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Welcome to our ongoing series of MLB team previews. As part of RotoBaller's ongoing effort to help you win your leagues, we're previewing all 30 MLB teams. For each team, we will take a look at their hitters, pitchers, prospects and offseason moves. Today we dive into the 2017 Atlanta Braves Team Outlook, and preview their potential fantasy baseball contributions.
The Braves (68-93, last in NL East) continue their rebuild by stockpiling their farm system with talent, making them the universal No. 1 minor league system among experts. But don't let that fool you for the big league club; the team put up a .774 OPS in the second half of last season, third best in baseball. Throw in a revamped starting rotation (R.A. Dickey, Jaime Garcia, Bartolo Colon) and the Braves are moving in the right direction.
Don't expect the Braves to compete for a playoff spot in 2017, but the offense should be a sneaky source of fantasy goodness. And if you play in dynasty formats, you better pay attention below. Let's get crackin'.
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Offseason Moves
As noted above, the starting rotation got a complete makeover this offseason. After letting Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair learn on the job, GM John Coppopella decided to invest in veterans on short-term contracts. He started with R.A. Dickey (1 year, $10M) and Bartolo Colon (1 year, $12.5M) while acquiring Jaime Garcia via trade (1 year, $12M remaining on contract). The trio serve as inning-eaters for a Braves rotation that saw no pitcher eclipse 200 innings in 2016. They can all be avoided on draft day in shallow formats, with Garcia and Colon being the most appealing. The Braves also acquired Luis Gohara (Mariners' No. 3 prospect) to add to their plethora of pitching. He couldn't crack the Braves top 10 prospects.
On the offensive side the Braves signed Sean Rodriguez to a 2-year, $12M contract. S-Rod provides multi-position versatility and provided sneaky pop (18 HR) for the Pirates. If he can hold off Jace Peterson and top prospect Ozzie Albies, he will be a sneaky play in MI formats. The Braves also added Micah Johnson and Kurt Suzuki, who can both be ignored for fantasy purposes.
Hitting Overview
Target: Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Matt Kemp, Ender Inciarte, Sean Rodriguez
Fade: Nick Markakis, Adonis Garcia, Tyler Flowers
I mentioned the Braves strong offensive finish to 2016 above. What I neglected to mention was their atrocious start, posting a 62 wRC+, which is basically unheard of. So which team shows up in 2017?
I may be biased, but the Braves will be a sneaky source of fantasy production in 2017, partly thanks to their poor reputation among baseball fans. Freddie Freeman is a top 5 first baseman, period. His 6.1 WAR was best among first basemen and now will have a full season of Dansby Swanson and Matt Kemp in the lineup. As for Swanson, he was fantastic in his debut (.302/.361/.442) and is expected to take the No. 2 spot in the order. Shortstop has suddenly become a postiion of depth, but look for Swanson to crack the top-10 in his first full year. Kemp quietly hit 35 HR and 108 RBI, albeit with a .304 OBP. In standard 5x5 formats, Kemp is a great OF3-5 option and will more likely than not find himself in a DH role come July.
Projected Lineup:
4) Matt Kemp
Pitching Overview
Target: Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz
Fade: R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon
The Braves rotation was horrid in 2016 posting a 4.51 ERA, 24th in baseball. Rookies Wisler and Blair, along with Tyrell Jenkins, were thrust into starting roles and forced to drink water from a fire hose. The results were as you may anticipate. In turn the Braves brought in veterans Colon, Dickey, and Garcia. Colon was useful in 2016 (3.43 ERA/1.20 WHIP), but his 6.0 K/9 leaves him from drafting consideration. Garcia eclipsed 30 starts for the first time since 2011 but they were some junky starts, compiling a 4.67 ERA and 1.4 HR/9 (both career worsts). Neither pitcher is draft-material but they have streamer potential.
The name to keep an eye on as a back-end rotation starter is Mike Foltynewicz. Folty was acquired in the Evan Gattis trade and showed flashes of dominance (8.1 K/9, 3.1 K/BB) across 22 starts. He'll enter 2016 with a rotation spot locked down (barring an epic collapse in Spring Training) and is going virtually undrafted in shallow formats.
Projected Rotation:
3) Jaime Garcia
5) R.A. Dickey
Prospects Overview
Target: Ozzie Albies, Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Luis Gohara, Kevin Maitan, Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, Ronald Acuna
Fade: Sean Newcomb, Touki Touissant
Talk to any Braves fan and the first topic is the farm system. The Braves made it an emphasis to stockpile talent, and that they did. They have 9 players in top 81 prospects and 12 in the top 110. There's only one problem; most of them can't even buy alcohol yet. Aside from Ozzie Albies, none of the players are MLB-ready. Allard, Fried, Gohara, Soroka, and Touissant make up the All-Star A-Ball rotation (they won the title in Rookie-A in 2016). Maitan, the No. 36 overall prospect in baseball, is only 16 years old.
Looking solely for 2017 production, Albies looks to be the only player with a legitimate chance to crack the MLB roster. If he does, he will face competition from Sean Rodriguez and Jace Peterson. Albies has great contact skills but is not worth investing in non-keeper formats.
If you are in a dynasty format, the first player to target is Maitan. Described as the next Miguel Cabrera, he will be the No. 1 prospect in baseball in three years if he stays on his progression path. Of that pitching group, I expect Soroka to make it to the bigs first, but it is Fried and Allard who possess the greatest potential. Regardless, you should be heavily invested in the best farm system in baseball with the expectation to reap the benefits starting in 2018.
Conclusion
The story of the Atlanta Braves is patience. They have built the farm system up and made short-term investments to make the team presentable as they enter a new stadium. The team is not quite ready to take the next step, but look for significant strides forward in 2017 and the potential to play .500 ball. Target the offense, fade the rotation, and stockpile the prospects. Good times are ahead.
