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Rishi Patel's 2020 fantasy football value analysis of Packers rookie running back A.J. Dillon. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and top dynasty RB target?
The Packers defied expectations (and logic) by selecting players other than wide receivers in this past NFL Draft. This includes a running back in the second round, A.J. Dillon out of Boston College.
There were plenty of backs taken in the draft who are expected to take on a large role out of the gate. Dillon must prove himself as a backup to fellow RB Aaron Jones this season and beat out Jamaal Williams for the RB2 role. Because of this, he is ranked 22nd in the RotoBaller rookie rankings, as his role will likely be much smaller than his rookie counterparts.
What is fair to expect out of Dillon in his first season and beyond as the Packers appear to be a team on the verge of transition?
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Team: Green Bay Packers
College: Boston College
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 247 lbs
NFL Draft Selection: Round 2, Pick 30
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com
Scouting Report
A.J. Dillon was not expected to be drafted this high. NFL.com projected the back would get drafted in Round 3 or 4 while Draftwire of USA TODAY even saw the Connecticut native getting picked on Day 3 of the draft.
Nevertheless, the Packers claim to have been scouting the Boston College product ever since his freshman season and were impressed with his abilities. There is no doubt Dillon brings size to his game. He is a power back and can muscle his way for extra yardage, bringing athleticism despite being nearly 250 pounds.
As a big-bodied back, Dillon can shoulder hits and pound his way into the end zone, making him a great red-zone option. In three seasons of college, he finished with no less than 10 rush touchdowns. The RB doesn’t back down and is a hard runner.The former Boston College player finished with well over 1,000 yards rushing in all three of his seasons. If given the opportunity, he can likely be the workhorse back on an NFL team, though there are qualms about his durability.
One downside to Dillon is the lack of pass-catching abilities, as he only compiled 21 receptions and 236 receiving yards in all his collegiate career. NFL.com allocated comparisons of Dillon to the Steelers’ James Conner. Additionally, the back recorded a 4.53 40-yard dash, which did rank behind some of his counterparts, including Jonathan Taylor (4.39), Cam Akers (4.47), and D’Andre Swift (4.49).
A Questionable Pick
The Packers were in dire need of a WR2 to complement Davante Adams. Instead, selecting Dillon when they already have Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, two capable backs, likely ruins the rookie’s chance to shine early in his career.
It also didn’t help that they took QB Jordan Love out of Utah State in the first round after trading up, fueling controversial speculation about Aaron Rodgers’ future in Green Bay.
The selection of Dillon was met with some sarcasm and general disapproval considering the reasoning behind it, they don’t need an RB when they already have a stud at the position.
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Though Dillon does bring potential in fantasy football because he does have a great skill set, he didn’t luck out by getting picked to play for the Packers. Green Bay already has two running backs who can shoulder the running game load. This does not bode well for Dillon’s 2020 fantasy value, as expected.
Aaron Jones had a breakout season in 2019. He notably tied Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry with the most rushing touchdowns among RBs in the league with 16. He also finished third in fantasy last season among active fantasy running backs. Overall, the UTEP product compiled 236 rush attempts, 1,084 rush yards, 67.8 rush yards per game, 49 receptions, 474 receiving yards, 9.7 yards per reception, and 3 receiving touchdowns (all career-highs).
The fantasy stock of Jones is entering a high going into 2020, and his value remains robust. This spells bad news for Dillon, and any chance of him taking the lead role at some point in the upcoming season. At 25, Jones is still young and entering his prime, so there is no reason why his role will not stay consistent for a while as long as he is on this team.
Green Bay also has Jamaal Williams, who is better known for his role in the passing game. Last season, he notched 460 rush yards, one rush touchdown, 39 receptions (career-high), 253 receiving yards, and five receiving touchdowns (career-high). The Packers seemed set at the position before the draft, as they have two backs who are specialized in rushing and catching.
At this point, expect modest usage of Dillon on the Packers offense unless an injury occurs. He should not be considered a fantasy-relevant player in re-draft leagues as he enters the season the third running back on this depth chart.
Dynasty Outlook
Dillon could hold more appeal in dynasty, especially if Aaron Jones leaves via free agency after 2020. Any number of scenarios could inspire the Pack to let him walk, especially if he demands a big payday. Coincidentally, Jamaal Williams will also be a free agent after this season and might be considered expendable by Matt LaFleur's coaching staff. That means Dillon has the chance to ascend to the RB2 or even RB1 role one short year from now, potentially making him a steal in dynasty drafts.
Dillon resides within the top 25 of our preseason rookie rankings as the RB8. By next year, he could be among the most productive members of this rookie RB class or simply another member of an RBBC. The expectancy of limited usage as a pass-catcher keeps him below players like J.K. Dobbins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but some dynasty owners could view him as a better asset than pre-draft darling Zach Moss or post-draft sleeper Ke'Shawn Vaughn.
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