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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season. Thunder Dan's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season!
I'm pinch-hitting on this feature for my friend Kevin Tompkins, or is the more appropriate sports analogy that I am the backup quarterback coming off the bench?
Unfortunately, a lot of folks ran with the Chargers, and I saw they were Kevin's top pick. If you got knocked out last week, there are usually a lot of second-chance pools running in these early weeks, so jump back in and let's continue our quest to get through the rest of the season unscathed.
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Win Probabilities For Week 2
Before jumping into the picks for Week 2, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with the Vegas data for each NFL matchup this week.
| TEAM | ML ODDS | Implied Prob | De-Vig Prob |
| SF | -950 | 90.48% | 86.77% |
| BAL | -410 | 80.39% | 77.15% |
| TB | -410 | 80.39% | 77.15% |
| LAR | -355 | 78.02% | 74.78% |
| LAC | -310 | 75.61% | 72.58% |
| PHI | -305 | 75.31% | 72.21% |
| KC | -305 | 75.31% | 72.21% |
| CHI | -230 | 69.70% | 66.90% |
| NE | -230 | 69.70% | 66.90% |
| SEA | -225 | 69.23% | 66.36% |
| BUF | -218 | 68.55% | 65.75% |
| DAL | -218 | 68.55% | 65.75% |
| GB | -205 | 67.21% | 64.47% |
| CAR | -155 | 60.78% | 58.30% |
| HOU | -142 | 58.68% | 56.35% |
| DEN | -142 | 58.68% | 56.35% |
| CIN | 120 | 45.45% | 43.65% |
| JAX | 120 | 45.45% | 43.65% |
| ATL | 130 | 43.48% | 41.70% |
| NYJ | 170 | 37.04% | 35.53% |
| DET | 180 | 35.71% | 34.25% |
| WAS | 180 | 35.71% | 34.25% |
| ARI | 185 | 35.09% | 33.64% |
| MIN | 190 | 34.48% | 33.10% |
| PIT | 190 | 34.48% | 33.10% |
| IND | 245 | 28.99% | 27.79% |
| TEN | 245 | 28.99% | 27.79% |
| LV | 250 | 28.57% | 27.42% |
| NYG | 280 | 26.32% | 25.22% |
| NO | 320 | 23.81% | 22.85% |
| CLE | 320 | 23.81% | 22.85% |
| MIA | 625 | 13.79% | 13.23% |
We can extrapolate the implied winning percentage from Vegas odds, and then remove the vig (or the upcharge that is built into the price by the books) to get a true implied win probability. You can de-vig any line using our new No-Vig Calculator right here! Check it out, it's super cool and useful.
Now, let's look at the survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 2.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 2
San Francisco Forty-Niners (vs. MIA)
Let's call this "the good chalk," as the Niners come in as massive favorites in this one. These two teams could have more opposite outcomes in Week 1. The Niners took it to everyone's preseason Super Bowl pick, the L.A. Rams, in their opener, while the Dolphins struggled badly against Las Vegas.
San Francisco should cruise in this one; they have rebuilt on offense quite nicely, and Brock Purdy looked quite comfortable already in Week 1 with his new receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. They could dominate on the ground with both Christian McCaffrey and Kaelon Black running behind a very good offensive line.
Mike Evans said MINE 🏈
SFvsLAR on Netflix pic.twitter.com/XONVPkC08v
— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2026
Miami looked poor on both sides of the ball. They failed to stop Ashton Jeanty, allowing over 100 yards on the ground, while also letting old man Kirk Cousins move the ball on them in the passing game. Malik Willis found out very quickly that playing quarterback on a bad team is a lot harder than stepping into a good situation in Green Bay. Achane was ineffective in the run game, as the Raiders loaded up to stop him and forced Willis to throw far more often than Miami wanted to.
Look for the Niners to do the same thing here. They can pound Miami into submission with their run game, and they have the talent on defense to shut down Achane. There's a reason they are the biggest favorites on the board, and they are absolutely (by a wide margin) the safest bet on the board.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CLE)
My favorite pick this week is the Bucs, however. Tampa lost in Week 1, but turned the ball over four times and nearly battled all the way back. I think they'll be much better this week, and it's hard not to like whoever is playing against this current version of the Cleveland Browns.
If the Niners had the best Week 1 performance, then the Browns easily had the worst. They were dominated by Jacksonville in every aspect of the game. The offense was stagnant as the run game was shut down early and Deshaun Watson predictably failed to move the ball down the field as a passer.
It's Watson under center again this week, and as long as he's the quarterback in Cleveland, they're going to be a weekly target for survivor contests.
As far as Tampa goes, their schedule gets a good bit harder the rest of the way, so using them now in this spot makes a lot of sense.
Baker Mayfield calls his own number for six!
TBvsCIN on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/VaaX03lvZh— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2026
And if you love narratives, it's Baker (the guy who always has a chip on his shoulder) against the team that gave up on him!
Also consider using: Baltimore (vs. NO), Philadelphia (vs. TEN)
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 2
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Not that you're dying to play this Chargers team again, but I think we saw enough from them to put some doubt in our minds as to whether we can really trust them this season. This week they face a Raiders team that was clearly improved last week. I'm definitely staying away from this matchup, and the Chargers are in the doghouse until they start dominating as they should be.
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Listen, I am the biggest self-hating Steelers fan I think on the planet, but there is no way I am trusting the Patriots after watching them give away that game in the opener to Seattle. The offense looked very mediocre, and I know Seattle's defense is good, but now A.J. Brown is out, too? Romeo Doubs was nowhere to be seen, and the running was nonexistent.
TJ Watt (1)
Pittsburgh Steelers
35 yards, Pick Six pic.twitter.com/9ilE5XLkp3— NFL Touchdown Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) September 13, 2026
The Steelers defense, meanwhile, played lights out in Week 1 and carried their mediocre offense to a win once again. This just feels like a bad matchup for the Pats with how well the Steelers can pressure the quarterback. I think they'll win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh pulled off an upset either.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
It was great seeing Drew Lock lead a comeback in Week 1, but the Patriots also did one heck of a job to give that game away late, too. I mean, what was Drake Maye thinking on that final throw?
The Cardinals, meanwhile, pulled off an impressive upset in Week 1 and looked better on defense than they did all of last year. If their defense can keep them in games, they have enough talent on offense to be competitive most weeks. I think Seattle wins, but I think Arizona can keep it close, and we don't need to sweat this one out. Save the Seahawks for a better spot and possibly until they get Darnold back.
Also consider fading: Los Angeles Rams (vs. NYG), Dallas Cowboys (vs. WAS)
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