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Mike gives his fantasy football bold predictions for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. Should you start or sit Anthony Richardson, D'Andre Swift, Brian Thomas?
Week 5 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Anthony Richardson, D'Andre Swift, Brian Thomas Jr., Stefon Diggs, and Erick All Jr.
Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely outcomes, they are things I believe could happen this week.
Let’s look at my five bold predictions for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season.
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Anthony Richardson…
Finishes as the overall QB1
Unfortunately, Richardson left the Week 4 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers early in the contest after taking some rough hits. While he left after playing only 20% of the snaps, the second-year quarterback had 71 passing yards on only four attempts. Furthermore, Richardson had three rushing attempts for 24 yards, scoring 5.2 fantasy points in limited action.
The young quarterback has struggled with accuracy, especially in the middle part of the field. However, he is already one of the NFL’s top deep-ball throwers, totaling multiple 50-plus passing touchdowns this season. Fantasy players should be encouraged by Richardson’s limited play in Week 4 against an elite defense. He gets a significantly more appealing matchup on Sunday.
ANTHONY RICHARDSON 60-YARD DIME TO Alec Pierce.
📺: #HOUvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/p0xddm5Kl1— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
Richardson faces the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5. They have surrendered 22.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year, the most in the NFL. Deshaun Watson is the only quarterback not to have at least 338 passing yards or four touchdowns against the Jaguars in 2024. Yet, he still scored 15.8 fantasy points despite having under 190 passing yards.
Hopefully, Richardson can play against the AFC South division rivals. While many thought he wouldn’t practice on Wednesday, the former Florida star was a limited participant. Furthermore, Richardson is dealing with an oblique strain rather than a hip pointer, increasing the odds he plays against Jacksonville.
D'Andre Swift…
Has his second consecutive top-3 finish
Many waiver-wire articles called for fantasy players to drop Swift after an awful Week 3 performance. However, the veteran running back made everyone look foolish, putting together one of the best games of his career. He had 16 rushing attempts for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams.
More importantly, Swift had a massive role in the passing game, totaling seven receptions for 72 receiving yards. The veteran running back ended the game with 26 half-point PPR fantasy points. By comparison, he had 16.4 fantasy points combined over the first three weeks. While some called last week’s performance a fluke, expect him to have another top-3 finish in Week 5.
Swift faces the Carolina Panthers this week. The Panthers have the worst run defense in the NFL. They have surrendered 28.6 fantasy points per game to running backs, the second most in the league. Running backs have had at least 131 rushing yards and 26.6 fantasy points in all but one game against the Panthers this season.
Furthermore, Carolina has given up at least 200 rushing yards or two touchdowns to running backs in all but the one game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Unfortunately, Zamir White and Alexander Mattison couldn’t take advantage of this awful defense. Yet, fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised when Swift has his way with it.
Brian Thomas Jr.…
Ends the week as a top-5 wide receiver
While Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the two rookie wide receivers getting all the national attention, Thomas is quietly putting up WR1 numbers. The former LSU star is the WR15 over the first four weeks, averaging 12.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He is the highest-scoring member of the Jacksonville Jaguars, averaging more fantasy points per game than Travis Etienne Jr. and Trevor Lawrence.
Last week, Thomas had the best performance of his short professional career, totaling six receptions on nine targets for 86 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 18.9 fantasy points against the Houston Texans. After being primarily a vertical threat over the first two weeks, the rookie has become Lawrence’s most reliable receiver, seeing nine targets in back-to-back contests.
More importantly, his matchup in Week 5 is outstanding. The Indianapolis Colts use Cover 3 coverage more than any other team in the NFL. Last year, Calvin Ridley thrived against the Colts because of their heavy Cover 3 coverage. Thomas has dominated in that role for Jacksonville, averaging over four yards per route run against Cover 3.
No defense uses Cover-3 more than the Indianapolis Colts.
Which Jacksonville WR is set to benefit? Well, typically, WR1's feast vs. Cover-3. That's what we saw from Calvin Ridley in 2023.
And Brian Thomas Jr. has only expanded on that in 2024: https://t.co/Vhx8FQWr6w pic.twitter.com/RMZALtYycT
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 2, 2024
Furthermore, the rookie receiver has done an outstanding job of getting open. According to Fantasy Points Data’s average separation score tool, Thomas has the fifth-highest grade against man coverage this year. Fantasy players could see the former LSU star put up his first career 20-point fantasy performance this week.
Stefon Diggs…
Scores single-digit fantasy points against his former team
Hopefully, fantasy players sold high on Diggs after his two-touchdown and 18.9 half-point PPR fantasy point performance in Week 1. While the veteran is the WR10 for the year, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game, his production has been mostly fluky. More importantly, his fantasy trade value is about to take a massive hit.
The former superstar hasn’t had a receiving touchdown since Week 1 despite averaging nine targets per game. More importantly, Diggs needed a rushing touchdown off a broken trick play to score double-digit fantasy points last week against a poor Jacksonville Jaguars defense despite the Houston Texans missing Tank Dell and Joe Mixon.
Many believe Diggs will have an elite fantasy performance in a revenge game against his former team. However, expect the Buffalo Bills to do everything to shut down the veteran wide receiver, as it is a revenge game for them, too. The Bills have held wide receivers to only one receiving touchdown this season, with Michael Wilson scoring against them in Week 1.
Furthermore, Buffalo has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the first month (15.5). Meanwhile, Diggs is 0-1 against his former teams this year after the Texans lost to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. While he scored 14.9 fantasy points in that game, it took a season-high 12 targets to hit that total. Keep the veteran receiver out of your lineup against his former team.
Erick All Jr.…
Has his first career top-12 finish
The tight-end position has been a nightmare for fantasy players over the first four weeks. George Kittle (11.9) and Dallas Goedert (10.5) are the only two tight ends to average more than 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game this year. However, there are a few under-the-radar tight ends who fantasy players should expect to burst onto the scene soon.
One of those tight ends is All. The fourth-round rookie is a talented player. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his college career. He is only the TE26 over the first month, averaging 3.6 fantasy points per game. Yet, the rookie has been extremely productive with limited opportunities.
All ranks first in targets per route run rate (32%), first in first down per route run rate (13%), and third in yards per route run (2.16) among tight ends with at least 35 routes over the first four weeks. More importantly, he is getting more snaps as the season progresses. Last week, the rookie played a career-high 60% of the snaps.
Cincinnati Bengals rookie TE Erick All continues to be awesome with limited opportunities:
(among TEs with 35+ routes run)- 32% target per route run rate (TE1)
- 13% first-down per route run rate (TE1)
- 2.16 yards per route run (TE3)— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 1, 2024
By comparison, Mike Gesicki played a season-low 33% of the snaps in Week 4. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens have surrendered 11.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the second most in the NFL, despite not giving up a touchdown. The Ravens have allowed tight ends to have 100 or more receiving yards in two of the past three games. After seeing four targets in three consecutive games, All is primed for a breakout performance against the division rivals.
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