Finding Over/Undervalued Shortstops Using Expected Draft Values

Nick Mariano uses RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, which analyzes data from the last 5 fantasy baseball seasons, to identify overvalued and undervalued shortstops (SS) for fantasy baseball drafts in 2022.

We're back for another installment of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered.

Today, we'll look at three shortstops and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning February into March (94 drafts), their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.

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How Expected Draft Values Help You Win Your League

It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return positive or negative value. Below, we look at three shortstops that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC Draft Champions ADP, our RotoBaller projections, and Expected Draft Values.

Without further ado, here are some players that stand out at their current cost in 2022 drafts.

Marcus Semien (2B/SS, TEX)

NFBC DC ADP: 44
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 44th: .270-30-90-89-16
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .260-29-93-85-13

Analysis: Semien earned a seven-year contract with Texas after an elite 45-homer, 15-steal campaign with Toronto. Even though he didn’t like playing in Dunedin (citing the sun and wind), Semien posted nearly identical home/away splits in 2021 to help quell concerns about performance outside of Dunedin/Toronto.

Per Baseball Savant, Sahlen Field had a 105 Park Factor for hits as a right-handed batter while Rogers Centre was 99. Under the old Globe Life Park dimensions, we’d be thrilled at the move thanks to Arlington’s hit and HR factors of ~110 for righties. However, this is Globe Life Field now. Righties had a 90 and 93 HR factor in ‘20 and ‘21, respectively, with 98 hit factors in both years.

Combine the lesser park with Semien’s own good-not-great metrics, such as a barrel rate that’s never topped 10%, average exit velocities below 90 mph, no max exit velocity above 110 mph, and I get concerned. In his corner is having played in all 162 games in both 2021 and 2019, topping 700 plate appearances in the last three full seasons (stupid 2020). I can understand “overdrafting” him for the durability and volume as presumed leadoff hitter in an improved lineup.

On the whole, his projections typically fail to meet the 46 HR+SB expectation here. Ours fall four short, while ATC is only at 30 HR/11 SB for five under. Then you need his R+RBI to hold around 180 after Toronto propelled him to 217 last year, which Texas’ top-heavy lineup may struggle to meet.

You are relying on Corey Seager’s bat staying healthy behind Semien up top. Finally, Semien is typically projected to hit around .260, as we call for, and you saw the park data that reinforces the pessimism. You need his HR+SB or R+RBI to compensate for ~10 points of average here. Is the 2B/SS flexibility worth it? Not to me.

Verdict: Pass, Semien is overvalued at his current draft slot

Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM)

NFBC DC ADP: 50
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 50th: .268-28-93-94-14
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .248-25-89-81-12

Analysis: I realize Lindor is polarizing, as several are buying into a big rebound with his adjusting to Queens, but the projections here are lacking. You’re drawing a -5 in the HR+SB categories, a -7 in R+RBI (though they’re far less sticky), and a whopping 20-point batting average drop. It seems his excellent 2017-19 seasons in a Cleveland park that boosts left-handed power are still anchoring the draft-day cost.

Perhaps you fully buy into his September, when he clobbered nine home runs while going 29-for-113 (.257) down the stretch. Lindor had missed five weeks in July and August with a right oblique strain but then torched things. However, the profile needed for this was a fly-ball rate near 50% and that means the .257 average from that stretch is pushing the high-end.

Anywho, it’s easy to get wrapped up in the counting stats but his not delivering a batting average north of .285 since 2016 can't be glossed over. And taking that swing from lefty-friendly Progressive Field over to Citi Field is simply not what you want. EVAnalytics houses park factors fueled by Derek Carty's THE BAT calculations, giving us a quick snapshot into Progressive Field's hitter advantage and Citi Field's disadvantage:

Simply put, that's a lot of red to overcome. I don't believe you're getting a plus average here, which puts a strain on his power stroke and the legs to return value. It's not impossible, but it's a yellow-light situation at best.

Verdict: Pass, Lindor is overvalued at his current draft slot

Willy Adames (SS, MIL)

NFBC DC ADP: 125
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 125th: .262-30-77-80-3
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .268-29-85-82-6

Analysis: Adames notably hated hitting at the Trop and the Trop hated him too, as 622 career plate appearances yielded a horrendous .217/.275/.341 line with 16 HRs. After hitting an even-worse .197 in 142 PAs for Tampa Bay in 2021, Adames was dealt to Milwaukee where he blossomed and cranked out a .285/.366/.521 slash with 20 HRs in 413 PAs (99 games).

The funny thing is, Adames still didn’t hit that well at home. Willy would “only” slash .236/.335/.467 at Miller Park, though an .802 OPS is nothing to scoff at and his 13.1% walk rate there can be tied to improved comfort in the batter’s box. That .266 BABIP for Miller Park feels fishy to me. Of course, he balanced that out with a .417 BABIP away from Milwaukee to fuel a .325/.392/.565 line in 222 PAs.

It’s not a leap to expect middle ground in 2022, but he may be closer to the road madness than ADP suggests. In 2019, Adames hit .303 with 15 HRs and 16 doubles in 306 road PAs. In the shortened 2020, he hit .324 with six more longballs and nine doubles over 115 road PAs. Now just 26 years old, Adames will finally have a chance to flex a full season’s worth of play away from the Trop. He slogged through it for three-plus years and most have internalized him as a mediocre fantasy bat as a result. Breakthrough your anchored expectation and see that he’s projected for slightly more HR+SB, R+RBI, and AVG than EDV dictates.

Verdict: Target, Adames is undervalued at his current draft slot

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