Which Rookie QB Will Be Best in Fantasy? Head of the Class

September 23, 2021

Dom breaks down the 2021 rookie quarterback class after Week 2 for fantasy football analysis and provides his ROS ranks at QB for first-year players.

We all know the names. From Trevor Lawrence to Mac Jones, five of the first 15 picks in the 2021 NFL draft were at the quarterback position.

The big difference is the situations in which each player was drafted. Were they drafted to the worst team in the league (Jacksonville)? Or were they taken by a playoff-caliber team who used their draft picks to move up for the selection like San Francisco?

Only one thing is certain. None of them can be labeled a bust yet despite some fans already thinking otherwise. The question we need to ask now is which of the rookie quarterbacks will be the best for fantasy football for the rest of 2021.

What We Know

We knew Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville and Zach Wilson in New York would be the undisputed starters for their teams since the preseason. The same can also be said for Mac Jones in New England. But we have yet to see Trey Lance start and Justin Fields, although he will get his chance in Week 3 due to injury, is still sitting behind Andy Dalton in Chicago.

Right away we can eliminate one candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year and that's Zach Wilson. Sorry Jets fans, he may be good, but the team is a minimum of one year away. With the offensive line in shambles after Mekhi Becton's injury and the wide receivers ailing, he does not have the weapons to contend in this competition. At this point in the season, he might be wishing he were back in Utah at BYU.

Trey Lance was my favorite quarterback in this draft. After a Week 1 touchdown against the Detroit Lions, he did not see the field at all against Philadelphia in Week 2. This shows that maybe Kyle Shanahan was not just bluffing when he claimed Jimmy Garoppolo would be the starter for longer than we expect. If the 49ers remain playoff-bound, look for Lance to remain a gadget quarterback at best.

In Chicago, we have a different problem. The coaching staff is as blind as me and therefore cannot see that Justin Fields is already better than Andy Dalton. They are also fighting for their jobs, meaning they will wait until the last minute to make the switch in hopes of convincing ownership to allow them to develop their young star.

#Bears PR just came into the media room to deliver a message from Matt Nagy:

Andy Dalton is the team's starting quarterback when he is healthy.

— Brad Biggs (@BradBiggs) September 20, 2021

With three quarterbacks quickly eliminated as afterthoughts in fantasy, we are left with only two options. Mac Jones in New England and Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. So, which one is the winner? Surprisingly, it's Jones.

Jags In Over Their Heads

Urban Meyer is a great college head coach. When it comes to an NFL head coach, he is in over his head. And he has not learned how to tread water. This has been apparent from the get-go of his tenure. It has worked itself down to the field as we have seen nothing from the Jaguars to be optimistic about in the first two weeks of the season.

Broncos coach Vic Fangio says Jaguars coach Urban Meyer told him that in the NFL it seems like he faces powerhouse Alabama week in and week out. https://t.co/Uqdzjjfr5B

— AP NFL (@AP_NFL) September 23, 2021

James Robinson was everyone’s darling in 2020. This preseason, he was considered an afterthought due to the first-round selection of Travis Etienne in the NFL draft. After injury let Robinson again become relevant, he was one of the biggest risers late in fantasy draft season. So far, this rise has not equaled production. This is due to the ineptitude of the Jacksonville offense and to be fair, defense. Lawrence is mired in a sea of mediocrity which looks to be in place until the time when Urban Meyer decides it is time to return to college. So... right after this season. For the sake of Lawrence and his potential, I hope it is this soon. This does nothing to help him for the rest of his rookie year though.

Jacksonville will be trailing in most of their remaining games. This could lead to a lot of garbage time for him to compile stats. Despite his three INT, Lawrence did throw for 332 yards in his pro debut. But the following week was a huge letdown with 118 yards and two more INT. The garbage time theory only works if the offense can remain on the field behind a strained offensive line. With this not likely to happen, Lawrence is a bad bet to have a fantasy-relevant remainder of the fantasy season.

The Real Deal

In a completely opposite situation, Mac Jones looks to be authentic. He is not the 6’6" power-armed Adonis-like Lawrence. Instead, he is the slightly doughy mentally-talented pocket passer of yesteryear. He is a throwback QB who is playing for a throwback coach in Bill Belichick. With Damien Harris and James White in the backfield, Jones has the running game to help him along. In Jakobi Meyers along with tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, the receiving corps is also solid enough to get things done. Add to this pieces like field-stretcher Nelson Agholor and the Patriots have a contender in their midst. Not for a Super Bowl, mind you, but for a return to the playoffs.

Jones will not get you 300 yards and three touchdowns every week. He is not this type of quarterback, and the Patriots are not this type of offense. But he will get you a decent fantasy game most Sundays. Most importantly, he is not likely to submarine your week with negative points like Zach Wilson may have last week with four interceptions.

The final ranking:

1. Mac Jones
2. Trevor Lawrence
3. Justin Fields
4. Trey Lance
5. Zach Wilson

To be fair, none of these are great options when it comes to single quarterback leagues. At best, they would be bye-week streamers in this format. But in two-quarterback or Superflex leagues, Lawrence or Jones could be viable options for your second quarterback. Just do not count on them to get you the massive points of an Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes. At least not this season.

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