RADIO
After a seven-game slate on Thursday, we have eight games on the schedule to start your weekends. Every team has under 20 games left in their schedule, and we are rapidly approaching the playoffs. Something to keep an eye on is where teams might sit players. Teams can be tanking, and that has a lot of impact on lines.
I like the games on the schedule tonight. The marquee matchup for me is the Knicks hosting the Orlando Magic. You will read more about that in a second, but the two teams are separated by only half a game in the Eastern Conference standings. I'm also looking forward to the Miami Heat playing on the road in Oklahoma City and Giannis vs. Lebron in the late-game ESPN window.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Friday, March 8. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Orlando Magic (-1.5) at New York Knicks (207.5 total)
Man, can the New York Knicks really use a good win tonight? I do believe Jalen Brunson will play in this game, and I'm backing my Knicks at home. New York is just 1-3 in their last four games, and things haven't been looking good. Conversely, Orlando comes in on a five-game win streak and is playing really good ball.
Orlando is averaging 111.2 points and shooting 55 percent over that five-game sample. From three, they are hitting 36.7 percent of their attempts and knocking down at least ten per game. I'm betting on some regression from the Magic offense in this game. Orlando is shooting 46.8 percent on FGAs and 35.4 percent on threes on the road this season. A stat that I hate from Orlando's five-game winning streak is that they are only putting up 75.6 field goal attempts per game. That's a very low shot volume, which makes it contingent on shooting very well. This Knicks team is holding opponents to 84.4 FGAs in their last five home games. The Magic also rely a lot on getting to the foul line, and I never like to just pencil in foul shots because every game is officiated differently.
The Knicks have their backs against the wall in this one, and it's kind of a must-win. New York is 0-3 against Orlando this season, so they will lose any head-to-head tiebreak should they be tied in the standings. They could use any little edge, and tonight can go a long way toward determining seeding. On Tuesday, the Knicks fell behind early to the Atlanta Hawks. They battled back and almost came fully back, but the Hawks ultimately pulled away. On Wednesday, the Magic came back from down 21 to beat the Wizards. The narrative for both teams could have been different going into this game had the ball bounced the other way. I liked the fight I saw with the Knicks, and I love them to pick up a huge win tonight in front of the MSG crowd.
The Big Ragu balled out 🔥🔥
28 PTS | 6 3PM | 6 REB | 4 AST | 3 STL pic.twitter.com/DtS0DOZU4f
— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) March 4, 2024
The Pick: Knicks ML (+100 FanDuel)
Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) at Memphis Grizzlies (215 total)
Speaking of the Atlanta Hawks, I watched the entire game they played against the Knicks on Tuesday, anxiously rooting for them to blow it. They got off to a super hot start and won the first quarter 33-15. They followed that up by winning the first quarter 31-28 at home against the Cavaliers on Wednesday. Against the Brooklyn Nets on March 2, Atlanta went into Brooklyn and won the opening quarter 28-21. Riding a three-game first-quarter win streak, I'm going to back them to continue that tonight in Memphis.
They are averaging 30.7 points on 53.7 percent field-goal shooting and a ridiculous 47.8 percent from three. Those averages are obviously very hard to sustain, but I particularly like the makeup of this Hawks roster early in games. De'Andre Hunter is leading the way by averaging 6.3 points in their last three games. Dejounte Murray (4.7), Jalen Johnson (4.7), Saddiq Bey (4.3), and Bogdan Bogdanovic (4.0) round out five players averaging four or more points. Memphis has been pretty good lately, but I prefer the Hawks roster compared to Memphis to start this game. Atlanta has a bunch of players that can swing any quarter when they are feeling it. It's a free-flowing offense that can be good or bad; I'm hoping it's the former tonight. Jalen Johnson is out tonight, but others can step up in his absence.
In the last three games, opponents have only hit 32 percent of their field goals against the Hawks. They are also shooting 22.2 percent from three. The Knicks had an awful quarter early this week, but it's entirely possible the Grizzlies can do something similar. I just like the Hawk's ability to space the floor and get out and run.
Building was on Bey Watch last night
🌊 23 PTS
🌊 8-14 FG
🌊 3 3PM@SaddiqBey x @UPS pic.twitter.com/2gHKqb81YY— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) March 7, 2024
The Pick: Hawks First Quarter ML (-130 ESPN BET)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
New Orleans Pelicans (-8.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (221.5 total)
On Tuesday, I easily cashed one of my picks when I took the team total under 110.5 for the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors only put up 98 and got smashed 139-98 at home to the New Orleans Pelicans. I'm going to ride the defensive wave of the Pelicans and take the Sixers under here.
Without Joel Embiid this season, Philadelphia is averaging 111.6 PTs per game. Since returning from the All-Star break, the Sixers are averaging 106.8 PTs on 43 percent field-goal shooting. From deep, they are shooting a very respectable 36.9 percent, but as we've seen with the Pelicans, they are a tough team to shoot well against from three. New Orleans is holding opponents to 34.5 percent from three, which is the lowest in the NBA. In their game on Tuesday, the Raptors shot 13/44 (29%) from beyond the arc. New Orleans is holding opponents to 43 percent field goal shooting and 105.7 PTs per game in seven games since the All-Star break.
Philadelphia averages a lot of shots late in the shot clock, which makes me like the under even more. If the Sixers are spending a lot of time looking for shots against a big Pelicans that can switch every position, it might be a long game for Philly. New Orleans is also in the top ten for the fewest fastbreak points allowed and in the top five for the fewest points in the paint allowed. I was so impressed with their performance on Tuesday. The Sixers' leading scorer, Tyrese Maxey, is out tonight.
scary hours pic.twitter.com/Cu3pj2IEg8
— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) March 6, 2024
The Pick: Sixers Team Total Under 106.5 (-110 ESPN BET)
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