with a viable weekly starter before his rookie year has reached a conclusion.

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