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The Jacksonville Jaguars likely do not have high expectations about advancing far in 2020. If anything, they should be considered a rebuilding team with a stripped-down defense, young QB in Gardner Minshew II, and a running back with an uncertain future in Leonard Fournette.
However, they did draft a wide receiver in Laviska Shenault Jr. who will hopefully be a part of the team’s plans for many years going forward. With plenty of receivers looking to get fed targets on this Jags offense, Shenault must earn a top role. Therefore, he is ranked 17th on the Rotoballer rookie rankings.
Let's examine his fantasy value for the coming season and beyond.
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Profile
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
College: Colorado
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 227 lbs
2020 Pick: Round 2, Pick 10
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com
Scouting Report
Although he is a talented player, Shenault’s draft projection varied among pundits. NFL.com predicted the Colorado receiver would be plucked off the board in Round 3. Meanwhile, Draftwire of USA TODAY classified the Texas native as a Day 1 pick. Ultimately, he wound up somewhere in between as an early second-rounder and the ninth receiver taken in 2020.
With size and speed, Shenault brings a new element to this Jaguars offense. The WR’s height (6’1”) helps him stay physical against corners, he has great catching abilities, and possesses a diverse set of skills, as he can play split end, slot, or flanker. He had a breakout campaign in 2018 with 1,000 yards receiving, and that elevated his recognition.
There is no doubt he can become a top receiver for this offense as he develops in the NFL. However, his draft projections varied for a reason, and there are concerns about durability. Shenault did have surgery on his labrum and toe in the past two years, and that means walking a fine line in terms of his fantasy value and real-life on-the-field usage.
This past February, the receiver also dealt with pubic bone inflammation and core muscle injury and needed surgery. His history of injuries could be concerning for the Jags and fantasy owners. Because of his most recent surgery, he ran a 4.58 40-yard dash in the 2020 combine. The biggest question about Shenault’s NFL career will be whether he overcomes injury history to be a dependable receiver.
2020 Outlook
There is no doubt the Colorado receiver has major competition for snaps and targets on this Jags offense. Though the team did get a great receiver, they already have several capable ones. This makes the fantasy value of Shenault rather murky.
The rookie must fight for targets with receivers D.J. Chark Jr., Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, and Keelan Cole. Chark broke out last season and should be considered the top target on this team. As the de facto WR1 on the team, D.J. Chark will see a heavy number of targets. He chewed up 118/589 (20%) of them last season while also racking up 73 receptions, 1,008 yards, 13.8 yards per catch, and eight touchdowns. Therefore, elevating up to WR1 status is unlikely for a rookie, especially one with an injury history.
Conley and Westbrook fill out the next spots on the depth chart. Neither will light up the fantasy scoreboard, but both are capable receivers. Westbrook notched 101/589 targets (17%), 66 receptions, 660 yards, 10 yards per catch, and three touchdowns in 2019. Conley eclipsed 90/589 targets (15.2%), 47 receptions, 775 yards, 16.5 yards per catch, and five touchdowns.
Realistically, the 21-year-old could slide anywhere from the WR2 to WR4 on this team as the season progresses depending on how head coach Doug Marrone utilizes him and how acclimated Shenault becomes to the Jags’ scheme and playbook. He will fight for targets with Westbrook and Conley as they are the current WR2 and WR3. It’s safe to say he is the WR4 to start the 2020 season, though.
Taking all of this into account, Shenault is only a flex piece who can be picked up late in large redraft leagues (12-14 teams). Given the factors previously mentioned, it is a gamble to draft him. If he is drafted, he should only serve as depth on the bench unless he starts showing some serviceable fantasy numbers during the season.
Dynasty Outlook
Shenault brings boom-or-bust potential in fantasy. He can stretch the field and be an explosive player on the field if he is utilized enough. His injuries are worth considering when it comes to drafting him in dynasty, though. His role is not carved out yet and it’s unlikely he will take the WR1 role from Chark, who is just 23 years old.
There is still uncertainty at the quarterback position long-term as well. Minshew could be serviceable but isn't likely to be a franchise QB. If the team ends up near the bottom of the standings in 2020, there is a chance that they target someone like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, or another QB. Conceivably, this could help the entire receiving corps, but it also brings more uncertainty to the passing game and could delay the ascension of Shenault and others.
If you are willing to play the waiting game and bet on the idea that the Jags will have a potent passing attack past 2021, then Shenault may be worth the gamble. Currently going as a mid-second round pick in rookie drafts, it isn't a steep price to pay. Still, it would be hard to justify taking him over higher-upside receivers like Denzel Mims or Michael Pittman Jr.
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