6 Post-Hype Fantasy Baseball Sleepers With Upside - Breakout Candidates for Later Rounds

March 17, 2026

Andy's six post-hype fantasy baseball sleepers and breakout candidates for 2026 drafts. His top later-round value picks with upside who can have big seasons.

While most managers chase the budding high-upside prospect in the final rounds of the draft, it is sometimes wise to pivot to a former highly-regarded prospect who has yet to find their footing. Over the past few seasons, we have seen former top prospects like Tyler Soderstrom, Michael Busch, and Zach Neto have a "later" breakout and become high-end fantasy assets.

In this piece, we will spotlight six under-the-radar post-hype breakout candidates going past pick 165. These players have disappointed in the past, but still have the skill set to enjoy a career season and prove high-end value at their current ADP. All ADP referenced is taken from NFBC drafts as of February 1.

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Jordan Lawlar, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

NFBC ADP: 336.5

There may not be a player who fits the "post-hype" profile more than Jordan Lawlar. The former is the sixth overall pick from the 2021 MLB Draft, who was viewed as a consensus top-10 prospect for most of his time in the minor leagues and was at the top of most stash lists as he approached his MLB debut.

Through 91 career games at Triple-A, Lawlar has posted an impressive .328/.414/.576 slash line with 25 doubles, 18 home runs, and 24 stolen bases. However, over 42 MLB games (split between the 2023 and 2025 seasons), Lawlar has looked like a completely different player.

Over this stint, Lawlar has posted a much lower .165/.241/.237 slash line with seven doubles, no home runs, and only three stolen bases. In 2025, he showed some progress, as he raised his OPS to .545, compared to the low .335 OPS he posted in his first stint back in 2023.

Under the hood, he generated a low .253 xwOBA with a 34.1% hard-hit rate, both of which are well below the average marks. However, he did generate a promising 107.9 mph max exit velocity, signaling that the raw power is there. Lawlar also generated an elite 34.1% pull AIR% rate, suggesting that when he does make contact, he could total a high amount of home runs.

A deeper look shows he was effective against fastballs, generating a .338 xwOBA, but stumbled against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, posting .166 xwOBA and .091 xwOBA, respectively.

However, unlike previous seasons, Lawlar will be given ample time to work out these struggles. With Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (knee) set to miss the start of the season and Corbin Carroll's (hand) status in question, Lawlar faces minimal competition for an Opening Day role. The Diamondbacks have presumably moved Lawlar to the outfield this spring to provide him with the best opportunity for everyday at-bats.

He has already begun to make headlines in camp, launching two home runs with a .333/.524/.733 line. Given his elite pull rate and high-end speed, Lawlar has 20/20 upside if he can take the next step in his development.

Jordan Lawlar goes yard for his third hit of the day. Changeup over the middle. 104 mph off the bat. pic.twitter.com/0TuHaTkOJT

— Alex Weiner (@alexjweiner) February 23, 2026

Jac Caglianone, OF, Kansas City Royals

NFBC ADP: 203.6

Even though the former sixth overall pick is among the most popular post-hype breakout candidates this season, he remains quite underpriced in drafts and is a top pick past 200 in current ADP. Caglianone flashed incredible power upside, moving through the Kansas City system, hitting for a .337/.408/.617 slash line with 14 doubles, 20 home runs, and a 57:33 K:BB over 66 games between Double-A and Triple-A before moving up to the majors.

However, in the majors, Caglianone was unable to find his footing, posting a disappointing .157/.237/.295 line with only seven long balls over 62 games. Even though his time in the majors was not long, managers are already throwing the former top prospect to the side on draft day.

I would suggest doing the opposite, as his metrics were quite strong and suggest he has 25+ HR upside in a full-time role in 2026. Under the hood, Caglianone generated an elite 77.4 mph average bat speed with a 12.0% barrel rate. He also posted a strong 114.1 max exit velocity, placing him in the top 10% of all major leagues.

The 23-year-old is currently penciled in to be the everyday right fielder, and his 98th percentile arm strength should keep him in the lineup, even if his bat takes some time to adjust.

Managers should not take spring training statistics into serious account when evaluating players, but seeing Caglianone post an eye-catching 120.1 mph max exit velocity with a 66.7% hard-hit rate is very promising. For those in points formats, Caglianone is still a top target as he only struck out at a low 22.4% rate despite his struggles at the plate.

THE SAGUAROS ARE BACK!

After Carter Jensen hit his first career spring training homerun, Jac Caglianone follows suit a few innings later with a 115.4 MPH BOMB to pull the @Royals within one here in Surprise pic.twitter.com/MQUWDW9LxM

— MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) February 23, 2025

Cam Smith, OF, Houston Astros

NFBC ADP: 376.9

The former 14th overall pick from the 2024 MLB Draft was a surprise addition to the Astros Opening Day roster last spring, after playing just 32 MiLB games. While he showed promise at times, the former top prospect would finish his debut season carrying an underwhelming .236/.312/.358 slash line with 21 doubles, nine home runs, and eight stolen bases.

He generated a similar .235 xBA but drew walks at a solid 8.7% rate and generated an above-average 74.5 mph average bat speed.

Smith enjoyed a promising first half, posting a .277/.347/.418 line but saw his production crater in the second half, with a significantly lower .154/.247/.242 line. Despite this, Smith began to find his footing in September and carries some momentum into his second season.

As shown in the chart above, Smith's underlying xwOBA against all three pitch types was quite high in the first half but declined sharply in July and August. However, in September, Smith raised his xwOBA against fastballs to .363, the third-highest mark in a given month. Additionally, he began to find his footing against offspeed pitches, posting a .278 xwOBA, also the third-highest mark in a given month.

Additionally, similar to Lawlar, Smith has a viable path to everyday at-bats, putting him in a position to not only build on his late-season surge but also take the next step in his development. Smith is expected to be the primary right fielder and could run away with the job if he can turn in a more productive start than Joey Loperfido or Zach Cole.

Remember, Smith had only 32 total games in the minor leagues, and only five with Double-A (none at Triple-A) before reaching the majors. Growing pains were inevitable. Strike gold on one of your final picks here.

Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 166.5

Update - Crews has been optioned to Triple-A and will begin the regular season in the minor leagues. As a result, he is only worth drafting in deep 15-team/NL-only formats.

The No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft was a consensus top prospect after graduating and joining the Nationals following his dominant run at LSU. However, following a string of injuries and subpar performances, Crews could be had at a nice discount in 2026 drafts, despite being only 24 years old.

Over two seasons in the majors, Crews has appeared in just 116 games and held a .211/.282/.352 line with a .634 OPS. However, he possesses the perfect skill set to become a valuable contributor in rotisserie leagues, as he hit 13 home runs and stole 29 bases over this stint. On a 162-game pace, Crews would have hit 18 HRs with 41 SBs. Pretty solid, right?

Last summer, Crews posted a low .620 OPS and a high 27.7% K% over his first 45 games before suffering an oblique injury, which kept him on the 60-day IL through most of August. However, upon his return, Crews would hit for a higher .643 OPS but more importantly, lowered his K% to 18.8%.

During this stretch, he also raised his BB% to 10.1%, compared to the lower 6.4% he held before the injury. The more he gets on base, the more stolen base opportunities he possesses.

While his career .211 AVG will likely be a weak point in his fantasy profile, finding a potential 20/40 candidate in this part of the draft is rare. Crews has that outcome in his profile and is a top breakout pick, sitting just above pick 175 in the current ADP.

Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 167.5

The final post-hype hitter we will spotlight is a backstop. While some may argue that Alvarez already had his breakout season when he launched 25 home runs back in 2023, he took a step back in 2024, with just 11 home runs, and is quickly falling into "byust" territory.

However, the former No. 1 overall prospect began to show signs of growth in 2025 and is well-positioned for a true Year-4 breakout season.

In 2025, Alvarez had a late start due to a hand injury but stumbled in his return to action, posting a modest .236/.319/.333 slash line with only three home runs over 35 games. This slow start sent him to Triple-A Syracuse and to the waiver wire in all leagues.

When all seemed lost for the backstop, Alvarez flipped the script when he returned to Queens in late July. Over his last 41 games of the season, Alvarez would post a .276/.360/.561 slash line with nine doubles and eight home runs.

The young catcher credited his turnaround to a swing change that was driving his resurgence in the second half. With the other backstop on the roster being Luis Torres, a long-time backup, Alvarez should see an everyday role and should be a top target as a No. 2 catcher in all two-catcher leagues. Given the upside he flashed in the second half, Alvarez could push for a 30-HR season if he can continue this trajectory.

While his ADP looks higher in NFBC formats, most of those drafts are two-catcher leagues, which pushes them up the board. Alvarez holds a very low price tag in most one-catcher leagues.

Reid Detmers, SP, Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP: 347.5

Reid Detmers has been on "post-hype breakout watch" for much of the past few seasons but has yet to live up to the title. However, in 2025, Detmers began to show substantial progress and carries some solid upside heading into 2026.

After operating primarily as a starter, Detmers was moved over to the bullpen last summer and tossed 63 2/3 innings to the tune of a 3.96 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. After posting a 4.21 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP from March through June, the southpaw flipped the script in the second half. From July 1 on, Detmers posted an impressive 3.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, with a 10.9 K/9 over his last 27 1/3 innings of the season.

The prominent tweak Detmers made to his repertoire down the stretch was to increase his slider usage and completely drop his sinker, as shown below.

His slider was quite effective, posting a .294 xwOBA with an elite 40.8% whiff rate. This was the first time his slider posted a whiff rate above 40.0%. Additionally, this allowed the four-seamer to generate better results, as it posted a .300 xwOBA, compared to the much higher.341 xWOBA and .391 xwOBA it generated over the past two seasons.

While it is yet to be seen if Detmers can carry this success into a full-time starting role in 2026, the changes he made put him in a prime spot to provide massive value at his cost and finally enjoy the long-awaited breakout season.

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