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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 9 of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending in which way.
We don't have a ton of data to reference on the 2021 season, as many of the underlying metrics still need more time to stabilize before making exact assumptions. However, we can look at a player's track record and performance in this early season.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins
Normally, I prefer to trade for players where you're getting them at fifty cents on the dollar and hoping they are at the beginning of greatness. So, making a move for Kirilloff is a bit unorthodox for me. However, the Twins' stud prospect OF is worth making a move for.
He flashed all the signs of being a stud by going 8-for-24 with four HRs and 15 RBIs to start his 2021. Then, unfortunately, he spent a brief 10-day stint on the IL. Kirilloff has gone 7-for-24 with a couple of multi-hit games and no dingers to speak of upon his return. Even with his latest six games, which have not been awful by any means, Kirilloff has a 55% hard-hit rate and .456 xwOBAcon. Oh yeah, and a 20% barrel rate that more than doubles the league average.
In any re-draft leagues, Kirilloff would be my number one trade target for outfielders. He flashed immense HR power in the MiLB and graded out with a 60/60 raw power. Again, this could be a trickier trade, but Kirilloff could take the league by storm like Adolis Garcia and put you well past the field. A trade like this would probably take an established player to get it done. Take the risk!
Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres
Making a move for Ha-Seong Kim is about two things. One, needing added depth due to injuries, and two, forecasting his future success. Now, I spent a ton of time watching the KBO due to the pandemic last year, and the name that kept impressing me is Kim. So it's safe to say I am a little biased, but you can't turn a blind eye at his 30 HR/20 SB season, even if it was in the KBO.
Kim struggled to start the year because of a lack of everyday playing time and his inability to hit the fastball. In the KBO, pitchers do not throw with nearly as much velocity. This caused Kim to strike out nearly 25% of the time on fastballs in April. However, injuries thrust Kim into the lineup, and becoming acclimated to greater velocities has caused his K% to drop to 16%.
The chart below is a good representation of Kim's season. The elite zone contact has remained stable, regardless of his struggles. The big change was putting more balls in play because the strikeouts are down and hitting fewer ground balls. As you can see, the switch was flipped within the last 10 games, and elevating the ball has caused his ISO to skyrocket.
His positional flexibility will allow you to get him into your lineup all over the infield. Additionally, he is moving up the batting order slowly and producing. In fact, Kim has collected a base hit in 11 of his last 14 games with a .239 ISO. Oh yeah, he also swiped three bases in that time frame. So make a move for Kim ASAP. He won't cost that much, right now anyway.
Jeimer Candelario, Detroit Tigers
If I asked you to name me the top five players in the total number of barrels over the last two weeks, you might come up with dynamic sluggers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Austin Riley. Those are the easy ones that lead the league with 12 and 10 barrels, respectively. Maybe you even guess Ozzie Albies(9 barrels), but I would bet you don't guess Jeimer Candelario, who has eight barrels. Nope, probably not.
The Tigers' 3B gets buried in a lineup that lacks an overall thump and fails to produce runs on a nightly basis. However, it is not because Jeimer doesn't have much power. In fact, Candelario has a 10.3% barrel rate in 2020 and 2021 now. Unfortunately, all those barrels and Candelario have only four HRs to show for it. Sure, Comerica is the roomiest ballpark in the MLB, which plays a factor in the numbers. However, this is a perfect target to pay ten cents on the dollar and hope for a correction in power.
Trade Targets to Move
Mike Zunino, Tampa Bay Rays
Zunino's profile is all-or-nothing, boom-or-bust, which is evident in his slash line(.218/.295/.574). If Zunino makes contact, the ball is likely going a long way. However, luck may very much be on Zunino's side, as shown by his HR/PA. Now, this approach is nothing new for Zunino. Since 2013, his batting average has only been .219, and his career HR/PA rate is .046. Furthermore, through 32 games in 2021, Zunino's HR/PA is .098, which is nearly double his career mark.
You can make all the swing adjustments in the world, but you can't hide the fact that his strikeout rate ranges from 33% to 44% on a year-to-year basis. When you strike out at that alarming rate, you better hit HRs in bunches, or playing time will be taken away from you. But, of course, Zunino already splits time with Francisco Meija as well.
I get it. You didn't like your catcher or had to pick up Zunino due to injuries. However, I'm here to tell you, the wheels are going to fall off of Zunino, and before you know it, you'll be stuck with a catcher that splits time, randomly hits a dinger, and continues to deflate your team batting average. Send Zunino to a team that is looking for a catcher and stream one if you have to. Overall, your team will be better off.
Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies
There is no doubt that his 24.7% K-rate makes him a candidate to be a viable starter, and the 4.16 SIERA gives him validation for the 4.50 ERA. Furthermore, in May, Gomber has only walked three batters while striking out 32. Quite a drastic change for a pitcher that walked 19 batters in April. Walks have always been a problem for Gomber. His career walk rate is just north of 10%. Given his recent lack of walks in May, his 2021 season still showcases a nearly 10% walk rate. Weird.
So let's start with the obvious: Gomber pitches half his games in Coors Field. That alone should give you a reason to trade Gomber. But, oddly, his struggles have not come at home.....yet. The Rockies southpaw carries a 1.88 home ERA and 5.54 road ERA. Again, weird. This is Jon Gray territory.
There are too many bizarre areas of his profile to want to take a shot long-term. Is he a super control pitcher now? Did he defeat Coors Field but gets torched anyway on the road? Again, there are too many questions that leave you scratching your head. On the other hand, Gomber gets his next start in PNC Park against the Pirates. If he puts on a show there, it'll be a perfect time to trade him at peak market value.
Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins
I'll start by saying my favorite time to trade a suspect starter is after a terrific week of hitting. Cooper is fresh off an 11-for-20 week of destruction that included three HRs and 14 runs+RBI. On the season, Cooper is batting .259 with five HRs. Those are useable numbers, but not spectacular. Recency bias is a real thing, folks, and some fantasy managers live off of it. So the perfect time to trade Garrett Cooper is soon.
Now I called Cooper a suspect starter for a reason. For instance, take a look at the Marlins depth chart. There is a big-time OF name missing-Starling Marte. Currently, Marte is in the minor leagues rehabbing from a rib injury and shouldn't be that far away from returning. When he does, that OF will get crowded quickly. The everyday at-bats will die off, and so will the opportunities to move Cooper at top dollar price. My best guess is that you have some time this week to make a move before Marte comes back up.
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