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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for, if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
Gleyber Torres hasn’t quite been able to hit the highs he did in his first two Major League seasons when he connected on 56 combined home runs in the 2018 and 2019 seasons combined. Pair that with a .250 average and .297 on-base percentage to start the season and it’s possible that whoever has Torres on their roster in your league isn't feeling great about the infielder’s production. However, it’s likely Torres’ average won’t stay that low for long. Even during his early breakout seasons, hitting the ball hard on a routine basis wasn't a constant in the 28-year-old’s numbers. Now it is.
Gleyber Torres Hard-Hit Rate By Season:
- 2018: 36.8%
- 2019: 36%
- 2020: 38%
- 2021: 35.7%
- 2022: 49.5%
Not only is the hard-hit rate on track to be a personal best for Torres, but it’s also one of the best in the league, currently ranking in the 89th percentile. Good things generally tend to happen when a player hits the ball hard on a consistent basis. That’s already the case, in part, for Torres as he’s logged five home runs in 119 plate appearances, more than half his 2021 tally in a little more than a fifth of the plate appearances.
The average is likely to turn around too, and it’s not just because of the infielder’s .253 BABIP either, although that’s a big part of it. Torres isn’t striking out nearly as much as he used to. The lowest Torres’ strikeout rate has been in a full season was 20.2% last year, but he’s tapered that number down to 15.1% this season. The increased contact is certainly helping, especially when much of it is quality contact. Torres is also still playing home games at Yankee Stadium and most of his road games in the American League East. That certainly doesn’t hurt in terms of home run production. Per Statcast in the last three years, the home stadiums of the Orioles (second), Blue Jays (fifth), and Yankees (10th) all ranked in the top 10 in terms of Park Factors where home runs were concerned.
I’d try trading another shortstop like Brandon Crawford or a streaming rotation option for Torres. Or perhaps a reliever who isn’t the favorite for saves but is part of a committee.
Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers
Is it possible for a player who entered Wednesday tied for the fifth-most home runs in the league to be undervalued? The same player who has as many home runs as Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, and Juan Soto? Yes it is, and that player is Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez.
The 27-year-old has done nothing but make quality contact this season with the Brewers. In 135 plate appearances so far, Tellez has registered a 47.3% hard-hit rate and an 18.7%-barrel rate. So far, only Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Mike Trout have more barrels than Tellez’s 17 this season.
In addition to his elite quality of contact metrics – Tellez ranks in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate and the 97th percentile in barrel rate – he’s also been a consistent source of runs batted in for both the Brewers and fantasy managers. Only Judge, Stanton, and Ramirez have more RBI than Tellez’s 29 so far. The RBI opportunities should only continue for the first baseman, who should continue to benefit from hitting behind Christian Yelich (.340 on-base percentage), Luis Urias (.404 on-base percentage), and when healthy, Willy Adames (11.4% walk rate, 15 extra-base hits).
What is perhaps most intriguing here though, and why you should consider trading for Tellez unless the first baseman on your fantasy team is called Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, or Paul Goldschmidt, is the positive regression potentially coming in the batting average department. Tellez’s .290 xBA provides a stark contrast compared to his actual .236 average, but it’s not just that either. He’s also sporting a .253 BABIP. The former Blue Jay has always logged a low BABIP. His career BABIP is .277, which is already low to begin with and lower than both the 2022 league average (.283) and the 2021 league average (.292). The .253 metric this season points to even more production coming from Tellez.
Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins
While the Twins haven’t been a juggernaut from a run-scoring standpoint – 19 teams had scored more runs than Rocco Baldelli’s club entering play on Wednesday — they boast a number of above-average on-base threats at the top of their lineup in Byron Buxton (16 extra-base hits in 2022), Carlos Correa (.355 career on-base percentage) and Luis Arraez (.411 on-base percentage in 2022).
The presence of the trio, not to mention Trevor Larnach (.313 average, .365 on-base percentage), gives the Twins plenty of on-base threats for the likes of Jorge Polanco and Gary Sanchez to drive in potentially, but it’s Max Kepler who is the middle-of-the-order Twins hitter you’ll want on your fantasy team. More often than not, it’s been Kepler who has been stationed in the cleanup spot in the order for Minnesota when he starts. He’s seen 21 more plate appearances hitting cleanup than anywhere this season.
So far, he’s hitting .254 with a .353 on-base percentage, five home runs, and a stolen base in 133 plate appearances this season. That’s useful enough production, but if his underlying metrics are any indication, he should be even more productive. Kepler’s .315 xBA is actually closer to his on-base percentage than his actual average is. Furthermore, he’s continuing to hit the ball hard, with a 41.9% hard-hit rate that is right in line with his 42.5% hard-hit rate from last season. The outfielder is also continuing to collect barrels at a high rate, with a 10.8% barrel rate that is identical to his 2021 metric.
Perhaps most importantly, however, is that he’s figured out how to make more quality contact and do more damage against sliders and changeups. Prior to this season, Kepler hasn’t had an xwOBA north of .320 against either sliders or changeups in a single season.
Max Kepler Against Sliders And Changeups in 2022
- Sliders: .167 average, .292 slugging percentage, .252 wOBA, .288 xwOBA, .509 xSLG, .375 xwOBA
- Changeups: .381 average, .762 slugging percentage, .481 wOBA, .300 xBA, .652 xSLG, .393 xwOBA
Locked into a quality lineup and making plenty of quality contact, Kepler is certainly someone you’ll want on your fantasy team. If the manager in your league with Kepler on their roster is scared off by the low batting average, now’s the time to make a deal. I’d try moving a useful streaming option in the rotation for the Twins outfielder.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals
The left-handed-hitting outfielder has always turned in a productive showing where batting average is concerned. Since making his Major League debut in 2016, Benintendi has hit at least .266 in every season when he’s logged at least 100 plate appearances. In two of those years, he topped the .290 mark. So, at face value, Benintendi’s .314 average this season might not seem too outlandish. It might even seem plausible and sustainable given the outfielder’s track record. However, the underlying metrics tell a different story.
Benintendi is certainly striking out less, with a 14.6% strikeout rate that’s currently in the 84th percentile league-wide. That’s good. What’s not so good is that his hard-hit rate, which has a career-best 43.2% last season, has tapered off a bit to 39.8%. It’s not the end of the world by any means, but it’s certainly not ideal to see less hard contact for a player with a .102 ISO, a similarly down barrel rate (6.6%, down from 8.9% last season), and a rather high .346 BABIP. There’s also a stark difference between Benintendi’s expected metrics so far:
Andrew Benintendi In 2022:
- .304 average
- .247 xBA
- .340 wOBA
- .324 xwOBA
In short, it’s a batch of statistics that screams regression. The lack of power, Benintendi has just six extra-base hits in 141 plate appearances so far after totaling 46 in 538 plate appearances last season, certainly isn’t ideal either. There’s also the chance Kansas City trades him this summer to a contender where he won’t receive similarly consistent playing time, although that's purely speculative. That would cap his value in redraft leagues for the season. Now’s the time to trade him.
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
One of Boston’s best players this season, Bogaerts is batting .338 with a .399 on-base percentage, three home runs, and a pair of stolen bases through 148 plate appearances during the 2022 campaign. If the batting average holds, it’ll be his fourth straight year hitting .295 or better, and the seventh time in the last eight seasons he’s hit above .285. All of those metrics should help drive up the shortstop's already high perceived value in trade negotiations for fantasy managers. Because while he’s been effective this season, there’s reason to believe his metrics might not be sustainable this season.
The decrease in power, for one, certainly isn’t ideal. Bogaerts’ ISO has dropped to .128 this season. If the season ended today, it would be his lowest ISO in a season since 2015, which was just his second full season in the Majors. The shortstop’s barrel rate is also down so far to 6.8% after it finished at 9.7% in 2022. Bogaerts logged 41 barrels that season on 423 batted balls. He has just seven so far on 103 batted balls.
There’s also a rather high .420 BABIP that seems destined to dwindle and decrease rather noticeably at some point. The shortstop’s BABIP hasn’t finished above .335 since, as it happens, the 2015 season. Bogaerts should, and probably will, still be productive when the regression comes. His .347 xwOBA, .285 xBA and 42.7% hard-hit rate suggest as much. But he might not be this productive all season long.
It’s also worth mentioning that if the Red Sox trade away players at the deadline, the veteran could find himself with a new club in July or August. Of course, that’s purely speculative on my part, but a switch to a new home stadium could slightly impact Bogaerts’ rest-of-season fantasy value in redraft leagues.
The veteran would be productive in most all ballparks on a consistent basis, but it is worth noting the slight difference in his career metrics at Fenway Park and away from Boston. It might not be a major factor, but it’s something to keep in mind for the season’s final months if a trade does happen.
Xander Bogaerts Career Home And Road Splits
- Home: 2187 PA, 82 HR, .312 average, .374 OBP, .186 ISO, 8.5 BB%, 17.9 K%
- Road: 2223 PA, 62 HR, .271 average, .336 OBP, .150 ISO, 8.5 BB%, 18.8 K%
Don’t go looking trade Bogaerts for anything less than a similarly elite fantasy player. He’s still going to be productive. But if you can pull off a deal for another impact player plus a second player who can help your team, it might be more beneficial in the long run.
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