RADIO
Welcome back, readers. Hopefully you've enjoyed the first three segments of this series as we look further into players that broke out in 2015 and others that received the "bust" label.
This edition will focus on corner infielders that failed to deliver on their expectations. My selections will be influenced by their respective ADP (Average Draft Position) coming into 2015. We won't be discussing the Michael Cuddyers or Billy Butlers of the world because let's be real, you didn't plan on solid production from either at the 1B position.
In addition to focusing on bust players and what went wrong in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is a warning sign for things to come or if a bounceback is in the picture. Let's get started.
Bust Players at 1B
Victor Martinez (DET - 1B)
2015 Statistics: 485 PA, .245/.301/.366, 39 R, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 0 SB
From 2nd in MVP voting to leading off our bust players segment, Victor Martinez is ready for 2015 to come to a close. After setting career highs in average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage in 2014, he set career lows in average, on-base percentage, runs, home runs, RBI, wOBA, and wRC+.
There were quite a few alarming signs for the soon-to-be 37 year old DH. His walk rate plummeted to a career low 6.4% while his strikeout rate shot up 38% from 2014. The .253 BABIP was a steep fall from his career number of .311, and while a low BABIP may be a sign of poor luck, V-Mart's soft contact rate climbed by 43%.
Injuries played a big part in his troubles. He suffered a torn medial meniscus in his left knee in the offseason and never truly bounced back, ultimately leading to a DL-trip in May. It's reasonable to proclaim the left knee problems were a factor in his struggles versus RHP; his .219 average versus righties was a career-low and the first time he didn't eclipse .300 since 2010.
If there's a sign for optimism with V-Mart it's how he ended the season (.275 avg, 11 RBI in September). The Tigers offense still has a potent core at the top with Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera surrounding V-Mart and the DH tag should help him stay healthy. Steamer has V-Mart projected for a .290/.351/.448 split with 18 HR and 78 RBI, which is more in his line with his career track-record. I'll endorse the splits, but put me down for a few less HR and a few more RBI.
Freddie Freeman (ATL - 1B)
2015 Statistics: 481 PA, .276/.370/.471, 62 R, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB
Poor Freddie Freeman. He was a prime candidate for this section going into 2015, given the departures of Evan Gattis, Justin Heyward, and Justin Upton from the Atlanta Braves lineup, and as expected the lineup was horrendous around him. The Braves finished last in runs and slugging percentage while the likes of A.J Pierzynski and Adonis Garcia spent time in the cleanup spot protecting Freddie.
If the external environment wasn't enough, Freeman's body put the finishing touches on a disappointing year. He dealt with wrist and oblique injuries that forced him to miss 44 games. All in all Freeman finished as the No. 26 first baseman in fantasy leagues.
Overall, Freeman didn't have a terrible season. He matched his home run total from 2014 in 227 fewer plate appearances and was still worth 21.0 runs above average on offense. If you scaled out his numbers to 648 plate appearances (average of his previous four seasons) Freeman would have amassed 89 runs, 24 HR, and 84 RBI, which would've been enough to finish in the top 100.
Going forward it's difficult to trust Freeman, solely due to his anticipated supporting cast for next season. The Braves are in full "re-build" mode, having already moved Andrelton Simmons and rumors floating that Freeman may be available. I doubt Freeman gets moved, but the lack of offensive weapons limit his R/RBI ceiling for 2016. Look for a bounceback campaign in 2016, and if he comes after the fifth round in drafts he's worth a selection.
Adam LaRoche (CHW, 1B)
2015 Statistics: 484 PA, .207/.293/.340, 41 R, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 0 SB
LaRoche was part of the White Sox "winning" the 2014 offseason, signing a 2-year, $25M deal to serve to protect Jose Abreu in the lineup. And as with every team that "wins" the offseason, things never go as planned.
Aside from an injury-plagued 2011 (43 games), this was easily LaRoche's worst season. Every statistic listed above was a career-low, in addition to ISO (.133), wRC+ (75), and wOBA (.283). His offensive production was actually worth -16.3 runs, worst among first baseman with at least 450 plate appearances. To put how bad that was in perspective, the next worst was Joe Mauer at -7.6.
Injuries played a factor in LaRoche's 2015 struggles, but it's hard to trust him going forward. His plate discipline was poor as he swung and missed at more pitches off the plate and saw his K% spike by 33%. The homers should return (Steamer projects 21) but I can't see LaRoche hitting above .230. Combine the poor average with the depth at first base and you have enough reasons to pass on LaRoche in standard leagues come draft day.
Bust Players at 3B
Pablo Sandoval (BOS - 3B)
2015 Statistics: 505 PA, .245/.292/.366, 43 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB
If you're wondering what the downside is to a bad-ball hitter, look no further than the stat line above. Sandoval was horrendous in the first season of a 5-year/$95M deal, setting career-lows across the board and adding in some poor defense to boot.
There are multiple factors to Panda's struggles in 2015. He swung at more pitches off the plate, struck out more, walked less, and saw his groundball rate spike. Sandoval looked like a solid purchase after April (.312, 12 R, 11 RBI) but a terrible second half (.210, 3 HR, 17 RBI) solidified his place in the bust category. He dealt with leg and back issues until a case of pneumonia ended his season early.
It's easy to say Sandoval will bounce back from this campaign, and he probably will. But I don't see him being fantasy relevant in standard leagues come 2016. His numbers have regressed every season since 2011 with noticeable drops in his power. His .121 ISO was fourth-worst among 3B and his .366 SLG was the worst at third. Steamer projects Sandoval to hit .278/.330/.435 with 65 R, 15 HR, and 70 RBI. The boost in average I can support, but it's difficult to envision Sandoval's slugging reaching the .430 range when he's yet to reach .417 since 2013. Pass on Sandoval in standard leagues.
Anthony Rendon (WAS - 2B, 3B)
2015 Statistics: 355 PA, .264/.344/.363, 43 R, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 1 SB
All those people who warned you about Rendon's health in 2014 finally can say "I told you so!". Rendon was injured before the season even began, dealing with knee and oblique injuries that would derail his 2015 campaign. He only saw 80 games of action and wasn't able to regain the power he displayed in 2014 (21 HR).
While owners that gambled on Rendon in March ended up with a lemon, there's reason to believe a bounceback is around the corner. Don't forget Rendon was a 6th overall pick back in 2011. Rendon had a good slash line when batting 2nd (.276/.362/.398), his traditional spot in the order, and the Nationals were still top 10 in runs in 2015. And that was with a lineup saddled with injuries to Rendon, Denard Span, Wilson Ramos, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth.
Rendon may not reach his fantastic 2014 (.287 AVG, 111 R, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 17 SB) but I'd attribute that more to health than skill. Keep in mind Rendon only played in 101 minor-league games over two seasons before joining Washington in 2013. Steamer projects Rendon to hit .277/.350/.438 with 78 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI, and 7 SB in 134 games. If Rendon can play a full season, he'll cover the R+RBI totals easily. Given his health history though, the risk with Rendon outweighs the potential if you have to draft him in the sixth round or earlier. Pray for Rendon to slide in your draft, but don't count on his services.
