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Max Petrie looks back at his bold predictions for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
Need a break from the NFL grind or perhaps still in the debrief stage of baseball? Have no fear, we got you covered. Let's check out my bold predictions from the preseason and how they turned out. After all, no one likes an expert that makes bold claims and doesn't crow after it crashes and burns, so let's stuff me up.
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Grading My 10 Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Mookie Betts will be the number one fantasy player in 2016.
Always feels good to nail the first question on a test. Betts was the 10th ADP in the preseason and finished the No. 1 player in fantasy, posting a 122/31/113/26/.317 line in 672 at-bats. He solidified himself in the 30/20 club and could have easily become the first 30/30 member since 2012 (Mike Trout, Ryan Braun). Betts is the No. 2 player currently behind Trout going into 2017 and will continue to be a fantasy force going forward.
Grade: A+
2. Felix Hernandez will finish outside the top 30 starting pitchers.
Another solid pick. Fernandez finished as SP71 in standard leagues, just ahead of Colby Lewis. Fernandez had a career low 132 strikeouts and as predicted, was unable to maintain his eight-year 200 innings streak. He also had a 3.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP which were both career-worsts. All good things must end, even for the King.
Grade: A
3. Trevor Story is a top 10 shortstop.
For the record, I picked this before Story was named the starter, but I still feel cheated here. Story was the No. 1 shortstop before he was lost for the season in August, as he hit .272 with 27 HR, 72 RBI, and eight SB in 372 at-bats. Even after missing almost half the season, Story still finished as SS12 in standard leagues. He will be a hot commodity in 2017 and will be drafted a top 5 SS going forward.
Grade: B+
4. Carlos Carrasco wins the Cy Young award.
This pick was looking good until the injury bug got in the way. Carrasco took a line drive to the head and then fractured his hand, stopping him once again from pitching a full season. Even so, Carrasco finished with a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP along with a 9.24 K/9 in 146 innings. Regardless, no Cy Young, no points.
Grade: F
5. Ender Inciarte is a top 30 outfielder.
This is what happens when you let favoritism kick in. Inciarte had a rough start to 2016 and lost time to a hamstring injury in the first half, making it virtually impossible for him to reach OF30 status. Inciarte had an excellent second half (.341/.396/.440) but his lack of power (3 HR) made him a one-stat play. He finished as OF57.
Grade: D+
6. Josh Harrison is a top-5 second baseman.
In the year of the second basemen, this pick never had a chance. Harrison had a solid season (.283, 19 SB) but once again was unable to stay healthy and only saw 487 at-bats. The season in general was a disappointment for the Pirates and this pick was baaaad. Let's move along.
Grade: F-
7. Michael Conforto will hit 30 home runs.
Shit. Harrison looks pretty good compared to this. Conforto regressed in every facet in 2016 and was only able to produce 12 home runs in 304 at-bats. The Mets will give him another chance in 2017 and may look at him at first base, but I don't want be buying.
Grade: F-
8. Randal Grichuk will hit 40 home runs.
Grichuk made improvements in 2016 and improved upon his 17 HR total in 2015 with 24 HR this year, but it wasn't the jump we were looking for. I still fully anticipate Grichuk hitting 40 home runs in his career and the departure of Matt Holliday should free up at-bats in the Cardinals offense.
Grade: D+
9. JT Reamulto is a top 5 catcher.
Back on the winning train! Reamulto finished exactly as C5 in standard leagues and as predicted, was the only catcher to post a 10/10 season. The .303 average was icing on the cake and he should continue to be a useful fantasy commodity going forward.
Grade: A
10. Matt Duffy is a top 10 third basemen.
Sigh. The Duff train finished as the 57th overall third basemen. Let's forget about this one.
Grade: F-
See you all in 2017!
