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Justin Dunbar advises fantasy football managers of NFL offenses and busts to avoid during the fantasy playoffs for 2021.
Fantasy football is an easy game, right? Just start the right players and profit!
If only it were that easy. With injuries mounting, fantasy managers are left scrambling to their bench or the waiver wire to find suitable replacements. However, don't have that player come from the wrong teams.
In fantasy football, the state of the offense can often drive production, and in this case, these eight offenses are a net negative that you want to avoid at all costs. Who are they? Let us take a closer look.
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Detroit Lions
With D'Andre Swift going down due to injury, the state of the Lions offense gets even worse. The NFL's only winless team is averaging the third-fewest points/game, meaning that fantasy production has to come from pure volume as opposed to touchdowns.
That can work for backup running back Jamaal Williams as a low-end RB2, but that is solely because the Lions have the fifth-highest early-down run rate, excluding the fourth quarter (where game script plays a factor), over the past four weeks. Since Week 3, quarterback Jared Goff hasn't finished higher than 14th in a given week, while the receiving corps is a mess; targets are being split between Josh Reynolds, Khalif Raymond, and Amon-Ra St.Brown. T.J. Hockenson was an exciting marquee tight end option at the beginning of the season, but he's averaging just 7.06 PPR fantasy points since the first two weeks of the season.
In other words, Swift was really all this offense had going for fantasy purposes. Williams will fill in adequately for him while he's out, but try to avoid ancillary pieces of this offense at all costs.
Jacksonville Jaguars
One of two teams to rank below the Lions in points/game? That would be the Jacksonville Jaguars, who haven't exactly helped the development of quarterback Trevor Lawrence this season.
Overall, Jacksonville has the second-lowest receiving grade, per Pro Football Focus, while Lawrence ranks dead-last in yards/pass attempt (6). Marvin Jones Jr. is entrenched as the team's #1 receiver, but his 1.30 yards/route run is the lowest of his career. From there, Laviska Shenault Jr. is finally seeing some snaps in the slot, yet Laquon Treadwell is out-snapping him. Add in the injury to tight end Dan Arnold, and it's a mess.
Unless you have a healthy James Robinson, you should certainly avoid the Jaguars offense. I'm very interested to see how this offense will look next year, as many believe the offensive scheme may be problematic right now with rookie head coach Urban Meyer. Either way, there isn't much to get excited about this season.
Houston Texans
The only team to rank lower than the Jaguars in points/game? The Houston Texans, who rank dead-last with 14.9 points/game.
At the beginning of the season, receiver Brandin Cooks was thriving as the dominant alpha receiver in this offense. Now? Not so much. Since Week 3, he's averaging just 8.7 fantasy points per game, and is trending towards being more of a boom-or-bust WR3 without enough consistent target domination. Meanwhile, although the backfield has been condensed to Rex Burkhead and David Johnson, both present very little upside being part of the league's lowest-scoring offense.
Cooks is worth starting if you need to, but, from there, don't start a Houston Texan. Not even if you're the biggest Texans fan out there.
New York Jets
Here is a fun split for Jets fans:
- Games with Zach Wilson: 14.4 points/game
- Games without Zach Wilson: 24.5 points/game
To say that Wilson, last year's second-overall pick, has struggled this season would be an understatement. He is PFF's lowest-graded passer, has the league's highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.2%), and has an absurd 4-10 touchdown-interception ratio. Is it a coincidence that, in Wilson's return back to the lineup, that rookie receiver Elijah Moore had his worst finish since the last time Wilson played a full game? I don't think so. Even if he ultimately ends up as the long-term answer for the Jets, he's prohibiting the receivers from producing at the level some of them are capable of them.
Meanwhile, with running back Michael Carter on injured reserve, the team is using a three-way backfield committee headlined by Tevin Coleman, Austin Walter, and Ty Johnson. Does that sound appealing? I don't think so. With the Eagles, Saints, Dolphins, Bucs, and Bills all left on their schedule, it is going to be difficult to start a New York Jets player down the stretch.
Atlanta Falcons
Remember when the Falcons were supposed to turn a corner offensively with head coach Arthur Smith? Now, star receiver Calvin Ridley is unlikely to play this season, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts hasn't finished in the top-ten for tight ends in each of the past five weeks, and the offense is condensed around one key player: Cordarrelle Patterson.
As a running back/wide receiver hybrid, Patterson has flourished, currently ranking as the RB9 in PPR fantasy points despite missing a game due to a sprained ankle. As the season has gone on, though, he's being utilized more as a prototypical running back, which could come back tonite him moving forward. Plus, it places more pressure on the receiving core of Russell Gage, Tajae Sharpe, and Olamide Zaccheaus, none of whom offer any sort of consistency whatsoever.
You should start Patterson on a weekly basis. Outside of that, though, there isn't a lot of optimism surrounding the sixth-worst scoring offense. Matt Ryan, who has lowered his average depth of target (7.3 yards) by two yards, is averaging the lowest yards/attempt (6.9) of his career since 2013. Essentially, if Patterson can't score, it's unlikely the offense is going to score. If that's the case, move away from non-Patterson Falcons players. Their offensive potential heading into the season was enticing, but, now, it's time to cut bait.
New England Patriots
The Patriots? What? By no means in New England have a poor "real-life" offense. After all, they rank seventh in points/game! However, there is a difference between "real-life" value and fantasy value, which is rearing it's ugly head here.
Let me put it this way. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has finished as a QB1 just three times this season, and is serving as the game manager of a run-heavy offense. That is greatly impacting the team's receiving corps, as both Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne aren't seeing the consistent target volume they need. Meanwhile, the tight end room is a committee situation between Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, further complicating the situation.
If there was one clear lead back in this offense, than they could benefit from a strong offensive line and a lot of opportunities. Instead, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are splitting the carries, while Brandon Bolden is playing all of the third-down snaps. It's a very frustrating situation for fantasy managers, and, in the end, it's hard to start any Patriot on any given week. Add in that they still have to face the Bills twice and the Colts in their next three games, and their outlook gets even more bleak. They may continue to win games playing their style of football, but it will come at the cost of fantasy production.
New York Giants
As we head into Week 13, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has the lowest big-time throw rate (1.8%) in the NFL. Furthermore, he's tied with Matt Ryan for the lowest percentage of passes thrown 20+ yards down the field. In the other words, it's clear the third-year signal caller isn't going to inhibit high-ceiling outcomes for Giants receivers.
Then, there's the inconsistent target pecking order within the receiving corps. We haven't gotten to see Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Kadarius Toney start together often this year, but when they have, it's been inconsistent in terms of who gets the targets. A lot of that is due to Jones' lack of aggressiveness, which impacts Golladay, while Shepard and Toney are both slot receivers that are quite redundant. When opportunities are split for an offense that is only averaging 18.4 points/game, you likely want to treat them just as low-end WR3s at best moving forward.
Running back Saquon Barkley played 87% of the Giants' snaps in Week 12, which was the highest amount for a running back. That being said, even his upside is limited playing a bottom-ten run-blocking offensive line, per PFF, in addition to a non-productive passing attack. He's the player in this offense to start moving forward, but after that, I'd look away from players on this offense, even their three well-known receivers. It's interesting that offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is now out of the picture, but do you trust Freddie Kitchens any more? I didn't think so.
Carolina Panthers
Oh, what we would all do for one full healthy season from Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers' star running back is out for the season after suffering an ankle injury, and the team is in a peculiar situation as they've fallen to 5-7 and out of the playoffs.
When McCaffrey initially went down with an injury earlier in the season, Chuba Hubbard was able to fill in for him as an RB2. Now, though, Ameer Abdullah is in the picture, and has actually out-snapped Hubbard in four straight games. Thus, we could see Hubbard and Abdullah split the work, with Abdullah taking more of the passing game volume, which isn't ideal for an ineffective offense.
As much as the return of Cam Newton is exciting, there isn't a lot he can do behind the league's third-lowest graded pass-blocking offensive line and lowest-graded receiving corps, per PFF, while Newton doesn't have the arm strength to give DJ Moore the downfield targets he needs to overcome the lack of touchdown upside here.
Based on pure target volume, you can start Moore as a high-floor WR2. Outside of that, though, who are you getting excited about? Yes, Carolina gets to face the Falcons next, but after that, it's the: Bills, Bucs, Saints, and Bucs again (for those who have matchups in Week 18). That.... isn't ideal. The idea of Newton leading a productive Panthers offense into the playoffs is exciting, but that no longer appears to be a viable possibility now.
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